Pat Mayo’s 2026 Open Championship Picks, Bets, Player Rankings | British Open Winning Trends

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Royal Birkdale has always been a bit of an outlier on the Open rota. Unlike St. Andrews, where half the challenge is deciphering weird bounces and using every contour imaginable, or Carnoustie, where survival can be more important than scoring, Birkdale is remarkably straightforward by links standards.

Sitting between some gigantic dunes, the holes themselves wind through the valleys below on surprisingly flat fairways. There are very few blind shots (especially now), very few quirky bounces, and almost none of the randomness people associate with Open Championships. Architects intentionally flattened much of the property when the current clubhouse was built in the 1930s because they wanted the best shots to win. Novel idea. That’s one of the reasons Birkdale has persisted in the Open rota since the 1950s. 2026 will be the 11th time The Open returns to Royal Birkdale.

Stripe it, get rewarded. Don’t, get punished. Classic golf. It’s why the list of Open winners here reads like a Hall of Fame ballot.

Accuracy has always been the priority, but not simply hitting fairways. Players need to control trajectory, especially into firm greens that rarely allow approach shots to stop beside the hole.

Royal Birkdale continues to increase the amount of fine fescue and browntop bentgrass on its putting surfaces, creating exactly the type of firm, fast Open Championship conditions you’d expect. The greens should run somewhere around 11.5-12 on the Stimpmeter, which is faster than most Opens, but the real defense isn’t speed; it’s firmness combined with the wind.

Slightly offline approaches don’t finish ten feet away. Many a good-looking approach shot has been Mutombo’d by a strategically placed bump in the putting surface. They often release into tightly mown runoff areas where imagination becomes just as important as ball striking. And after the latest extensive renovations, it seems that creativity has become even more important.

Tom McKenzie’s work before the 2026 Open wasn’t about tricking players: It’s the inverse. He removed unnecessary bunkers in several places, exposed more of the property’s natural links contours, and dramatically expanded short-grass collection areas around multiple greens. Nowhere is that more evident than on the 3rd, 7th, new 14th, and brand-new 15th holes, where misses around the greens are far more demanding than they were in 2017. This will either over-emphasize great around-the-green play because of difficulty or completely make it random because it’s too difficult. I choose to believe the former.

The routing itself has changed as well.

The opening stretch remains brutally difficult, beginning with one of the toughest first holes in the Open rota before easing into a series of demanding positional Par 4s. But several of the key holes players remember from 2017 have gone full Roddy Piper: Just when they think they got the answers, I change the questions!!!

The Par 3 4th has been lengthened and reshaped, allowing players to use the ground game much more effectively coming in from the right side.

The blind tee shot on the 5th has disappeared completely after the right side of the hole was rebuilt, turning it into one of the week’s biggest risk-reward opportunities. Slightly shortened, but with added bunkering down that right side approaching the green, the field can choose to fire from the tee in one. We’ll know pretty early in the week if the penalty for doing so is actually what the design team wanted. If it’s a relatively routine up-and-down, the whole field is going to give it a go with few repercussions.

The 7th now plays nearly 30 yards shorter, yet may actually be more difficult after the green was raised and surrounded by much steeper runoff areas.

The biggest changes come after the turn, though.

Jordan Spieth’s incredible recovery on 13 in 2017 (or “outlandish” when you’re a part of the collection of us who were holding Matt Kuchar to win tickets) isn’t happening again. The old 14th, the easiest hole that week, has been retired altogether. In its place sits a completely rebuilt Par 5 that’s roughly 60 yards longer, plays into the prevailing wind and features one of the few genuinely undulating stretches of fairway on the property after McKenzie intentionally preserved the natural links terrain instead of flattening it.

Players then immediately face a BRAND NEW, 241-yard Par 3 before finishing on perhaps the toughest closing hole on the rota. The 18th has been lengthened, the tee shifted left to eliminate the dogleg, and three additional fairway bunkers now have six waiting to punish any drive that strays from the ideal line.

Still, this isn’t a bomber’s golf course. Distance helps, like always, but it’s nowhere near the deciding factor. Accuracy, controlled wedges, and elite around-the-green skill should win the day at Birkdale. Creativity, trajectory control, and the ability to identify shifting winds are also going to be necessary, but there’s no database for that. It’s all about the feels.

I want elite long-iron players who consistently find fairways, control trajectory in the wind, and possess enough creativity around the greens to survive when they inevitably miss them. Because everyone is going to miss greens this week. Because who doesn’t?

For specialty props on Underdog, while the full menu of options hasn’t been released yet, I’ll be targeting lower on greens in regulation, fairways hit, and higher on the score props on the final three holes. These Fantasy Props generally populate on the APP about an hour after tee times are released on Tuesday. First, not to the scene may get some easy picking on the numbers before they get smashed and adjust.

2026 Open Championship Winner Trends

The last 14 Champion Golfers of the Year had either previously won a major championship or finished runner-up in a major. You’d have to go back to Louis Oosthuizen nuking the field at St. Andrews in 2010 to find the last time this didn’t happen. Crazily, Louis had missed the cut in seven of his first eight majors before that win.

Each of the past five Open champions played the previous week at the Scottish Open. Shane Lowry was the last winner not to tee it up the week before.

Additionally, each of the past four winners finished T12 or better at the Scottish Open. Collin Morikawa missed the cut in 2021 before winning in his first Open Championship start at Royal St. George’s.

Not surprisingly, Oosthuizen and Morikawa (during the COVID-era Open) are the only outlier winners of the past 20 years. They are the only champions who didn’t have a previous Top 20 finish in an Open Championship before their victory. You can even shrink that sample further, as Cameron Smith is the only other winner who hadn’t previously recorded a Top 10. He had, however, already posted a Top 20.

12 of the past 13 winners had posted a Top 25 finish in a Major already during the year. It was more difficult in some of those years, as the PGA Championship followed The Open on the schedule.

10 of the past 12 winners had already won that year. Of the two who hadn’t, Zach Johnson and Brian Harman each had Top 3 finishes to their credit.

2026 Open Championship Key Stats

• SG: Approach
• Distance from Edge of Fairway
• Scrambling from Short Grass
• Open Championship History

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

2026 Open Championship Quick Picks Pool

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PLAY IN PME OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 5×5 PICKS POOL

2026 Open Championship Course

• Course: Royal Birkdale
• Yards: 7,223 (67 added since 2017)
• Par: 70
• Greens: Fescue
• Green Size: 5,200 sq. Feet
• Bunkers: 123
• Holes with Water Hazards: 1

• Par 3’s (4): Two under 185 yards and two over 220
• Par 4’s (12): Three under 400 yards and three over 500
• Par 5’s (2): Average Distance – 584 yards. Both in final five holes.

2026 Open Championship: PAST WINNERS

• 2025: Scottie Scheffler -17 at Royal Portrush
• 2024: Xander Schauffele -9 at Royal Troon
• 2023: Brian Harman -13 at Royal Liverpool
• 2022: Cam Smith -20 at St. Andrews
• 2021: Collin Morikawa -15 at Royal St. George’s
• 2017: Jordan Spieth -12 (HERE)
• 2008 Padraig Harrington +3 (HERE)
• 1998: Mark O’Meara E (HERE)

PAST WINNER DETAIL

2025: Scottie Scheffler (+600, betting favorite, one of three golfers under +2000 for the week) beat Harris English by 4

• T-7 at the 2024 Open Championship, T-23 in 2023
• T-8 at the Genesis in his lead-in event
• Had gained over a stroke BS in each of his 8 events prior

2024: Xander Schauffele (+1200, 3rd on the odds board) beat Justin Rose and Billy Horschel by 2

• T-17 at the 2023 Open Championship, T-15 in 2022
• T-15 at the Genesis in his lead-in event
• Gained over a stroke on APP in 4 of 6 lead-in events (including a win at the PGA Championship)

2023: Brian Harman (+12500) beat Jon Rahm, Sepp Straka, Tom Kim, and Jason Day by 6

• T-6 at the 2022 Open Championship, T-19 in 2021
• T-12 at the Genesis in his lead-in event
• Had gained P in each of his 6 events prior

2022: Cam Smith (+2000, 5th on the betting board) beat Cam Young by 1

• T-33 at the 2021 Open Championship, T-20 in 2019
• T-10 at the Genesis in his lead-in event
• After losing OTT in three straight events, he gained 0.42 at Genesis and parlayed that to +0.48 at the Open Championship

2017: Jordan Spieth (+1200, tied with Dustin Johnson for the betting favorite) beat Matt Kuchar by 3

• T-30 at the 2016 Open Championship, T-4 in 2015
• Won the Travelers in his lead-in event
• Was in good form, ARG having gained in each of his 5 previous events

FIRST ROUND LEADERS
*AM/PM splits are based on local time

2025

67 – Harris English (PM), Matt Fitzpatrick (AM), Haotong Li (AM), Christian Bezuidenhout (PM), Jacob Skov Olesen (AM)

2024

65 – Daniel Brown (PM, second last group to tee)

2023

66 – Tommy Fleetwood (AM), Emiliano Grillo (PM), Christo Lamprecht (AM)

2017

65 – Jordan Spieth (AM), Matt Kuchar (PM), Brooks Koepka (AM)

2026 Open Championship Weather

Still early, but the weather at Birkdale for The Open appears to be relatively benign. Some rain, a little wind; primo scoring conditions.

WIND TOWER: Southport

2026 Open Championship Picks

Matt Fitzpatrick — Despite the three wins and constant contention, the Majors have all gone sideways for him. Things looked promising last month when he entered Saturday playing alongside Wyndham Clark in the final group. After his first three holes, I don’t think he was shown on TV for the rest of the week. That said, I’ll go to the well one more time. He’s a Major winner, has posted multiple excellent results at The Open in the past, and is the best combination of accuracy, long irons, and chipping (No. 1 in scrambling from short grass in the field). Even in the midst of the best year of his career, it’ll feel like a lost season if he doesn’t make a single Major run. Just pray it’s one of those weeks where he can make a few 5-footers, not one of the other ones.

Scrambling short from short grass/run off areas over the last 12 Months

Stats & Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

J.J. Spaun — The short game and putting come and go, but the elite ball striking persists. Birkdale demands accuracy, wedge control, and the ability to navigate the wind, three things Spaun has demonstrated in his three career wins. While no one is making Oakmont/Birkdale comparisons, a scan of the leaderboard from the past two trips to that U.S. Open venue reveals an exceptionally linksy looking leaderboard. Spaun’s ability to steer clear of big trouble has been his biggest attribute over the past few years, resulting in spike performances at courses with difficult-to-hit fairways.