Pat Mayo’s 2026 RBC Canadian Open Bets: Weather, DraftKings Notes, Pick’em Plays

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Canadian Open Bets

WINNER

• Nicolai Hojgaard +3300
• Alex Noren +3700
• Alex Fitzpatrick +4800 (Number still at Coolbet!)
• Michael Brennan +5000
• Max Greyserman +6600 (5 Places)

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BOMBS

• Jackson Suber +12500 (8 Places)
• Max Homa +16000 (3 Places)
• Neal Shipley +22500 (8 Places)

Canadian Open Bets

Nicolai Hojgaard — Feels kinda like leaping off the pier with the boat half a mile from shore. Maybe Nicolai missed his chance. But again, maybe it’s the perfect time to finally put it all together. No stranger to windy conditions, Højgaard has remained massively impressive from tee to green since the Masters (except last week!) and has actually started to make a few putts, too. The Dane excels at driver-heavy courses (82% driver rate a year ago at TPC Toronto) and, while the field is certainly strong, it’ll be the first non-Major or Signature Event he’s played since his T2 in Houston.

Alex Noren — Noren’s irons continue getting better, the putter has remained hot, and whatever the early season issue was with his short game appears to be solved. He’s even hitting more fairways as of late. Based on the profile from a year ago, Noren would be a great fit even without elite distance; however, if the weather is simply bad all week, that definitely plays to his favor. No, he’s never won on the PGA TOUR, but he did claim Europe’s toughest event at Wentworth last year, his 12th DP World Tour victory.

Alex Fitzpatrick — Since earning his TOUR card with his brother at the Zurich, Alex has actually been better than Matt. Entering Canada, over the past two months, Alex leads all players in the field in ball striking, and while his putting hasn’t been great, when he spikes, he spikes BIGLY. Using the data from the Rabbit Hole, every time AFITZ has gained at least one stroke in a round with his putter, he’s gained over 2.0 strokes. Kinda wild.

Michael Brennan — He’ll be among the leaders with the driver. This we know. And he’s started to put together some solid approach and putting weeks. He came close at Colonial; he can come closer here.

Max Greyserman — Things were trending upward for Greyserman over the last month until he headed to the Fort Worth region for the Charles Schwab. After improving his finish in four consecutive starts, beating the field in driving and approach each time, he posted one of the ten worst rounds of his career to open at Colonial. Happens. Doesn’t erase his progress, and he was able to post those quality results without igniting his putter. There’s a chance he’s simply not good on the greens anymore, but it’s far more likely one of the best putters over the last two years can kick his slump and spike to match his ball striking.

Max Homa — If this is the week Homa remembers how to hit his irons, WATCH OUT!!! If not, WATCH OUT… bottom of the leaderboard.

Jackson Suber —Riding in on three made cuts in a row, Suber’s driving and irons have never been better.

Neal Shipley — Despite missing basically every cut, the once-touted prospect continues to mash off the tee. Every. Single. Week. Rest of the game hasn’t caught up, yet. Shipley earned a spot in the US Open earlier this week, so hopefully it’s the kick in the ass he needed to get going on TOUR.

Canadian Open Bets – Weather

Here is the forecast Wednesday for this event a year ago…

Now, here’s what we’re expecting in 2026

WIND TOWER: Caledon

Few things. There’s no clear advantage to either wave, but stacking a few lineups both ways could luck you into an advantage if one materializes. Since we’ve only seen this course host one tournament with PGA players, there’s no telling what 3x wind in 2026 will do to scoring. I’d imagine it plays tougher, but my imagination has been known to be wrong. Either way, I’ve loaded up on Euros and Texans.

Canadian Open Bets: DraftKings

As expected, Fleetwood/Burns/Clark from the top stick out over Matt Fitz, while the mini tier of Brooks/Bobby Mac/Rose/Hovland are all coming in far lower than those priced around them. The betting love for Michael Brennan doesn’t appear as it’ll translate to DK ownership. The field would rather pay up for Reitan/AFITZ or down to Rai/Bridgeman/Cole. In fact, that entire middle 8K range is going wildly under-owned. They just get squeezed out of lineups.

From below, Old Yella/Finau/Bauchou/Putnam are all getting some love, but it looks quite flat under 7,500. Take whoever ya like best.

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We released a fun bonus show Wednesday afternoon. Me, Blickle, Rasa, and Cust did our draft in the King of the Draft contest. Since Cust was on, we did a mini Cust Corner and took a Judge Cust case too.

The rules are simple: Snake Draft a DK lineup for the week. Top 2 of 4 move on.

WATCH: Canadian Open DraftKings Snake Draft | King of the Draft Qualifier + Cust Corner & Judge Cust

Here’s my squad.

Canadian Open Bets: Underdog

If you’re like me, you woke up to some extra funds in your Underdog account from PGA Best Ball. Hopefully the bigger paydays are still on the horizon however. Nailed the Rd 1 play from last week, so let’s make it two in a row. These fairways are quite generous, but the field only hit them at a 65% rate a year ago, and it should be down from that based on the wind forecasted.

TAIL OR FADE ON UNDERDOG AND GET A BONUS UP TO $1000

Hell, why not another since I have that extra $$$ right now

TAIL OR FADE ON UNDERDOG AND GET A BONUS UP TO $1000

Care to get really wild?

TAIL OR FADE ON UNDERDOG AND GET A BONUS UP TO $1000