WMPO One and Done Picks

After a big win for Rory (who I avoided like a genius), it’s time to dig into a normal cut event with what’s supposedly a non-signature event field. Still a bunch of big names who like to come here, and for the most part, we’ve seen a handful of guys who tend to play well here. No Xander this week, but to be fair, I don’t think burning him on a pot this small would be wise anyway.

Making the Weekend

Looking at the past two years of golf (minimum 25 starts) and sorting by Made Cut % leaves us with a couple of funny ones: Scottie being at 100%, and Scam Young being 3rd with a glaring red cell on his top 5% and a 0.0 in his win % as well. There are some names in here that I likely wouldn’t be burning on a smaller purse weekend, like Hideki, but this is always a nice starting spot. You can’t cash if you don’t play on Sunday.

Driving the Ball

Shorter hitters can and have gotten it done here, but distance is still an advantage here, so long as your aren’t too wild off the tee. There are still plenty of ways to get into trouble here if you are too wayward. One I like to look at here is Total Driving, a stat that combines distance off the tee with accuracy, giving a blended rating. This list is the past two years of golf, but also filtered in the Rabbit Hole to show rounds on Driver Heavy courses.

In a theme we’ll see on most things that aren’t putting, Scottie is again at the top here, but there are a few down-the-board names that have snuck in, like Pavon, Fishburn, and Hoey. A name that’s also starting to pop a bit is Corey Conners. Not the longest off the tee but very consistent.

Approach

It’s a ball strikers course, and this is where it gets a bit tricky. The greens are big and easy to hit for the most part, so it may be a good week to look deeper into the approach stats with proximity stats. This chart is sorted by just overall approach strokes gained over the past two years, again filtering to show only Driver Heavy rounds.

Course History

This is not everyone’s cup of tea, but still it’s fun to look at. There are some small samples in here, and let’s not get too excited about Jordan Spieth at the moment, but it is another jumping-off point for some of these guys who could use some digging in on. Andrew Novak is a good example. He missed two cuts to start the year, then followed it up with a 3 and T13, heading into his second WMPO having top-tenned here last year. He’s viable, but you’re putting a bunch of trust into a grinder.

One and Done Picks

It’s not a big purse, so the really big names are worth saving. Scottie, JT, Hideki, & Burns are likely going to fall into one of the signature events or majors for me, so I’m crossing them off the list. You can make a case for Sungjae, Conners, and Tom Kim to be in that range, I have them in that very next tier.

Safe

Corey Conners
Sahith Theegala
Si Woo Kim

Getting Weird in a Big Pool

Andrew Novak
Keith Mitchell
Luke Clanton (this seemed like a good idea until someone reminded me how much money amateur golfers get to take home)

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