Arnold Palmer One and Done Strategy: Maximizing the Purse at Bay Hill

I’m starting again with a recap of last week’s “suggestions.” Berger being the stinker of the safe picks was surprising, but most of it came in the last few holes on Sunday when his brain stopped working. Twitter darling Michael Kim was a nice surprise. It feels like he’s going to win one this year (not a big one, but like 3M/Detroit/Alt Event).

Anyway, last week’s results:

Safe* (*as safe as one can be in Florida)

Daniel Berger T25
Russell Henley T6
Sepp Straka T11
Min Woo Lee T11
Ben Griffin T4

Squirrely (barely)

Michael Kim T6
Davis Thompson CUT
Billy Horschel T25

Heading into this week, we are in a very important two-week stretch.  The API is a signature event, bringing a massive purse with it.  Next week is even bigger, with $25 million on the table at Sawgrass.  You kind of need to nail these.  No pressure.

Top 10 Finishes

Pulling up “cutmakers” in a field full of major champs can be a bit of an exercise in futility, so I sorted today by top 10%.  As usual, the Texan is miles ahead, but that’ll be the case at any stop he find himself at this year.

Par Four Scoring

The six toughest holes are par 4s.  While you need to find ways to score on the 5s, the winners will take care of business and find pars on the meatgrinder part of the course.  Looking at Par 4 efficiency over the past year.  Again, Scottie.

Looking at Comp Courses

Once again, I built out a model to save for next year with the rolling performance at 10 comp courses to see how the field has played on courses that match Bay Hill either agronomically or by how they play.  You’ll never guess who’s coming up first overall.

 

 

Thesis/Suggestions

It’s a big purse, and you should be using someone you consider a top 10-15 player in your ratings.  You can use Scottie if you don’t want to save him for the Players, a major, or the playoffs.  That’s probably a decision you need to make based on the size of your pool.  I’m skipping him here under the assumption he’s the best play from a pure “how many points will I score” standpoint at all the signature events and majors.  If you are in a huge pool with multiple entries, you could go a little further down the board with some guys more in the 10-20 in the world type of ratings.

Big Guns

Rory McIlroy
Ludvig Aberg
Xander Schauffele

Need to get unique?

Tommy Fleetwood
Sungjae Im
Sam Burns

As always, if you want to use our data, play around with some models, or check what the experts built this week, head on over and take advantage of our first month for just $10 deal.  It’s going away after Bay Hill.  Just use promo code MONTH10 when signing up for a monthly plan.