U.S. Open Model Rankings: 25 Players Most Likely to Contend at Shinnecock

2026 U.S. Open Model Rankings – The third major of the 2026 season has arrived, and it’s going to be a special one. Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is hosting the U.S. Open for the first time since 2018, returning a course that the golf world has been waiting eight years to see again. Brooks Koepka won that edition at +1, and if conditions cooperate again this week, the kind of chaos that made 2018 unforgettable could be back on the menu. With no repeat winners across signature events, LIV Golf, or any major this season, the field has rarely felt more wide open heading into a U.S. Open, and a venue as demanding as Shinnecock only adds to that uncertainty.

Scottie Scheffler enters as the betting favorite as he chases the career Grand Slam, with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm rounding out the top of the board. But the model paints a field that’s deep with contenders well beyond the favorites, and the names below represent the 25 players our system likes most this week at Shinnecock Hills.

U.S. Open Model Rankings – Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole

Player Notes

1. Scottie Scheffler (96.52) — The model’s clear top play, and it isn’t close. Statistically and stylistically, there is no better fit for Shinnecock than Scheffler. He ranks first or near it across nearly every major category in our model, from total strokes gained to approach play. The only thing missing in 2026 has been a signature win, and Shinnecock might be exactly the stage he’s been building toward.

2. Rory McIlroy (93.59) — Second in the model and a name that needs no introduction at a major. He’s looking to win his first U.S. Open in 15 years. His all-around profile remains elite, and a venue that rewards complete ball-striking suits him well.

3. Russell Henley (88.91) — Henley picked up his sixth PGA Tour win at the Charles Schwab Challenge on May 31 and has finished top 14 in four of his last five U.S. Opens. He leads the tour in driving accuracy at 71.9%, and per Betsperts Golf, Henley ranks sixth in this field for total strokes gained at courses similar to Shinnecock over the last three years. The model loves him, and the recent results back it up.

4. Xander Schauffele (83.85) — Schauffele has been automatic in major championships, posting eight top 10s across his last 14 majors with a pair of wins in that stretch. His worst major finish in over two years was a T28. Consistency at this level in the toughest events in golf is its own form of dominance.

5. Tommy Fleetwood (83.33) — Fleetwood will be popular this week given his historic final-round 63 at Shinnecock in 2018, and the model agrees there’s substance behind the sentiment. He profiles well on the strokes gained metrics that matter most at this course.

6. Matt Fitzpatrick (81.48) — The only golfer on tour with three victories this season, Fitzpatrick was playing better than anyone in the field before a recent so-so stretch. He’s also been priced at even money to finish top 20 this week, reflecting the form he’s carried for months.

7. Patrick Reed (81.32) — Reed represents one of the better value plays in the field at his current price, with a T4 finish at the 2018 U.S. Open at this very course. Along with Augusta National, Shinnecock is one of two courses Reed has said he’d draw inspiration from if designing a major championship venue himself. Few in the field have a deeper connection to this property.

8. Ludvig Aberg (81.24) — One of the most talented ball-strikers in the world, Aberg’s profile fits almost any major venue, and Shinnecock is no exception. He ranks inside the top 10 in several of the model’s most heavily weighted categories.

9. Tyrrell Hatton (79.79) — Hatton’s strength off the tee and ability to control his ball in tough conditions play directly into what Shinnecock demands. The model has him solidly inside the top 10 for the week.

10. Collin Morikawa (79.28) — Among the best iron players on the planet, and approach play is a premium skill at Shinnecock’s small, well-defended greens. Morikawa’s overall profile checks enough boxes to land him comfortably in the model’s top 10.

11. Jon Rahm (78.75) — Rahm finished T2 at the PGA Championship in May, and the links-style demands of Shinnecock are considered a strong match for his ball-striking and short-game creativity. Any discount tied to his move to LIV doesn’t show up anywhere in his actual game.

12. Chris Gotterup (78.28) — Gotterup has emerged as one of the more interesting names in the sport this year, and his profile here reflects real strength in total strokes gained. A name worth watching beyond just the model score.

13. Maverick McNealy (77.74) — McNealy’s all-around game has quietly been trending in the right direction, and his ranking here reflects a player who fits this style of test better than his market price might suggest.

14. Patrick Cantlay (77.56) — Cantlay’s strength in approach play, where he ranks fourth in this field, gives him a real foothold at a course where finding the right portion of the green is half the battle.

15. Cameron Young (76.16) — Young was Captain America at last year’s Ryder Cup and gets to play in front of a home crowd again this week as a New York native. He has two wins and six top-10s in 2026, though he arrives off a T36-T46 stretch, which tempers expectations slightly even with the course fit in his favor.

16. Hideki Matsuyama (75.00) — Matsuyama’s iron play remains a constant strength, and that skill travels well to a venue where precision approach shots separate the leaderboard from the chasers.

17. Sam Burns (74.86) — Burns has back-to-back top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open and has shown recent spikes in both approach and around-the-green play, exactly the kind of form the model is built to catch.

18. Justin Rose (74.66) — Rose’s experience at majors and his track record on demanding setups give him a stable floor, even as the model places him just outside the top half of this list.

19. Si Woo Kim (74.64) — A strong driver of the golf ball who profiles as a sneaky source of value given how the model weighs total strokes gained this week.

20. Viktor Hovland (74.09) — Hovland’s ball-striking has flashed top-tier form at times this year, and when his swing changes click, he’s a threat at any major.

21. Jordan Spieth (73.36) — Spieth’s creativity around the greens remains an asset on a golf course that punishes anyone without an answer for difficult short-game positions.

22. J.J. Spaun (72.97) — Last year’s U.S. Open champion came in as a 150-1 long shot before that win and has added a Valero Texas Open title since, along with three more top-five finishes. He’s now priced at 50-1 to repeat. The model has him barely inside its top 25, but his recent major pedigree is undeniable.

23. Joaquin Niemann (72.56) — Niemann’s ball-striking has been consistently strong, and his approach play in particular ranks well inside this field, giving him a real foundation heading into the week.

24. Shane Lowry (71.79) — Lowry’s approach game ranks second in this entire field, a number that stands out even with a more modest overall model score. If that strength shows up on Thursday, he’s a name that could climb quickly.

25. Alex Noren (71.75) — Noren rounds out the top 25 with a profile that leans heavily on putting and short-game metrics, areas that can matter just as much as ball-striking when Shinnecock’s greens start running fast.