Mayo’s 2026 US Open Golf Bets: Data, Player Rankings by Course Conditions

WATCH: US Open Golf Bets, One & Done, Weather, Picks | Inside the Ropes from Shinnecock Hills

The entire cheat sheet will be sent out Wednesday on here, so SUB (hell, share it around if you’re feeling generous!) with the final bets, DK ownership, updated weather, you know, the usual.

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As a bonus this week, I’ll be doing a LIVE video on MMN with Cam Stewart on Wednesday evening. We’ll run through our bets, any last-second info, then open up the floor to the audience. If you’ve ever wanted to ask Cam a Q, this is the time.

In case you missed it: me, Tambo, and Blickle broke down the entire Milly Maker slate on DraftKings

WATCH: US Open Golf 2026 DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Ownership, Strategy | Players Picks in Tough Conditions

2026 U.S Open Data: Rankings By The Conditions

You’ve heard me talk about the Rabbit Hole at length, but I figured I’d showcase part of its power by breaking down the conditions the field is expected to encounter at the 2026 U.S Open. For only $1 this week (with code “USOPEN”), you can get full access to the site. Beyond the customizable stat database, you’ll get the DFS projections, optimizer, tournament simulation, H2H tool, Discord, and MORE!!!!! So, do that.

Here’s the course info for Shinnecock Hills…

So let’s dig into the specific demands of the course, starting with approach play. Brooks led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach during his 2018 win here, while nine of the top 16 players in SG: Approach finished inside the top 20. It was difficult to gain strokes on approach and hit greens that year, so here are the leaders in SG: Approach from the past three years in similar conditions (minimum 12 rounds)

There was also a massive penalty for missing fairways that year too. It should, in theory, be easier to hit this time around with the fairways being restored to their original, wider size.

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These conditions are most likely to be seen at Major championships, so why not look at the best performers from the past three years in Majors only.

But those aren’t the only tournaments with strong fields. Here are the top players in strong field events over that same period.

Don’t forget, this is a completely exposed course with expected winds that may blow a few players over. Especially on Thursday. The best players in 18+ mph wind are…

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Because of the high rate of missed GIR, short game will come into play. It was insanely difficult to gain strokes around the green in 2018, which should play out again this week.

Because of the difficulty, putts are going to have to be made. Shinnecock Hills was devastating last time for putting. Not only was it extremely hard to gain strokes putting on the field, but three-putt avoidance was also no joke. Let’s put those together.

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Most of these numbers will be reflected in scoring conditions, but it’s easier to sort by just very difficult conditions to see who leads the field.

Now, you can put them all together and give a boost to the difficult approach and very difficult conditions (or do it any way you want you)

Run the model, and you get these rankings for the 2026 US OPEN

BUILD YOUR OWN RANKINGS & GET ACCESS TO ALL TOOLS AT RABBIT HOLE FOR $1 THIS WEEK WITH CODE “USOPEN”!!!!!!