2026 Valero Texas Open- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The Valero Texas Open is the calm before next week’s storm at Augusta National. While most of the world’s elite are skipping the trip to San Antonio, 9 of the top 20 players in the OWGR have chosen this event as their warm-up for Augusta National. It’s one of the best fields ever in San Antonio, and it provides one last opportunity for anyone not in next week’s field to punch their ticket with a win.

This Greg Norman design is pretty straightforward. It plays 7,438 yards from the tips as a Par-72. The fairways are narrow and firm, but like last week in Houston, the rough isn’t overly penal. It plays differently off the tee compared to Houston because wayward drives are penalized. The course utilizes much of the natural landscape surrounding it, including rocky wastelands, tall grasses, and native plants.

This setup brings every golfer into play. It’s a long course, with difficult-to-reach Par-5s, which forces a lot of layups and common landing spots among the field. Distance is always king, but it is not a requirement here. Off the tee, I’d prefer accuracy, in the form of distance from the edge of the fairway, or at least lean toward a golfer ranking higher in Good Drives% than one who thrives on driving distance.

Approach ranges vary, but we see a higher dispersion of both long irons (200+ yards) and wedges (100 yards and in) here because of the length. Wedge play will be key on the Par-5s, and holding greens with long irons is tricky, especially if the wind is acting up, so scrambling is also essential to success, particularly for longer hitters who are more aggressive on these long par-5s.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Oaks course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Tee-to-Green (Scoring Conditions Difficult and Very Difficult)
• SG: Ball-striking (Gaining on APP and OTT Difficult and Very Difficult)
• Recent Form (SG: Total Last 12, 24, and 36 Rounds)
• Distance From The Edge of the Fairway
• Par 5 Scoring Average
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Windy (Forecast dependent, but always worth a look here)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot for 1.5 units, sometimes up to 2 for bigger events. I think this structure is important, and it helps steady the tides of outright betting. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

I’m going a bit lighter this week, saving room for a live add if it makes sense. Also, there’s a little tournament down in Georgia next week, and I have a history of overextending myself on that one.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Valero Texas Open Outright Targets

Russell Henley (18/1)

I think I’ve made it past the point where I have to explain how good Russell Henley really is. His price in the market finally reflects that. The struggle for me now is that it’s significantly more cost-prohibitive to blindly bet him than it has been in the past. Admittedly, short of 20/1 is a lot less appealing, but TPC San Antonio is such an incredible fit for his game.

This is one of those venues that I’m surprised he doesn’t come to annually. Perhaps it’s the spot on the schedule, but Henley’s only been here once (T4 in 2024) in the past seven years. This course favors accuracy over distance, prioritizes strong iron and wedge play, par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and a low ball flight to navigate the inevitable swirling Texas winds.

Over the past 50 rounds, Henley leads the field in distance from the edge of the fairway, a far superior way to measure driving accuracy. In my Rabbit Hole model, he also grades out favorably in approach (8th over the past 50 rounds), par-5 scoring (14th), bogey avoidance (2nd), and he’s 13th in SG: Windy (17+ mph gusts) over the past 24 windy rounds. I’m going to bypass the each-way market here, and just back Henley to win.

Sepp Straka (29/1)

It’s not uncommon for me to double-tap these Georgia Bulldogs when the course setup is like this. Sepp Straka and Russell Henley have many similarities in their games. Henley’s short game chops are better, but otherwise, both are extremely accurate off the tee, elite from inside 150 yards, and consistent at keeping big numbers off their scorecards.

Straka’s finished T18 or better in four of his past five starts, and had a real shot to get in the mix late on Sunday at The PLAYERS before eventually finishing T8, one shot better than Henley (T13). TPC San Antonio is a difficult ball-striking test, and when we look over the past 18 months at who’s been the best at gaining strokes in these conditions, Sepp Straka grades out incredibly well. On a board with a lot of short prices, I think Straka’s price between 25-29 is quite fair.

Johnny Keefer (55/1, e/w 6-places)

I love a good ‘home course’ narrative, but I won’t back it blindly unless you go out and lead the field in SG: T2G the week before. Johnny Keefer calls San Antonio home, and TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course his home track. The former Baylor Bear has a ton of experience here, and he’s bringing exceptional form with him as he tees it up here for the first time as a professional.

The 2025 Korn Ferry Tour’s Player of the Year led the field in SG: T2G last week (3.08 strokes per round). He was flat to the field in putting (-0.06 strokes), but made just 36.4% of his putts from 10-15 feet, compared to champion Gary Woodland, who drained 80% of his from the same range. Keefer’s lag putting was excellent, though, as was his around-the-green game, where he gained over 2 full shots on the field for the week.

I’m looking for Keefer to mix his form from Houston with his experience around TPC San Antonio. He’s in the field for next week’s Masters, but I doubt he’s looking past this start. I played Keefer at 55/1, covering 6 places in the each-way market.

William Mouw (115/1)

When I dive deep into the bottom of the betting board, I lean even more on recent form. And if you look over the past few events, William Mouw is going under the radar.

Mouw was a surprise winner last summer in the alt-field ISCO Championship, and he’s built some momentum off of that win. He mixed in a few missed cuts since his win, but he played well to end 2025, and he’s currently in the midst of a strong three-tournament stretch. A T6 at PGA National was followed up by a T24 at TPC Sawgrass, a huge step up in field strength and difficulty. Mouw’s short game let him down in Houston (T44), but he continues to gain strokes off the tee with distance and accuracy. The short game struggles weren’t unique to Memorial Park, but in the search for ceiling, I’m looking for Mouw to continue to hit greens at an above-average clip and take advantage of these on Par-5s.