2025 U.S. Open- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
a year ago
The season’s third major and the 125th edition of our national championship, the U.S. Open, returns to Oakmont Country Club for the tenth time in the club’s history.
There’s no course in the U.S. Open rotation that better exemplifies what the USGA set out to do annually at our national open than Oakmont. The course architect, Henry Fownes, once famously said, “A shot poorly played should be a shot irrevocably lost.” This mantra is branded on every square inch of the 7,372-yard Par-70 layout in western Pennsylvania, which is hosting its record tenth U.S. Open championship.
The answer to this week’s “Distance or Accuracy?” debate is both. The rough is gnarly and will only get worse as the weekend approaches. The wet conditions over the past few days, and possibly over the weekend, will magnify the need for length and accuracy.
The undulation on the fairways and greens is as extreme as you’ll find anywhere in professional golf. And they’ll have the greens running as fast as possible, especially to offset any advantage the field may experience from the course playing softer due to the rain.
One of the most telling indicators of the quality that Oakmont demands is that eight of its nine U.S. Open champions have won multiple majors. This isn’t a venue for a one-off major championship story like LACC or Royal Liverpool. The mental and physical demands of four days and 72 holes should leave us with a worthwhile champion, likely one of this era’s greats. Par is a great outcome, and that goes for every hole and every round.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Oakmont stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total (Scoring Conditions – Very Difficult)
- Hybrid Total Driving (Driving Distance + Accuracy + DFEF)
- SG: Ball-striking (Gain OTT/APP – Very Difficult)
- Scrambling Rough% (Thick rough, Fast Greens)
- Putting Model (Fast Greens)
Noonan’s U.S. Open Outright Targets
Scottie Scheffler
The part that you don’t care about: I bet Scheffler to win this event in the middle of the PGA Championship and then doubled down with a Memorial/U.S. Open parlay to increase my position at a more palatable cost. As it pertains to you now as the reader, I think there are a few ways for you to join the party. I’ll list a few different options that are available outside of the standard +280 that’s currently available on FanDuel, but before that, some handicapping notes on Scheffler.
The world No. 1 is in his own tier, and that’s properly reflected in the betting market right now. Over the last three years, when facing very strong fields and in very difficult scoring conditions, Scheffler has gained 1.18 more strokes per round tee-to-green (T2G) on average than anyone else (46 rounds). That gap from Scottie to Xander/Rory at #2 is the same as the gap from #2 down to #35, Tom Kim. In a week where comp courses are hard to find, this is the best way to parse through the test that lies ahead for this week’s field.
He also leads the field in total strokes gained on long courses, in tough scoring conditions, with strong fields. And again, it’s not very close. At 2.78 strokes per round, he’s 0.78 strokes clear of Xander Schauffele, and the delta only grows larger if you look at T2G or ball striking (BS).
What’s terrifying for Scottie faders is how he’s putting. On the season, he’s ninth in this week’s field in SG: Putting, where he’s gaining 0.42 strokes per round on average. I modeled out the best putters in this week’s field, focusing on performance on fast surfaces and overall lag putting, and Scheffler ranks eighth in this week’s field.
Here are some ways to join me, with most a bit riskier than the +280 outright, but that risk comes with a sweeter pot. I’m not betting on all of these because of my position, but I’m still considering some rather than weakening my position and backing the field.
Scheffler to win by margin (available on MGM or 365):
2+ strokes (+350)
3+ strokes (+500)
4+ strokes (+700)
Scheffler wire-to-wire winner:
18/1 (DraftKings)
Scheffler to play in Final Pairing on Sunday:
+200 (365)
The other two elite golfers that appeal to me the most this week are Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm. There are a few ways to leverage this, again, without weakening my position on Scottie as the winner.
Without Scheffler Market:
DeChambeau +650 (DraftKings)
Rahm +900 (FanDuel)
Straight Forecast (Players to finish 1st/2nd in named order, BetRivers)
Scheffler/DeChambeau (30/1)
Scheffler/Rahm (45/1)
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
I’ll have more thoughts for our subscribers in the Discord this week.