Noonan’s 2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Outright Betting Picks & Preview

Noonan’s 2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Outright Betting Picks & Preview

When someone comes in and drops a 31-under winning score on your property, you need to go back to the drawing board and figure it out. Even when it’s the world’s No. 1.

That’s what we have here this week at TPC Craig Ranch. After Scottie Scheffler‘s boat raced the field by eight shots last year, the renovation to TPC Craig Ranch began immediately. Now, this wasn’t in response to Scheffler’s dominant performance specifically; this was obviously planned, but it was in response to how the course has played for the modern game, and since the PGA Tour’s contract with the venue extends into the 2030’s, something had to be done to change the dynamics a bit.

The Wadkins Design Group, led by former Tour pro Lann Wadkins, made many changes to the property, but didn’t reroute or completely reshape Tom Weiskopf’s original layout and routing. Bunkering around the greens should be more penal, and many of the green complexes were reshaped or rebuilt entirely. New greens always play firm, so that alone should lessen the scoring a bit, and the rye grass fairways will now be covered with zoysia grass, which is more spongy and requires less water, a key design element for a course down in Texas.

For more course and renovation details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Craig Ranch course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• Rolling Form (L6M, L24 Rounds)
• SG: Total (Weak Fields, L36 Rounds)
• SG: Ball-Striking (Easy to gain OTT and on APP)
• SG: Total (Scoring Conditions: Average, Easy, and Very Easy)
• SG: Par 5
• Birdie or better%

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

After carrying a heavy card into last week’s PGA Championship, along with the fact that I think Scottie Scheffler wins this week, I’m a bit lighter than usual. I think this is a week to bet into the “Without Scheffler” or Each-Way markets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s CJ CUP Byron Nelson Outright Betting Picks

Michael Brennan

If Michael Brennan can putt like he did last time he was in Texas, we might have a live one here. Breannan gained 0.92 strokes per round at Memorial Park in Houston back in late March, his best putting performance since his win back in October at the Bank of Utah Championship.

Brennan hits it a mile and has flashed elite ball-striking upside even though he’s struggled at times in his debut season on the PGA Tour. Over the past 12 months, against weaker fields with easier-than-average scoring conditions, no one has gained 2 or more strokes ball-striking at a higher clip than Brennan’s 41.2%. His length helps off the tee, but it also shows up with his ability to give himself scoring looks from 200+ yards out, which is key this week at TPC Craig Ranch. Brennan ranks seventh in the field over the past 12 months with 9.4% of his approaches from 200+ yards out resulting in a birdie or better look inside 15 feet.

I played him at 66/1 in the each-way market, and I think he’s a strong look around 50/1 without Scheffler.

Blades Brown

What Blades Brown continues to do at 18 years old is quite remarkable. He finished T9 two weeks ago at Myrtle Beach, his fourth top 10 or better finish in his past eight starts between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours. His second-round 12-under 60 back at The American Express back in January was insanely impressive. While his final round 74 pushed him down the leaderboard, I’m sure he’d tell you how much he learned from that final round experience, paired with two of this week’s favorites, Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim.

Brown modeled quite well, showcasing upside both on the greens and tee-to-green. He’s fourth in this field in birdie or better rate over the past six months, and while his PGA Tour reps are limited, he’s done well when the setup is easier, like the AmEx, Myrtle, and his solo third-place finish in Puerto Rico. If he plays well enough to earn a late Sunday tee time again, I don’t think he’s holding off or running Scottie Scheffler down, but I believe the moment won’t be too big for him this time around. He’s 68/1 on DraftKings in the “Without Scheffler” market.

Beau Hossler

A “life-altering” ayahuasca retreat in Costa Rica led Beau Hossler to start a coffee business, and I can’t tell you how in I am on what you just read. I think we’d all benefit from responsibly ingested psychedelics every once in a while, and I’m pro all things coffee, so this is a win-win situation.

What was almost a win-win situation was Beau Hossler‘s last start in Myrtle Beach, where he finished T3 with a 64 on moving day, tying for the low round of the tournament. It was Hossler’s third T25 or better finish this season, and he’s back to his elite putting ways after slipping a bit in 2025. His game is not as consistent as it was back in 2023, when he posted 11 top 20s in 34 starts, but I like the former Texas Longhorn standout at 80/1 in the “Without Scheffler” market this week.

Karl Vilips

Birdies and bombs are on the menu this week, and Koala Karl Vilips specializes in this recipe. His win last year in Puerto Rico came on a bombers track, with a winning score of 26-under. Vilips can spike on the greens, gaining 2 or more strokes putting at the eighth-highest rate in this field (25%).

Vilips has gained over a half-stroke on approach over his past 16 rounds, which is well above his baseline rate to date. His best 2026 finishes (T18 American Express, T19 Houston, T13 Zurich, and T24 last time out in Myrtle Beach) have come at places that played driver-heavy off the tee and required the field to go low. If he can pare his recent approach play with a spiked putting week, he could get in the mix here. That’s all we’re looking for at 100/1 (“Without Scheffler”).

Chandler Blanchet

Like Vilips, Chandler Blanchet found success in Puerto Rico, finishing solo this year, one shot off the pace. How he got there looks different than Vilips, though. Blanchet has impressive ball-striking numbers, gaining consistently on approach and off the tee through accuracy.

Blanchet’s putter runs hot and cold, but he seems to like bent grass, which is what we have this week at Craig Ranch. Blanchet won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, including the Korn Ferry Tour Championship at Pete Dye’s French Link Resort, which features bentgrass greens. Last July, Blanchet won the Price Cutter Championship at Highland Spring CC in Missouri, shooting 27-under after firing back-to-back 62s on Thursday and Friday. Highland Spring features not only bentgrass greens but also zoysia grass fairways, a new addition here in 2026 at TPC Craig Ranch. At 150/1, he’s worth a look.