Noonan’s 2026 Open Championship Outright Betting Picks

Noonan’s 2026 Open Championship Outright Betting Picks – My favorite thing about Open Championship Week, other than waking up early and watching golf while drinking my coffee, is watching a links course define the tournament on its own terms. No other major hands that much control back to the ground itself. Links golf is just different, and perhaps that has a lot to do with the appeal.

And Royal Birkdale, hosting for the 11th time since 1954, has always been one of the fairest tests the rota offers, a course that rewards good golf instead of hoping the bounces sort things out for you.

Few venues on the Open rotation carry as much recent star power in their winner’s circle. Arnold Palmer in 1961. Lee Trevino in 1971. Tom Watson in 1983. Padraig Harrington in 2008. And in 2017, Jordan Spieth closed with a birdie-eagle-birdie-birdie run across holes 14 through 17 to hold off Matt Kuchar. Nine years later, Birkdale returns to the calendar as a fundamentally different golf course.

Architect Tom Mackenzie of Mackenzie & Ebert has spent the years since 2017 reworking the back nine and streamlining the bunkering across the entire property, cutting the total bunker count from 147 down to 108.

Several of those removed had stopped posing a hazard to anyone hitting the ball at a modern tour distance and were doing nothing but punishing shorter hitters, so the club took them out. The larger structural move came on the old 14th and 15th. The par-3 14th is gone, the former par-5 15th slides down to become the new 14th, and a new par-3 15th has been built in its place, playing as the longest one-shotter on the course. It plays downwind more often than not, with a green big enough to hold a shot but a front entrance narrow enough to make the hole play smaller than the number suggests.

The front nine changed too. The 5th has been fully rebuilt, and where players once had to take a blind swing into a fairway they couldn’t see the landing area for, the green is now visible from the tee, a small change that should speed up decision-making but won’t necessarily make the hole any easier to birdie.

The 7th, previously a fairly straightforward short hole, now plays to a raised green ringed by the deepest bunkers on the golf course. And the 18th tee has been shifted left, turning a hole that used to bend right off the tee into something closer to a straightaway approach up to the clubhouse, with fairway bunkers now squarely back in play for a driver swung the way today’s players swing it.

None of that changes what actually defends Birkdale week to week, which is the same thing that always has: the wind coming off the Irish Sea and the willow scrub rough waiting for anything that misses a fairway.

Rory McIlroy, who slipped in a scouting round before Nick Faldo tipped off the entire internet that he’d been there, already ranks it among the best three courses on the rota. Tommy Fleetwood, who grew up five minutes from the front gate, gets to play his home Open on a course he’s known his whole life, just not quite the same course he knew in 2017.

As of this writing, the forecast for championship week indicates warm, mostly dry conditions with an afternoon breeze in the opening round. This would allow the course to firm up, making rollout control more important than anything else. Unless stronger winds or rain occur, the strategic options from the renovated holes could produce a winning score similar to or lower than that of 2017. However, if the wind increases, the long par 4s, exposed par 3s, and heavily bunkered areas could ensure that the course remains a challenging test despite its moderate 7,200+ yardage.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Royal Birkdale course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. The Open Championship is certainly one of those weeks, but I mostly stayed within that range. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

Though unintentional, my card gels with the trends that Pat noted in his preview. Five of my six selections have already found the winner’s circle in 2026 and have threatened the top of the board at a 2026 major.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Open Championship Outright Betting Picks

Collin Morikawa (35/1)

Collin Morikawa finished fifth in my Rabbit Hole model this week, but he’s hanging out around 10th on the odds board for Royal Birkdale. Morikawa has finished inside the top 10 in half of his 2026 starts, including a solo third-place finish last time out at the Travelers.

The 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year’s game has no weaknesses, is trending well, and is the prototype for what I’m looking for this week. He ranks among the top ten in Distance From the Edge of the Fairway (DFEF), SG: T2G when the field is leaning less-than-driver off the tee, and there’s a high penalty for finding the rough or missing the fairway. He also ranks fourth in SG: Ball-striking in windy conditions over the past 12 months, so he’s answering that important question if the winds ramp up over the coming days.

He’s been rolling it well of late, too, gaining strokes putting in four straight starts. He also ranks inside the top ten in SG: P when it’s difficult to gain on the greens, which has been the case at Royal Birkdale in the past.

Viktor Hovland (41/1)

I’m hesitant to say Viktor Hovland‘s tee-to-green game is all the way back to his late summer run of 2023, but it’s mighty close. Over the past two months, Hovland has gained strokes ball-striking in 87.5% of his rounds, the best rate in the field. When he’s gaining strokes putting, he’s cracking the TV leaderboard on Sundays. Pretty straightforward recipe, if I do say so myself. The good news is that Hovland has gained strokes putting in four of his five career Open Championship starts.

Hovland’s short game has improved significantly over the past few years, particularly on short-grass collection areas, which are on the menu this week at Royal Birkdale. He’s also one of the more accurate drivers of the ball when clubbing down, ranking third in DFEF when the field leans less than driver, which I believe will be the case this week.

Keep it in play off the tee, stripe your approach, and hole some putts. Let’s have a week, Vik.

Justin Rose (43/1)

Outside of hometown hero Tommy Fleetwood, perhaps there’d be no better Monday morning storyline than Justin Rose hoisting the Claret Jug in England a few days before his 46th birthday.

Rose has finished T2 twice at The Open, but he’s spoken so candidly about his emotional and historic connection to Royal Birkdale, a venue he describes as part of a lifelong “fairytale and love story” with The Open Championship. Birkdale is where Rose made his mark on the global stage as a 17-year-old amateur in 1998. He famously holed an unforgettable pitch shot on the 72nd hole, finishing tied for fourth and winning the Silver Medal.

“You’d take a major championship anywhere, but if they happen to line up a special venue, for me to do it at Royal Birkdale would be, obviously, a full-circle moment. To win it would kind of close the book in a way on my Open Championship story.”

Rose continues to show up when the lights are brightest. He finished T3 at Augusta, T10 at Aronimink, and T11 last month at Shinnecock Hills. He was also in the mix at The PLAYERS (T13) and Memorial (T12). He’s a big-game hunter, and this is the biggest game left on the board in 2026.

Russell Henley (55/1)

There’s a lot of cut-and-paste potential to Collin Morikawa‘s notes when thinking about what to write for Russell Henley. Henley doesn’t have a Claret Jug, but he’s finished inside the top ten in his past two Open Championship starts, and should be one of the first names you think of when it’s clear that accuracy is going to be rewarded that week.

Henley finished seventh in my Rabbit Hole model this week, but he grades out particularly well in two of my heaviest weighted stat categories. He’s first in DFEF and second in SG: T2G when adjusting for less-than-driver usage and a high missed-fairway penalty. Henley keeps bogeys off the scorecard too, which always matters, but matters a bit more when the scoring conditions are difficult. He just so rarely plays himself out of contention, and I think he gained another layer of confidence with his win at Colonial a few weeks ago. He has no business being north of 50/1 in the outright market.

Harris English (110/1)

It’s rare to see Harris English lose strokes putting, especially in Europe, but he struggled with the flat stick in Scotland, and it’s providing us with some solid value heading into Royal Birkdale. Last year’s runner-up at Royal Portrush has gained at least 1.5 strokes putting in his past four Open Championship starts. His tee-to-green play was excellent in Scotland, though, with DFEF and GIR% among the best in the field.

It’s tough to hide a poor short game at an Open, but English’s is good enough to elevate him, especially when the scoring conditions are tough. He ranks fifth in this week’s field in ARG Proximity on short grass and fifth in SG: Putting when it’s difficult to gain. I played English at 110, but also took eight places in the each-way market.

Kristoffer Reitan (125/1)

There were 150/1s in the market on Monday morning for Kristoffer Reitan, but I opted for the 125 to get each-way placings. Reitan’s debut season on the PGA Tour has been outstanding, highlighted by a Signature Event win at Quail Hollow back in May.

I’m hopeful that Reitan’s experience on the DP World Tour and on links-style tracks will translate this week. He’s an exceptional driver of the golf ball, often gaining with distance and accuracy, and he’s flashed a ceiling with his irons a few times this season, including the Quail Hollow win and his T6 at Memorial. His short game is up and down, but his splits show someone who’s better on short-grass runoffs than thick rough, which should help.