Golf Betting2026 US Open Final Bets, Props, Weather, DraftKings Notes, Pick’em Plays | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 US Open Final Bets, Props, Weather, DraftKings Notes, Pick’em Plays | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo

3 days ago

US OPEN CHEATSHEET

If you can’t read—or simply enjoy having bets and news read to you: YOU’RE IN LUCK!!!!!!

In case you missed any of the other content this week (SHAME), it’s all right here

US Open Bets, One & Done, Weather, Picks | Inside the Ropes from Shinnecock Hills w/ Keith Stewart

DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Ownership, Strategy | Players Picks in Tough Conditions w/ Tambo & Alex Blickle

Picks, Bets, One and Done | Most CURSED Golfers, Cust Corner, Judge Cust

Geoff, Cust and I will have a Round 1 recap LIVE Thursday night, and the CUT SWEATS will be going live around 430/5pm ET on Friday. See ya there.

COURSE STAT RANKINGS

Not that I followed them to a tee on the outright bets, but I did use the course condition rankings for a lot of my DFS lineups and first-round leaders. Don’t be scared to make your own rankings either. (Find all stat positions here)

GET ACCESS TO ALL TOOLS AT RABBIT HOLE FOR $1 THIS WEEK WITH CODE “USOPEN”!!!!!!

US OPEN QUICK BETS

WINNER

Matt Fitzpatrick +2600 (Number at Coolbet)
Russell Henley +4500
Chris Gotterup +5500
Kurt Kitayama +8000 (8 Places)
Alex Fitzpatrick +11000 (8 Places)
Chris Kirk +30000 (8 Places)

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FIRST ROUND LEADER

FEEL ALIVE IN THE AM FIRST ROUND 3-BALL

Gotterup over Brooks & Cam Young +200
James Nicholas over Montgomery & Surrat +190
Matthew Jordan over Tosti & Kyes +110

Parlay: +1700

MISS CUT PARLAY(s)

Brooks/Cam Young/Bryson +2200

2026 US OPEN PICKS POOL

I am once again asking for your help to fill the PME Picks Pool!!!!!! Come on, it takes like 10 seconds to enter: Five picks, $15 Salary Cap, $20 to play, $2000 to first. Choose wisely.

PLAY IN $20 ($2K TO 1st) PME PICKS POOL

US OPEN PICKS

Chris Gotterup — Two wins this year, four over the past 12 months, and now we get a course that can showcase the best of his abilities. The fairways are wide enough to accommodate his prodigious driver (6th in Driving Distance; 12th in SG: OTT), and he enters having gained on approach in 12 of his past 13 starts. His chipping can always be an issue, yet he was able to use his creativity from just off the green in his first go-round at Augusta National (T24) this year, as well as at last year’s Scottish Open (Win) and Open Championship (T3). And with expected gusty conditions this week, this Jersey boy has proven he can win when the winds start to rise. You see, my theory is he plays so well in the wind because his gold chain works as an anchor to keep him steady.

Matt Fitzpatrick — Already a U.S. Open champion, Fitzpatrick has worked his way up to No. 4 in the world rankings with three victories over the past few months. His ball striking has been immaculate, and his ability to navigate wind and firm conditions is among the world’s best, a lot of which has to do with his now-elite chipping. Fitz ranks only behind Andrew Putnam and Scottie Scheffler in SG: ATG this season. And he remains weirdly undervalued compared to his peers on the odds board. (PME BOOST to +2600 available at COOLBET right now)

Russell Henley — I’m never a big Henley guy. However, if it’s a grind-it-out contest where distance may not matter, that seems right in his wheelhouse. He’s picked up wins at a bunch of wind-affected courses during his career and has put together a rather sterling U.S. Open résumé: four Top-15 finishes in the past five years at wildly different courses. He was tied for the first-round lead here in 2018 as a kicker.

Kurt Kitayama — Kitayama has started to pile up a résumé of consistent finishes in strong-field events while beginning to turn his putter around. He’s posted five straight Top-25 finishes, all in Majors or Signature Events, and is one of the few non-elite names to sit inside the Top 30 in both driving and approach over the past three months. Coastal wind courses are kind of his specialty, too!

Alex Fitzpatrick — No player from down the board has been more consistently solid with his driving and irons than mini-Fitz since he joined the TOUR. Couple that with his extensive experience in windy, links-style golf, and you have a surprise on your hands if he can manage his short game. Since winning the Zurich with his brother, he’s played in three Signature Events, finishing inside the Top 10 in all three.

Chris Kirk — If the assignment is to lose as much money as possible, Kirk fits the bill. Look, the data doesn’t support Kirk whatsoever—know that—butttttttttt, his approach play is quietly trending upward, and his once-vaunted accuracy off the tee has returned. Can he putt anymore? No, he cannot. That’s an issue. Still, he’s been pretty good on USGA setups over the past two years, finishing T26 and T12 in the past two National Opens. Plus, he made a hole in one during his practice round. If he does that a bunch of times during the event (now that he knows the strategy) I’m thinking he should have a good shot of winning.

WEATHER

Rarely do you see a U.S. Open where the wind takes precedence over the usual “random balls dropped in the rough” discourse, but here we are.

Thursday looks insane. If any of your guys can post +3 or better, consider it a win. It’s projected to be so windy that the USGA has reportedly slowed the greens in advance of Round 1. The best of it appears to be as early as possible (hence five of my six FRL bets coming from the early wave), but even the early wind is still quite forceful.

Just pray. That’s the strategy.

Friday and Saturday look bad too, just not quite as bad as Thursday, and Sunday actually looks pretty scoreable. A chaser could emerge, post a number with the wind down on Sunday, and ride a hot putter into contention. Keep a few bullets in the chamber in case you want to fire.

The Rabbit Hole LIVE leaderboard can assist with that, btw.

DRAFTKINGS

It’s not tough building Scottie teams, even at his price point, but expect him to be paired with Si Woo, Cantlay, and Kitayama quite often. They’re the most popular players in the remaining salary ranges after you click Scheffler. Expect those three to pop up in plenty of double-stud builds, too: Rahm/Fitz, Xander/Aberg, etc.

Anticipate a boost for anyone with an AM tee time on Thursday as well. Not that it will certainly be an advantage, but it’s the prevailing narrative right now.

I built 55 lineups this week. Twenty are AM-stacked, and 10 are PM-stacked. Predicting ownership is far easier than predicting the wind at any given time. One delay or wind flip, and the other side becomes the nuts.

From the top, Bryson, Brooks, and Justin Rose are being completely overlooked. I’d expect all three to come in at single-digit ownership, with the floor for each around 5%.

Niemann and Lowry are also being passed over in the low-$7K range, which I think is a mistake. They’re both PM-wave guys, so people are staying away, but Lowry has an excellent track record in the wind, while Niemann has been amazing on firm, fast courses and possesses one of the lowest ball flights in the field.

No one is currently projecting above 10% ownership below $7K. Rai, English, Kitayama, AFITZ, Adam Scott, Reitan, and Cam Smith are all getting some love down there.

I’ve spread it out across a bunch of players in this range, including Noren, Gerard, Berger, Sungjae, Bridgeman, English, Conners, Puig, DJ, Fox, Grillo, and Harry Hall, along with English, Kitayama, AFITZ, Adam Scott, and Smith.

I’m far more locked in up top and decided to scattershot down here.