Noonan’s 2026 RBC Canadian Open Outright Betting Picks

Canadian Open Outright Betting Picks – We’re coming off an electric weekend of golf, and the men’s U.S. Open is right around the corner. The final event to qualify for Shinnecock Hills is this week’s RBC Canadian Open, which returns for Year 2 at TPC Toronto’s Osprey Valley North course.

This Par-70 track favored the longer hitters last year, and I’ll be looking to leverage that same archetype this year as well. I do think shorter hitters can compete here, but in terms of constructing an outright betting card, I’m leaning on plus distance off the tee.

Ryan Fox won in a playoff last year at 18-under par, surviving runs by Sam Burns and Cameron Young on Sunday. The course played to an average of 1.25 strokes under par, with a sizeable birdie rate (22.7%) despite the lack of Par 5s. This puts a premium on Par 4 scoring and birdie rates, which is something I’m accounting for heavily in my model this week.

We also saw a unique distribution of approach shot distances compared to the average PGA Tour venue. On average, approach shots from 150-200 yards make up 39% of the second shots in a given week, but last year at TPC Toronto, just 24.9% of the approach shots came from that range. We still see a good amount of long approach shots from 200+, but we also saw a premium on wedge play, with shots from 50-150 up roughly 10% compared to an average PGA Tour event.

For more course and renovation details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the TPC Toronto course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• Rolling Form (L6M, L24 Rounds)
• Driving Distance/Carry Distance
• SG: Par 4 (Long, Very Long, and Average Courses)
• SG: Total (Easy to gain OTT, Easy to gain on APP)
• SG: Total (Long Courses and Easy Scoring Conditions)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s RBC Canadian Open Outright Betting Picks

Kristoffer Reitan

After a slow start to the 2026 season, Kristoffer Reitan has clearly found his footing on the PGA Tour. He’s been gaining strokes throughout the bag for the better part of two months now, playing his best golf on long courses against the best fields.

Reitan’s T6 at last week’s Memorial was another example of his staying power. He’s got off to a slow start on Thursday, but he gained at least 2.6 strokes ball-striking in each of the final three rounds. He’s carrying top-tier form into this week’s event, and he’s fit for what TPC Toronto demands.

Nicolai Hojgaard

Nicolai topped my Rabbit Hole model this week. He mashes it off the tee, but he’s taken real strides as a complete golfer this season. He’s finished T5 or better in three of his 13 starts this season after just three T5 finishes in 47 PGA Tour starts in 2023 to 2025.

Over the past 12 months and in 2026 alone, Nicolai has been the best golfer in this week’s field on long courses with easy scoring conditions. His best finishes this season include Quail Hollow, Memorial Park, and TPC Scottsdale, where the recipe is driver-heavy off the tee.

Michael Thorbjornsen

After blindly tailing my guy for a while, I’ve backed off a bit lately on Michael Thorbjornsen, but I’m back this week. He’s often far too inconsistent and expensive, which is a bad combination in the land of outright betting. I still have concerns about his ability to string together four straight rounds, but it’s still so easy to get mesmerized at times by his ceiling outcomes.

Over the past 12 months, Thorbjornsen has gained 4+ strokes in a round 19.1% of the time, which is second only to Justin Rose (20.5%, min. 16 rounds played). Overall, he’s gained strokes in just 57.4% of his rounds, which ranks 35th in this field. That’s fine, but nothing that warrants being chased weekly. Here at TPC Toronto, though, his ball-striking should shine, and if the putter gets hot, he’ll be very live to close the deal for the first time.

Alex Fitzpatrick

Form is fickle, but when a course setup fits a golfer who’s riding high, we’re getting too cute if we’re trying to time the exit correctly. Instead, let’s just ride the wave. Alex Fitzpatrick is on quite the heater right now, with last week’s T6 at Memorial making it six T10 or better finishes in his past seven starts worldwide.

Matt’s little brother has made 12 starts in 2026, finishing among the top 25 in 9 of them, including 2 wins. His play at Doral, Quail Hollow, and Muirfield Village has proven that this is far beyond just a feel-good story; Alex can really play. He’s gaining off the tee with distance and accuracy, and he’s flashed a very high ceiling with his approach play. Overall, Alex ranks fifth in this week’s field in SG: T2G over the past 24 rounds.

Michael Brennan

All five of my outrights finished in the top 10 of my model this week, and all rank in the top 20 for either driving distance or carry distance. Off the tee, Brennan might be the best of the bunch. He’s thrived on long courses with easy scoring conditions dating back to the fall and his win in Utah.

Brennan’s putter is far from consistent, but that’s not uncommon for a young player in their first year on Tour. I’m hoping he can carry over some momentum from his last start at Colonial where he finished T6 and gained 1.38 strokes per round on the greens. Performances like that, where his best asset is neutralized a bit by the course, are hard to ignore when you’re bullish on the player to begin with.