Carnoustie Will Host the 2029 Open: What the Scoring Says
Andy Molitor
35 minutes ago
Carnoustie will host the 2029 Open Championship, the R&A announced on Monday, November 9, 2026. Don’t let the 8-under total Francesco Molinari posted there in 2018 fool you. DP World Tour scoring data going back to 2016 says Carnoustie is still the hardest course in the Alfred Dunhill Links rotation, and it has been the hardest in all 10 editions.
When is the 2029 Open at Carnoustie?
The 157th Open will be played at Carnoustie in Angus, Scotland, in July 2029. TheOpen.com lists the championship week as July 15 to 22, 2029, and Golf Channel reported on November 9 that the tournament itself runs July 19 to 22. It will be the ninth Open at Carnoustie and the first since 2018.
That is an 11-year gap. “Carnoustie is a world-class championship venue where some of golf’s greatest players have lifted the claret jug,” R&A chief executive Mark Darbon said in the announcement, per Golf Channel.
What nobody has said yet is what the course will look like. Reports on the announcement mention planned improvements to facilities and the spectator experience, with no detail on the golf course. Carnoustie played as a par 71 at 7,402 yards for the 2018 Open, and there is no published setup for 2029.
Who has won the Open at Carnoustie?
Eight players have won the Open at Carnoustie, from Tommy Armour in 1931 to Francesco Molinari in 2018. If you want the wider picture, here’s the full history of Open winners and records.
Winning totals and playoffs at the eight Opens played at Carnoustie, checked on November 9, 2026, against AP’s Carnoustie history, Wikipedia’s championship records, and DP World Tour results for 2018.
| Year | Champion | Total | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1931 | Tommy Armour | 296 | No |
| 1937 | Henry Cotton | 290 | No |
| 1953 | Ben Hogan | 282 | No |
| 1968 | Gary Player | 289 | No |
| 1975 | Tom Watson | 279 | Yes |
| 1999 | Paul Lawrie | 290 | Yes |
| 2007 | Padraig Harrington | 277 | Yes |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari | 276 | No |
Three of the last four Opens at Carnoustie went to a playoff. Watson beat Jack Newton in 1975, Lawrie beat Jean van de Velde and Justin Leonard in 1999, and Harrington beat Sergio Garcia in 2007. Molinari’s 276 in 2018 is the lowest winning total of the eight, and it came by two shots over Kevin Kisner, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, and Xander Schauffele.
How hard is Carnoustie compared with St Andrews and Kingsbarns?
Carnoustie plays about 1.7 shots harder than the Old Course at St Andrews and about 1.9 shots harder than Kingsbarns. That comes from every complete 18-hole round in the first three days of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship from 2016 to 2026, an event that sends the same field around all three courses.
Average score to par by course at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, rounds 1 to 3, across the 10 editions from 2016 to 2026, from DP World Tour scoring data as of November 9, 2026.
| Course | Rounds | Average to par | Rounds under par |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carnoustie | 1,662 | +0.38 | 43.8 percent |
| Old Course | 1,658 | -1.30 | 61.9 percent |
| Kingsbarns | 1,657 | -1.51 | 65.7 percent |
Carnoustie was the hardest of the three in every one of those 10 editions. Even in 2024, when the whole rotation played soft, it averaged 0.93 under par while the Old Course sat at 2.52 under and Kingsbarns at 3.42 under.
One caution. The Dunhill is played in late September or early October, and Carnoustie is set up as a par 72 for it, so this tells you how the course plays relative to its neighbors. It isn’t a copy of Open week.
Why the wind matters more than the winning score at Carnoustie
Carnoustie can flip by several shots from one day to the next. At the 2025 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, the group that played Carnoustie in the first round averaged 1.89 under par, and the group there in the second round averaged 2.71 over. In the second round of the 2022 event, the Carnoustie group averaged 5.00 over par.
The 2018 Open did the same thing on the weekend. The 79 players who made the cut averaged 70.23 on Saturday and 73.22 on Sunday at the 2018 Open, a swing of about three shots with the same players on the same course. So 8 under won, and Saturday did most of the giving.
The closing stretch is where that 2018 Open got ugly. The 16th, a 248-yard par-3, gave up 20 birdies in 469 attempts and handed out 168 bogeys or worse. Holes 16, 17, and 18 played a combined 0.89 shots over par per player per round, and the 513-yard par-5 14th was the only hole that played well under par, at 0.66 shots below.
Who plays Carnoustie best?
Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton stand well clear of everyone else. Fleetwood has beaten the Carnoustie field average by 3.22 shots per round over 14 rounds since 2016, including the 63 at the 2017 Dunhill that is the lowest round in the data. Hatton is right behind him at 3.19 over 13 rounds.
Best scoring against the Carnoustie field that day, 2016 to 2026, at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the 2018 Open, among the 84 players with at least seven complete rounds, from DP World Tour scoring data as of November 9, 2026.
| Player | Rounds | Shots better than field per round |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | 14 | 3.22 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 13 | 3.19 |
| Alex Noren | 10 | 2.32 |
| Jorge Campillo | 10 | 2.20 |
| Tony Finau | 7 | 2.17 |
| Rory McIlroy | 8 | 2.15 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 7 | 2.11 |
What the 2029 Open at Carnoustie means for betting
There’s no price in this piece, and there shouldn’t be. The first round of the 2029 Open is 32 months away, and a scoring history built over a decade tells you very little about who will be in form that July.
The useful part is the type of test. Carnoustie punishes a bad day in the wind, and the scoring says so year after year, so a player’s links record deserves more weight here than it would at a softer Open venue. If you want to put that into practice, start with how to weigh course fit and form in a betting model, then look at how the Rabbit Hole model builder works when you’re ready to set your own weights.
Fleetwood and Hatton are the two names to keep in the back of your head. Just remember it’s 14 and 13 rounds, spread over 11 years.
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2029 Open at Carnoustie FAQ
Can you buy tickets for the 2029 Open yet?
Not based on what’s posted so far. TheOpen.com has a 2029 Carnoustie page with a tickets and hospitality section, but as of November 9, 2026, it lists no prices or on-sale date. Fans can register interest through the site.
Where is the Open in 2027 and 2028?
The 155th Open goes to the Old Course at St Andrews in 2027, and the 156th goes to Royal Lytham and St Annes in 2028. Golf Channel reported on November 9, 2026, that the 2029 Carnoustie staging is the furthest-out venue the R&A has named.
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