Noonan’s 2026 the Memorial Outright Betting Picks

Noonan’s 2026 Memorial Outright Betting Picks – The Tour’s best head to Muirfield Village, Jack’s place, for this week’s 2026 Memorial. The Jack Nicklaus design is a stern test of golf, and that, combined with Jack’s presence during the week, has always drawn an elite-level field to Dublin, Ohio, every year. Once again, this year’s event is a small-field signature event, with a 36-hole cut down to the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead, despite being a 72-golfer field.

The 2020 redesign stretched the par-72 track to 7,569 from the tips, making it one of the longest on Tour. The fairways are generous, although tighter following the redesign; however, the rough is tall and thick if you miss the fairways. Muirfield Village also has some of the smallest greens on Tour, contoured bentgrass greens, with a premium put on elite approach play from 175 yards out.

Jack’s objective is to challenge the winner to use every club in their bag. He has achieved this by designing a test in which every aspect of a golfer’s game is more difficult than what players typically encounter at a standard PGA Tour stop. Over the past five years, the course has played 1.29 strokes over par on average (73.29), with the cut line hovering around 5 or 6 over par.

For more course and renovation details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Muirfield Village course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• Rolling Form (L6M, L24 Rounds)
• SG: Total (Scoring Conditions; Average, Difficult, Very Difficult)
• Distance From the Edge of the Fairway (DFEF)
• SG: T2G (Difficult to gain OTT and on APP)
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Par 5’s

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

I’m taking a slightly different approach to things this week because, well, Scottie Scheffler. A Scheffler bet is complicated because I can’t stake him to the same “to win” amount while staying within my weekly budget. But I’m willing to break that self-imposed rule and bet on him to win at times, even though the return is less than a normal outright. This is one of those weeks.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s the Memorial Outright Betting Picks

Scottie Scheffler

Not all “slumps” are created equally. Scottie Scheffler is graded on a curve, unique to himself, and he’s inflicted those expectations upon himself by being so damn good at the game. Scheffler hasn’t won an event since January’s American Express, a 10-start run that includes six T4 or better finishes.

As you all know from betting on outright winners each week, winning golf tournaments is hard, but let’s not conflate a lack of wins with poor play. While Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Rory McIlroy have won big events (and multiple events), Scheffler has been left on the lower rungs of the podium for most of 2026. Still, he’s been the best golfer on the planet by a significant margin.

Looking at the entire 72-man field over their last 20 rounds played, Scheffler has gained 56.51 strokes (+2.83 per round). Cameron Young, who’s second, has gained 40.78. On average, that’s 0.79 fewer strokes gained per round. And Young is the only other golfer who’s averaged 2+ per round (2.04) over that time frame. We’re also at a venue where he’s won back-to-back starts, and finished no worse than T3 in the past four times teeing it up at Muirfield Village. His Muirfield Village stats lap the field. Scottie has gained 3.8 strokes per round tee-to-green, more than double that of the next closest golfer.

All streaks come to an end eventually, and this week, Scottie’s winless streak ends.

Cameron Young (“Without Scheffler” market)

If Scottie’s streak doesn’t come to an end, I’m too pot-committed to 2026 being Cameron Young‘s year to back out now. I wouldn’t have bet this if I wasn’t able to land a better “Without” price than what some books were offering on Young in the full field market, but FanDuel’s 13/1 on Young here was too good to pass up. I made the case for Young at times in the Scheffler notes above, and Young’s consistency has been extremely impressive.

Admittedly, Young’s Muirfield Village history isn’t great, but I’ll continue to contend that a lot of Young’s previous results (2023-2024) are mostly meaningless to me because he’s changed so many elements of his game. He’s really struggled on the greens here, but over the past 12 months, Young has gained an average of 0.53 strokes per round putting on fast greens, which is one of the best marks in the field, and light-years ahead of his peers at the top of the oddsboard.