Roughly four months left!  Time to start mapping out the mess that your January plans have become!

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Recapping the Masters

Gotta hand it to Ron’s trends article, his top three golfers all finished in the top five.  My wildcard picks for the chasers didn’t fare well, but that’s what you get when you’re chasing.  Congrats if you grabbed Rory.

Last week’s suggestions:

If you think they are winning:

Scottie Scheffler 4th
Rory McIlroy 🏆

If you’re going LIV:

Jon Rahm T14
Bryson DeChambeau T5

Avoiding LIV and the Favorites (chasing):

Russell Henley CUT
Sepp Straka  CUT

On to Harbourtown! We’ve got a signature pot, $20 million with $3.6 million to the winner here.  No cut at this event, so unless your guy gets the flu, you’re scoring some points.

We’ll be skipping the cutmakers section this week, although it may be an ok idea to look into course history here, as some guys just play better on Dye courses and have found repeatable success here at the RBC.  We’ll instead look at some key stats that differentiate this course from the average tour stop.

Less than Driver OTT

From Ron’s preview article:

“When players at the RBC Heritage reach into their bag for their club to tee off this week, very rarely will they grab a driver. Harbour Town has the fewest rate of drives over 280 yards at only 52.5%. It also has the fourth-lowest average driving distance on Tour at only 278.5 yards per drive. The past 15 winners have an average ranking of 50th in driving distance during the week they won. There is almost no chance for bombers to cheat the course by cutting corners on dog legs or hitting over the trees.”

So, a look at the last 12 months of golf sorted for only rounds with a majority of “less than driver”.  Ranked by SG: OTT, Scottie comes in first (as he should in almost anything we model this and most weeks), but the surprising one is Sam Stevens. Probably not a viable pick here at a signature event, but he does have a runner-up finish on tour this year (Farmers).

GIR on Small Greens

Another key feature this week is the miniscule greens here, and with so much riding on the approach play, I decided to look at greens in regulation % when filtering for small greens and taking out any rounds played in “easy GIR” conditions.  Some great approach players on the list obviously, including Mr. Course History: Patrick Cantlay.

 

Tough Par 3s

Finally, we’re looking at some very tough par 3s this week with all of them measuring 190+.  I filtered the last year’s data for tough scoring on Par 3s, sorted by Par 3 average.  It took a bit of a niche one to knock Scottie off the top line here

RBC Heritage One and Done Suggestions

It’s a signature event, and one of the best players in the world isn’t here (hat tip to the YouTube chat for pointing out the significance of that), you have a big purse and need to nail down some big money as the season is now around the halfway point.  Every big pot from here on out is a nice spot to use Scheffler if you have him, so I won’t leave him off the list when we find ourselves with 3.6 milly to the winner and a course he’s won on before.

Scottie Scheffler
Patrick Cantlay
Collin Morikawa
Corey Conners

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