2026 RBC Canadian Open: 8 Data Points to Build into Your Model this Week

The 2026 RBC Canadian Open returns to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley North Course in Caledon, Ontario, and the eight strokes gained data points below are the ones to build into your model this week. The North Course is a modern parkland layout designed by Doug Carrick, set up as a par 70 of roughly 7,389 yards on the championship card, and it ranks among the most scorable tests on the PGA Tour. In its debut a year ago it played about a stroke and a half under par, with little built-in defense.

Wide bentgrass and Poa fairways near 37 yards, large and fairly flat greens around 6,500 square feet, bluegrass rough close to 3.75 inches, water on only three holes, and roughly 48 bunkers add up to a course that gives up low rounds. Wind is the one thing that turns it ugly, and the forecast carries gusts into the 20s with a chance of 30 mph on Thursday and Sunday. Tommy Fleetwood sits atop the board as a co-favorite near +1200, prized as the best driver in the group on a course that rewards long and straight tee shots.

The headline storyline is the English wave at the top, with Fleetwood, both Fitzpatrick brothers, and Justin Rose all in range, plus Brooks Koepka tuning up for next week’s U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, while Wyndham Clark arrives red hot off his win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

The Foundation, Start Here

1. Strokes Gained Off the Tee

View: Off The Tee | Column: SG:OTT | Possible Filters: Course Length Long, OTT Club Driver Heavy, Fairway Surface Bent

Total driving beats raw distance here. The North Course called for driver on roughly 80 percent of tee shots last year, so the players who gained strokes off the tee, not simply the longest hitters, controlled their own week. Tommy Fleetwood near +1200 is the cleanest expression of that profile, a long and straight driver who does not give shots back. Alex Fitzpatrick at a number around +4900 fits the same long and straight mold at a far longer price, and Kristoffer Reitan, an elite driver who keeps contending on longer courses, has led recent fields tee to green. Nicolai Hojgaard belongs in the same group of long, accurate drivers worth modeling up.

2. Strokes Gained Approach

View: Approach | Column: SG:APP | Possible Filters: Gain APP Average, GIR Accuracy Easy, Greens Surface Bent/Poa

Approach difficulty grades out near tour average, so the hottest recent iron players separate themselves rather than the course separating them. Wyndham Clark, who led the field in approach at the Memorial and sits around +2200 after steady steam, is the headline fit. Justin Rose was number one in the field in approach through three rounds his last time out and is priced near +2800, a useful leverage angle given his event history. Matt Fitzpatrick near +1400 is an elite iron player whose only question is the putter, which makes the approach number the part of his profile you can trust.

3. Strokes Gained Tee to Green

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:T2G | Possible Filters: Course Length Long, Scoring Conditions Easy, Field Strength Strong

With high greens in regulation devaluing the short game, the overall ball-striking number is the foundation, and the putter becomes the tiebreaker. Brooks Koepka has been the best ball striker in the field over the last few months, sits near +2500, and is plainly motivated before Shinnecock. Alex Fitzpatrick rates as elite tee to green at a long number, the reason Rick Run Good called his price criminal value. Kristoffer Reitan rounds out the group as a tee-to-green leader over his recent stretch, the kind of complete striker this course rewards.

Getting Granular, One Layer Deeper

4. Wedge Approach Proximity

View: Fairway Approach Proximity | Column: Fairway 100-150 | Possible Filters: Fairway Accuracy Easy, Gain APP Average, Greens Size Large

The course funnels a high volume of approaches into the 50 to 125 yard wedge range, so sharp wedge proximity is worth more than usual this week. From wide, well-attended fairways the field will have plenty of scoring clubs in hand, and the players who stuff wedges turn that access into birdies. Wyndham Clark and Matt Fitzpatrick are the high-end iron players who thrive in this band, and Aaron Rai near +4800 is a precise wedge player whose spike rounds fit a scorable setup. This is where a model that weights the short approach distances pulls ahead of one built on raw distance alone.

5. Long Approach Proximity

View: Overall Approach Proximity | Column: 200+ | Possible Filters: Course Length Long, Par 70, Gain APP Average

The other half of the approach picture is a glut of long shots from 200 yards and out, with the middle of the bag devalued, so long iron control matters more than mid iron polish. Nicolai Hojgaard, whose high ball flight holds large greens, is a natural fit from these distances. Brooks Koepka and Kristoffer Reitan also profile well when the approach is long, since both pair length with quality strikes. Fleetwood gains here too, which is part of why he models so cleanly across the whole ball-striking picture.

6. Strokes Gained Putting on Bent and Poa

View: Putting | Column: SG:P | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Bent/Poa, Greens Size Large, Greens Speed Average

Putting was the separator in year one, when five of the top seven gained four or more strokes on the greens. The bentgrass and Poa surface rewards specialists, and Sam Burns near +1400 is the headline name, the best putter on tour, a gainer of more than a stroke and a half per round on bent and Poa, and last year’s runner-up in the playoff. Brooks Koepka putts his best on this surface, which strengthens his ball-striking case. Aaron Rai is a reliable bent-grass putter at a long price, while Matt Fitzpatrick has drifted toward +1400 precisely because the cold putter is getting priced in.

Down the Rabbit Hole

7. Par 5 Scoring

View: Par 5 Efficiency | Column: SG: Par 5 | Possible Filters: Par 5 Scoring Easy, Course Length Long, Par 70

The card opens and closes with a par 5, and you have to make hay on both. Par 5 scoring is a quiet swing factor on a par 70 that carries only two of them, since every birdie there is a stroke you do not have to manufacture on the four long par 4s that stretch past 500 yards. The long hitters who can reach in two hold the edge, which again points at Fleetwood, Hojgaard, and Sam Burns, whose distance fits the soft setup. Weight par 5 scoring alongside the driving and approach numbers rather than in place of them.

8. Course History and Comps

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:TOT | Possible Filters: Course Length Long, Greens Surface Bent/Poa, Event Type 36 hole Cut, plus tick Load Comp Courses

Only one prior edition exists at this venue, so lean on comparable courses to widen the sample. Tick the Load Comp Courses checkbox to pull in TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Deer Run, Detroit Golf Club, and TPC River Highlands, the scorable tracks the previews keep citing as fair comps. Sam Burns lost in a playoff here last year and his comp history backs the model rather than fighting it. Covers flagged Eric Cole at +4500 as a longshot best bet on strong recent metrics, though that is a single-source lean for now, so treat it as a watch rather than a confirmed play.

Think driving matters more than putting this week? Prove it. With code GIMME your first month of The Rabbit Hole is $10, then $29.99 a month, and you can weight the strokes gained PGA categories however you want.

Pulling It All Together for the RBC Canadian Open

The profile reads long and straight off the tee, wedge and long iron heavy on approach, bent and Poa putting as the separator, and par 5 scoring as the quiet edge, all of it scorable unless the wind shows up. That points the betting leans at the supported ball-strikers first, with Tommy Fleetwood near +1200, Wyndham Clark near +2200, and Brooks Koepka near +2500, then value at longer numbers in Alex Fitzpatrick around +4900, Aaron Rai near +4800, and Kristoffer Reitan in the +2200 to +3300 range.

Sam Burns near +1400 is divisive on price and ownership, but sits near the top of multiple models on fit and form, so he is a build-around for some cards and a leverage fade on others.

For finishing markets, Justin Rose near +2800 and Nicolai Hojgaard make sense in the top 10, and the English winner angle is a fair lean given how many Englishmen sit at the top. The main fade is Robert MacIntyre at a short number near +3000 on lost ball-striking form, with Corey Conners a second pass-on despite the home narrative and course fit, since his recent form has produced no top 30s.

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