2025 PGA Championship- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The season’s second major is littered with above-the-fold-worthy headlines. Quail Hollow Club, a track we’re very familiar with, plays host to the 107th PGA Championship.

Although the PGA Championship may not hold the same historical significance as the other three major championships in professional golf, it has delivered some of the most entertaining finishes and storylines in recent seasons, and it’s reasonable to expect the 2025 iteration to keep that trend alive.

Since the Quail Hollow Club hosts an annual PGA Tour event, we have a solid understanding of what it takes to identify contenders. Based on how the PGA of America set up the 2017 PGA Championship here at Quail Hollow, I’m anticipating that the course will play slightly more challenging compared to its role as the host of the Wells Fargo/Truist Championship, with thicker rough and faster greens. However, we aren’t starting from scratch in our analysis.

The course is a par-71 layout extending over 7,600 yards from the back tees. Using our course stats page, you’ll see the field has used driver off the tee 85.5% of the time over the last five tournaments at Quail Hollow, which is nearly 20% higher than the average PGA Tour event (67.7%). In the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship, the most recent event held at Quail Hollow, four of the top five golfers in driving distance finished inside the top 10.

The distance requirements at Quail Hollow extend beyond the tee box. During the same timeframe, the average approach distance at this course is 183.1 yards, which is 16.8 yards longer than the Tour average of 167.3 yards. In an average Tour event, 47.3% of second shots come from 175 yards or more; at Quail Hollow, the five-year average is 60.6%.

While putting can be the most variable of all the strokes gained metrics week in and week out, it has consistently been a critical factor for success at Quail Hollow Club. Over the past five iterations, Quail Hollow ranks as the sixth-toughest course on the Tour for gaining strokes through putting. Longer putts will be particularly challenging here, as it is the second toughest course for putts longer than 15 feet. Additionally, the course has a high three-putt rate of 3.95%, compared to the PGA Tour average of 2.84%. These Poa Trivialis greens will be firm and fast, providing a significant test for the players this week.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, and the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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YouTube: Betsperts Golf

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Total (Long Courses + Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• Carry Distance
• SG: Total (Last 5 Years at PGA Championships + U.S. Opens)
• GIR% (Long Course + GIR% Difficult)
• Apex Height
• SG: Putting (Difficult to gain strokes putting)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s PGA Championship Outright Targets

Bryson DeChambeau (14/1)

The 14/1 price is long gone, and rightfully so. Bryson DeChambeau‘s recent major championship form is as good as anyone in the world right now, and it shines brightest on PGA of America and USGA setups like we’ll get this week at Quail Hollow. Over the past five years, Bryson has gained an average of 2.54 strokes per round at PGA Championships and U.S. Opens, the best mark in this week’s field.

Overall, DeChambeau has finished T5 or better in four straight starts, with a T2 (Mexico City) and win (Korea) on LIV since the last time we saw him on a big stage at the Masters. I was extremely impressed by his short game at Augusta, and that performance was in line with what we’ve seen for him around the greens for much of the past calendar year. It’s made him significantly more consistent, and the results have followed.

He’s somehow turned his greatest weapon into an even better version of it, adding distance and accuracy off the tee this season. DeChambeau is 25-30 yards ahead of the average pro in terms of distance, and he’s finding fairways nearly 10% more often than he did in 2024. Knowing that the driving demands at Quail Hollow only accentuate his long, towering draw, he’s hard to avoid this week, and he deserves to be single-digits on the odds board.

Xander Schauffele (22/1)

The defending PGA Champ is rounding into form after missing a chunk of time earlier this season with a rib injury. Schauffele has finished T18 or better in 12 straight major championships, with seven of the past nine being inside the top ten. Good golfers play their best golf when the setup is the toughest, and that’s definitely the case this week.

After struggles at Bay Hill and Sawgrass in his first two starts back, Schauffele seems to have turned a corner. For starters, his iron play has been absolutely elite. He’s gained an average of 1.12 strokes per round on approach over his past four starts. The distance gains that he made last year have stuck, which will play nicely here at Quail Hollow, a course where he’s finished solo second in each of the past two years.

The one edge that Xander’s had over his top-of-the-board peers during the past four to five years is his consistency with the flat stick. That trait was also a bit slow to come back this spring, but he’s now gained strokes putting in three straight starts, including all four rounds at Philly Cricket Club last week (+3.64 strokes).

 

Ludvig Aberg (28/1)

Ludvig has not been sharp of late, but I have a difficult time passing on him at this price, especially when I think these PGA Championship and U.S. Open setups suit his game so well. Aberg was the second-ranked golfer in my model this week, which focused more on course history than a small sample of recent form.

I think the perception here would be different if Aberg hadn’t played through a knee injury last season at Valhalla, a course I believe he could’ve picked apart. His best finishes in 2025 have been on longer golf courses with difficult scoring conditions, and over the past three years, he ranks second in the field in average strokes gained per round on such setups.

Aberg’s one of the best long iron players in the world, and his high ball flight (second in apex height) will help him find more greens in regulation than the field.

Viktor Hovland (55/1)

I don’t know if we can trust Viktor Hovland‘s game right now, mostly because we don’t really know if Hovland himself even trusts it. Hovland is an enigma, but his upside is as tantalizing as anyone in the world. Even throughout his recent swing tweaks and troubles, he’s still been an elite long-iron player. He’s gained an average of 0.72 strokes per round on approach in 2025, the seventh-best rate on the PGA Tour. That doesn’t sound like someone who can’t find their swing.

He’s far less consistent off the tee compared to his peak run in 2023, but he’s been better on driver-heavy courses historically, including recent PGA Championship setups. An unfortunate break in a bunker on the 16th hole at Oak Hill dropped him behind Brooks Koepka at the 2023 PGA, and he was very much in the mix on Sunday in 2024 at Valhalla despite entering in poor form. He posted a T3 finish here at Quail Hollow the first time he saw it in 2021, and at 55/1, there’s top-tier upside at roughly half of the cost.

I also wrote up a few longshot options for our friends over at Golf Digest. You can check that out here.