Noonan’s 2026 3M Open Outright Picks

Noonan’s 2026 3M Open Outright Picks – Ryan Fox put a bow on major championship season with an electric weekend at Royal Birkdale, which had no shortage of drama and storylines for us who follow the game so closely. If you want to hear more of my thoughts on some of the week’s shenanigans, check out this week’s First Look Show on YouTube, or search for Betsperts Golf wherever you listen to podcasts.

With major championship season behind us, it’s officially Mule Season on the PGA Tour. With just three events remaining between now and the playoffs, it’s an important stretch of golf for most of this week’s field.

The playoff field moving from 125 to 70 a few seasons ago has put an increasingly large number of players on the bubble, and with just the 3M Open, Rocket Classic, and Wyndham Championship left on the schedule, the chances to improve your position or punch your ticket are dwindling away. This change created a lot of drama down the stretch last season, and I’m hoping we see more of the same beginning this week.

That helps improve the strength of this week’s field as the Tour moves back stateside to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. It’s a Par 71, 7,431-yard layout that features bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 13 water hazards in play that challenge golfers off the tee.

Get A Year of Betsperts Golf for FREE!!

TPC Twin Cities is a unique test. The course consistently ranks among the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR for making birdies, but it also produces one of the highest double-bogey-or-worse rates. Water hazards lurk throughout the property, thick rough punishes errant shots, and several risk-reward holes create constant opportunities for both birdies and big numbers. That volatility carries through to a demanding closing stretch where no lead feels secure on Sunday.

This week, driving accuracy, distance from the edge of the fairway, and Bogey Avoidance are more premium than most other “easy scoring” courses. Even so, there should be numerous birdie opportunities and a winning score in the upper teens or higher. With the greens also playing very soft and receptive here over the years, it basically comes down to a test of who can keep their ball dry off the tee, followed by a ball-striking and putting contest.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the TPC Twin Cities course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

Podcast: Apple | Spotify

YouTube: Betsperts Golf

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events, but I mostly stayed within that range. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

This week is unique, though. I like to go a bit lighter here, saving spots for live adds as the tournament develops. There’s a lot of volatility at this event, with the balance of birdies and double bogeys, so I want to have that flexibility to add over the weekend.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s 2026 3M Open Outright Picks -(Without Scheffler)

Jackson Koivun

TPC Twin Cities is a place that can create a lot of separation on the leaderboard due to the high birdie and bogey (or worse) rates. I’m looking for golfers who are elite tee-to-green players, who I trust to keep the ball in play off the tee, and who have the ability to spike on these bentgrass greens. That’s why I’m starting with Jackson Koivun.

This is the type of setup that I think he can take advantage of right away. The much-hyped former top amateur has flashed an all-around game on his way to the professional ranks, with elite tee-to-green play and the ability to hole birdies in bunches. Koivun isn’t particularly long off the tee at this stage of his career, but he ranks third in DFEF and fourth in total driving in his limited sample over the past 12 months, and he’s gained 0.52 strokes putting in his limited PGA Tour starts to date. I think he makes some noise against these softer fields over the next few weeks, and that starts here.

Johnny Keefer

Johnny Keefer is one of the top plays in my model this week, and was a great value at open on Monday morning. The former Korn Ferry Tour POY can go low, and we’ve seen that this season when the scoring conditions are on the easier side. Keefer has a 27.8% birdie or better rate, one of the best marks in the field, over the past 12 months when the scoring conditions are easier than average.

Keefer has been exceptional tee-to-green, gaining 1.47 strokes on the field per round over his past 24 rounds. He has three T-10 or better finishes on Tour this season, including a T-3 in Scotland just two weeks ago. His putter runs hot and cold, but if it’s even field average this week, I like his chances to contend.

Emiliano Grillo

Emiliano Grillo has played well in his past five starts, though he hasn’t truly contended since a solid showing at the Valspar back in March. His past three starts have been encouraging, though, with a T-20 in Canada, a T-23 at Shinnecock, and a T-26 last time out at the John Deere Classic.

Grillo likes these bentgrass greens, especially the ones here in Blaine, Minnesota. Grillo hasn’t won here, but he’s finished T-3, MC, T-2, T-10, T-24, and T-20 at this event, while gaining strokes putting in every stop outside of the missed cut in 2021. He’s accurate off the tee and has a tee-to-green ceiling that I’m looking for this week. If he can pair that with his ability to hole putts here, he’s a great look at his price.