Noonan’s 2026 U.S. Open Betting Picks

Noonan’s 2026 U.S. Open Betting Picks – My favorite part of any major championship week is that the course becomes the star. And while PGA Championship venues are capable of meeting the moment, U.S. Open venues rarely miss. You could argue that this 3-year run of Pinehurst No. 2, Oakmont CC, and Shinnecock Hills GC is just about as good as it gets in the professional game. Truly elite and historic venues, capable of testing the best of the best with history on the line.

Few clubs in American golf hold as much historical significance as Shinnecock Hills. It is recognized as the oldest incorporated golf club in the United States and was one of the five founding member clubs of the United States Golf Association (USGA). Just five years after its 1891 opening, Shinnecock hosted both the U.S. Amateur and the U.S. Open in 1896, establishing itself as one of the first true championship venues in American golf.

The 2026 U.S. Open will mark the club’s tenth USGA championship and its sixth U.S. Open, with another on deck in 2036. And the most recent ones have been fascinating.

In 2004, the final round was a golfer’s nightmare. Difficult pin placements and swirling winds led the USGA to water multiple holes as each group passed through. Even with the watering, the course played 8.73 strokes over par on average. For context, anything 1.5 or higher is considered “Very Difficult” in our charting and filtering.

There was a deliberate attempt to avoid a repeat of that day in 2018, but there’s only so much they can do from a course setup standpoint. On Saturday, the course played 5.33 shots over par on average after the afternoon winds howled and repelled balls from their intended targets. The USGA responded with benign pin placements for Sunday’s final round, which resulted in the easiest scoring day in either 2004 or 2018 at +2.18 strokes, which is still very difficult in every possible way.

The course isn’t brilliant because it’s hard or because it was one of the country’s original championship tests. The course is brilliant because of the routing and style of golf that the terrain and conditions force on the field. Even with what will likely be some of the widest fairway corridors that have ever been featured at a U.S. Open venue, club selection off the tee will be in question for every player at every tee box. The wind, the desired second-shot angle, and pin placement on the green will all need to be factored into that decision every single time. Every shot has consequences.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Shinnecock Hills course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. The U.S. Open is certainly one of those weeks. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

*U.S. Open Betting Picks- Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Outrights: U.S. Open Betting Picks

Cameron Young (20/1)

I’ve been riding the Cameron Young train since his win at TPC Sawgrass, and I’m not getting off now. I’m not going to pretend that Young has a plethora of Shinnecock Hills experience because he grew up an hour north in Westchester County, but he is very much a product of the area and familiar with the northeast agronomy that the players will experience this week.

Young’s ascension into this place on oddsboards and leaderboards has been quite a ride.

He ranks third in this week’s field in SG: 2026, with a remarkably balanced game. He’s gaining 1.24 strokes per round more than he did in 2025, with no weaknesses in his game right now. He’s had a few rocky putting performances this spring, but his ability to get hot with the putter is undeniable. He’s 12th in SG: Putting in this field over the past 12 months, and he’s gained 2+ more strokes putting in 23.5% of his rounds, which is the highest rate in the field (min. 50 rounds). That’s going to show up this week because Shinnecock is going to leave you with a lot of 8-12 footers for par.

Collin Morikawa (48/1)

Collin Morikawa was moving around TPC Toronto last week with a bounce in his step, looking a lot like that golfer who headed into TPC Sawgrass as one of the favorites after his electric start to the 2026 season. While his golf game didn’t show many signs of lingering back issues during his rounds at Augusta or Harbour Town, it was clear that when you watched him move or listened to him speak, he was still not right. I believe he’s back to full strength, and if that’s the case, he should be nowhere near 50/1, or even 40/1 for that matter.

I’m targeting golfers who are elite at controlling their golf ball, because precision is the most important skill this week. You get extra credit if you’ve had success at Augusta National or any of the recent Open Championship venues, because I believe those are the best comp courses to Shinnecock for all the reasons stated above. Morikawa’s worst Masters finish in the past six years is a T18 back in 2021, the year he won the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s GC.

He remains one of the most dominant approach players in the world; he’s going to keep his ball in play off the tee, and his short game has been excellent all season long. I like his chances this week, and I really like this price.

Russell Henley (50/1)

Russell Henley posted a 1-under 69 in the first round of the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, a number that was good enough to hold a share of the FRL. He’s a much better golfer now than he was back then, having learned from a lot of near-misses along the way.

Henley now shows up at the toughest venues against the best fields and has to be accounted for. He has back-to-back T10 finishes at The Open, and has finished among the top-5 in two of his past four starts at Augusta National. Henley was also in the mix at the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, mixed in on a leaderboard that appeared to be featuring nothing but names who sit in the 175+ MPH ball speed range, but showing like that, along with a win at the long and demanding Bay Hill, prove that Henley should never be discounted just because a course plays long.

Like Morikawa, Henley is going to keep the ball in position off the tee. His accuracy is a true weapon at a spot like this, where angles matter just as much as raw ‘fairways hit’ data. Henley finished third in my Rabbit Hole model this week, finishing closer to Scottie and Rory than he did to the Xander’s and Tommy’s lurking behind him. Having some experience here certainly helps, and you have to believe Henley is feeling good about his game after his dominant finishing stretch at Colonial a few weeks ago. I think a Henley Top 20 bet is one of the safest you can make this week, and he’s a smash at 50/1 in the outright market.

Patrick Reed (55/1)

Shinnecock Hills screams Patrick Reed in a lot of ways, so it’s no surprise that Reed was heavily involved in deciding the outcome of the 2018 U.S. Open. Reed finished fourth that week, gaining throughout the bag. He’s been a challenging handicap in 2026, simply because he hasn’t played many events, but he’s playing about as well as he ever has. He’s only played in eight events in 2026, but he’s gained an average of 1.82 strokes per round, which is slightly behind the career-best mark he set in 2020 (+1.85).

Reed can roll out of bed and gain on and around the greens, and this year has been no different. We know that’s on the menu this week, so that baseline skill, which shows up every time he’s in Augusta as well, will be vital to his success. The 2025 season showed noticeable improvements on approach for Reed, and those strides have stuck and have gotten even better in 2026. Only Aaron Rai gained more strokes on approach at the PGA Championship than Patrick Reed (+1.5 per round on average), who finished in a tie for 10th.

I was really surprised to see Reed available in this 50+ price range considering his form, fit, and past Shinnecock Hills success, but I suppose there’s a bit of ‘out of sight out of mind’ at play here and I’m happy to take advantage of that.

Hideki Matsuyama (66/1)

If you don’t have a previous top 5 at Augusta National, you’re not making my card this week.

I didn’t set out to do that intentionally, but I’ve noticed that all six of my outright selections for the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills have experienced multiple years of strong Augusta National results, including the 2021 champion. We’ve seen Hideki Matsuyama struggle to keep the ball in play off the tee at times this season, but he’ll benefit from the wider fairways here along with the ability to club down often.

Matsuyama’s approach play remains exceptionally strong, and his game is perfectly suited for a course that gets harder the closer you get to the hole. That’s exactly how I would describe Matsuyama’s game to someone who had never seen him play. He’s on the Mount Rushmore of “Team Hands/Team Around The Green” over the past decade, and he’s made year-over-year strides with the putter, which held him back from more wins multiple times since his PGA Tour debut. He’s far less consistent week in and week out than the other elite golfers, but Matsuyama still possesses a top-tier ceiling that few in this week’s field can match.

Cameron Smith (160/1)

There is no Mount Rushmore for short game if Cameron Smith isn’t on it. The 2022 Open Champion also boasts five T10 or better finishes at Augusta National, even showing up and playing well there in 2024 despite showing very little competitive form in his lead-in starts on LIV. Perhaps the shifting atmosphere around LIV’s future has put a snake in Cameron Smith‘s proverbial boot, but he made a swing coach change earlier this spring, and he’s finished T16 or better in his past three starts, including a T7 at Aronimink.

Smith will struggle to gain strokes on approach, but if his improved iron play is sticky and he continues to dazzle on and around the greens, he’s custom-built for this venue. I worry about the foul balls off the tee with Cameron Smith because his misses can be dramatic, but I expect him to scramble with the best of them and stay in contention. That’s all we can ask of a 160/1 long shot.