This week is QUITE a bit different than most and as you’ve seen in 100 trends articles, there is likely only a handful of golfers who can actually win this thing.

It’s a big purse, $20 million with $3.6 million to the winner and would be a massive win to get in the middle part of the season.  It seems like your list of potential names is fairly small.  Ownership should be less of a concern and there are a half dozen names that will split up the “chalky picks”.  Being right is going to do you a ton more good with a big purse than being unique.

On to the first major after a note from our sponsors:

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Recapping Texas

Not the strongest follow up to Min Woo Lee, but hopefully you took Mitchell or ignored me altogether.  Meh week for the suggestions to be sure.

Keegan Bradley T47
Rico Hoey MC
Keith Mitchell T12
Daniel Berger T30

My Masters Model

I put together a model for this week, pretty heavy on the ball-striking and tee-to-green play.  It includes some course history and gives the bombers a little bump up as well.  It’s most of the usual suspect, just reinforcing the fact that I likely won’t stray too far from the top of the board here.  Members can see the whole thing in the Expert section of the Rabbit Hole.

LIV?

I’m not going to look at cutmakers or most of the other stats I usually do this week, as you should be taking a big boy name for the most part.  The only real question seems to be “LIV or nah?”

You’ll only have four shots to use LIV golfers, and with names like Rahm, DeChambeau, Koepka, Smith, and Niemann, it’s hard to make a case that you should use any of them just to be contrarian.  I firmly think that it’s probably best to steer down the middle here and look to use at least two from the rebel league at one point during the season, but just where is pretty tough.  This decision will come down to your personal feelings about how well these top LIV golfers will compete here and at the other three majors.

The Trends

I slighted the trends a little off the top, but they can be predictive here to some degree.  Ron did great job of going through 18 unique ones that predict success here, and honestly it’s lining up with my modeling enough that I’m pretty happy with my betting card this week.  He explains each of the trends and then totals up how many each golfer qualifies for to rank them heading into the week. Here is the top of the list:

Masters One and Done Suggestions

Rory is a perfect fit for this place, has a couple of wins this year and seems to be ready to finally get this monkey off his back.  Scottie has shown that he can navigate Augusta with the the best and despite the missed time, looks like he’s rounding back into form.  Taking either of them is very much on the table if you feel very strongly about their chances here.

If you think they are winning:

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy

If you’re going LIV:

Jon Rahm
Bryson DeChambeau

Avoiding LIV and the Favorites (chasing):

Russell Henley
Sepp Straka

 

Want to do some modeling of your own on the rabbit hole?  Take advantage of our Masters Week Sale!

 

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