TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas hosts the CJ Cup Byron Nelson from May 21 through 24, and this year the course itself is the headline. A $25 million renovation led by Lanny Wadkins reopened the property in December 2025 with new grass varieties throughout, two structurally changed holes, and a tighter overall footprint. The course still measures par 71, but it now plays 7,385 yards, which is 184 yards shorter than the version players knew before. The scoring floor here has been 23 under or better in every year since 2021, so treat this as a birdie contest rather than a par-saving grind. Here is everything you need to build your model and find the best bets at betspertsgolf.com.

NOTE: These filters are optional ways to get deeper into the data. They will sometimes limit your sample size and force you to widen your time frame, but they are useful ways to determine who is excelling in the categories that matter most at TPC Craig Ranch. Any questions? Hit us up in the Discord.

The Foundation, Start Here

SG: Approach

Iron play has been the single most reliable predictor at Craig Ranch every year this event has been held. K.H. Lee said as much after his back-to-back wins, and the leaderboards have backed it up since. The renovation tightened the fairways and added penalty areas, but it did not change the core identity of the course. Birdies still come from quality approach shots into makeable looks, and the players who gain strokes on approach week after week are the ones who post the low numbers required to contend here. Pull SG: Approach over the past three months and widen to six months for any player with a thin recent sample.

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG: APP | Possible Filters: Gain APP Average, Field Strength Average, Course Length Long

Proximity from 125 to 175 Yards

If SG: Approach is the foundation, proximity from 125 to 175 yards is the most course-specific layer to stack on top. This is the dominant iron yardage at Craig Ranch, and the players who hit it close from this range will create the volume of birdie chances this event demands. The new bentgrass greens reward a player who can leave the ball below the hole and inside short-range putting distance. Do not lean on overall proximity numbers, which dilute the signal with longer approach shots that matter less here. Pull proximity data from the 125 to 150 and 150 to 175 yard buckets and weight it heavily.

View: Overall Approach Proximity | Column: Proximity 100-150, Proximity 150-200 | Possible Filters: Greens Bent, Scoring Conditions Easy to Average

Birdie Rate and Scoring Conversion

You cannot win at Craig Ranch without making birdies in bunches. Even with the renovation tightening the layout, the projected winning score sits in the 23 to 27 under range. The new bentgrass greens, new 18th hole, and biarritz fourth green will create a few more card-wrecking moments than this course has had before, but the path to the top of the leaderboard still runs through volume scoring. Pull birdie rate and scoring opportunity conversion over the past three months to identify the players who keep their foot down across all four rounds rather than the ones who post one hot number and fade.

View: Scoring | Column: Birdie % | Possible Filters: Scoring Conditions Easy to Average, Field Strength Average

Getting Granular, One Layer Deeper

SG: Putting on Bentgrass

This is the most important change to handicap this week. Craig Ranch transitioned its greens to 777 Bentgrass during the renovation, a variety chosen for speed, consistency, and smoothness. The prior surface is no longer a useful reference. Players with strong bentgrass putting records from other venues deserve a bump, and pure Craig Ranch course specialists who built their history on the old surface deserve a discount. Filter SG: Putting specifically to bentgrass greens rather than overall putting to keep the signal clean.

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG: P | Possible Filters: Greens Bent, Gain Putting Average

3-Putt Avoidance on Fast New Greens

Fresh, smooth bentgrass at tournament speed produces fast surfaces, and speed control becomes a real separator. Players who consistently two-putt from long range will protect their cards while others give back the strokes they earned with their irons. This filter pairs naturally with the bentgrass putting filter above and helps you find players who handle pace rather than players who simply make a lot of short putts. Pull three-putt avoidance over the past 12 months on bentgrass surfaces for the cleanest read.

View: Putting | Column: 3-Putt AVD % | Possible Filters: Greens Bent, Greens Speed Fast

Bogey Avoidance on Tighter Fairways

The renovation narrowed the fairways to 25 to 28 yards, which is closer to TPC Sawgrass and Quail Hollow than the generous layout players remember. Position off the tee matters more than it used to. Add Hell’s Full Acre on the par five fifth, the relocated third green near Rowlett Creek, and water in play on 13 holes, and the course will produce more big numbers than its old reputation suggested. Zoysiagrass fairways can also promote flyers, which punishes players with shaky distance control. Pull bogey avoidance over the past three months to find the players who keep the round clean when the course bites.

View: Scoring | Column: Bogey AVD % | Possible Filters: Scoring Conditions Average, Course Region Texas

Down the Rabbit Hole

Par 5 Scoring

Two par fives remain on the property, including the extended 624-yard fifth hole and the 540-yard 12th, which is now the only par five on the back nine. With the closing par five converted to a 480-yard par four, the back nine offers fewer scoring chances than before, which raises the value of cashing in on the par fives when they are available. Pull par 5 scoring over the past 12 months and use it to find players who turn reachable holes into birdies and eagles rather than settling for routine pars.

View: Par 5 Efficiency | Column: Par 5 Avg | Possible Filters: Scoring Conditions Easy to Average, Course Length Long

Zoysia Fairway History

This is a light supporting layer, not a primary filter. Stadium Zoysiagrass was installed throughout the fairways, and Zoysia plays differently underfoot than Bermuda or bentgrass. Players who have logged competitive rounds on Zoysia fairways at venues like Bellerive, Atlanta Athletic Club, or select international events may have a small adjustment edge in a week where every player is seeing the new surface for the first time. Pull SG: Total from Zoysia venues over the past several years and weight it lightly to confirm your top model targets.

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG: TOT | Filters: None | Select Zoysia fairway venues under Courses. Widen your time frame to at least three years.

Byron Nelson FAQs

How much should you trust pre-2026 Craig Ranch course history?

Treat it with real skepticism. The greens are a different surface, the 18th is a completely different hole, the fourth green has a biarritz design that did not exist before, and the fairways are tighter. Five years of history is a baseline, not a blueprint. Lean toward players with elite all-around bentgrass putting records over pure Craig Ranch specialists who built their numbers on the old course.

Is Scottie Scheffler worth the price?

Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite around +150, and the gap to the next name on the board is enormous. He is a hometown player who grew up in Highland Park, opened with a 61 here in 2025, and led wire to wire. The price is justified. In large-field GPP formats, though, fading him for differentiation is a defensible play given how lopsided the pricing is.

Who else fits this course profile?

Si Woo Kim has been the most consistent non-Scheffler performer at this venue and treats it as a circled date. Jordan Spieth tends to elevate in Texas, grew up in Dallas, and has spoken publicly about wanting this title. Sungjae Im and Stephan Jaeger both bring the steady iron play this course rewards. All four can fit the approach and putting blueprint that has defined Craig Ranch.

Pulling It All Together

The architecture of a Craig Ranch model is built around one overriding truth. This is an iron play and putting golf course where the leaderboard reflects the players who make the most birdies. Start with SG: Approach, layer in proximity from 125 to 175 yards and birdie rate, then confirm with bentgrass putting and three-putt avoidance on the new greens. Add bogey avoidance for the tighter fairways and par 5 scoring for the two remaining birdie holes. The renovation adds uncertainty, so weight clean bentgrass putting data over old course history. When your model is complete you will have a card built on the specific demands of a familiar venue wearing a brand new look.

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Responsible Gambling and Bankroll Management

A sharp read on a renovated course means nothing if a few reckless bets drain your account by Friday. Before you place your first wager of the week, decide what your total bankroll looks like and commit to it. Discipline with money separates the bettor who is still in action next month from the one who is not.

A few simple habits will protect you over the long run:

• Size each bet between one and three percent of your total bankroll
• Track every wager so you know exactly what is working and what is not
• Take a break if the action starts to feel emotional rather than analytical
• Set a weekly cap before the tournament starts and respect it
• Never chase losses with a bigger bet on the next event

Have you settled on your unit size for this week yet? If the answer is no, handle that before you place a single bet. If you find yourself wagering beyond your limits or thinking about gambling more than you would like, support is available through your state’s problem gambling resources.  21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources