2024 Rocket Mortgage Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
2 years ago
There’s no way to sugarcoat things here; the North Course at Detroit Golf Club is one of the easiest layouts on the PGA Tour rotation. It’s a traditional parkland venue with tree-lined fairways and flat topography. The Par-72 layout comes in at 7,370 yards, and without the penal areas off the tee and on approach, scoring opportunities will be plentiful. Since the course does not penalize poor shots, there is little separation between great and below-average tee-to-green play. We’ve seen a wide array of golf styles compete at this event, so there’s not a perfect golfer archetype to hone in on this week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, but there are none. Here’s an important tidbit about Detroit Golf Club:
Unlike a course such as TPC Twin Cities, there are no “blow-up” holes here where players are threatened with double-bogey or worse. There are only two holes with any threat of water danger. In fact, there are only two holes on the course with a bogey or worse rate above 20%. The course has the second-fewest number of penalty strokes on Tour, which speaks for the lack of danger off the tee and on approaching the green.
While not as penal as one would think, the Bluegrass rough at Detroit Golf Club is one of the longest in non-major events that golfers will see all year at four inches. Even with many of the greens being diminished in nature from Ross’s original design, the primary defense of Detroit Golf Club is the green complexes. Greens are a mix of Poa annua and bentgrass and run around 12 on the stimpmeter. They contain just enough slope and undulation to cause players to take some precautions with the flat stick. The greens are also smaller than average at only 5,150 square feet.
The four par 5s are among the easiest on Tour with a 43.4% BoB rate and hold one of the keys to unlocking enough birdies to maintain the scoring pace on the leaderboard. Four of the ten par-4s are under 400 yards and combine to produce a bogey-or-worse rate of only 10.4%. The par 3s combine as the eighth-shortest group on Tour, with three of the four playing among the seven toughest holes on the course.
The top of leaderboards at Detroit Golf Club in its first five years as a Tour event has been a veritable group of bombers off the tee, including DeChambeau, Finau, Pendrith, and Cameron Young, who was runner-up in 2022. Fairways are generous and wider than average at over 35 yards, making them the 10th widest on Tour. With few hazards or penal fairway bunkers, there are no forced layups or “danger” areas off the tee. Players are free to blast away with the driver, which is evidenced by 78% of drives hit over 280 yards. Those with extra length will have wedges and short irons into greens on almost every par 4.
When looking at the numbers of past winners, however, this is one the most important putting courses on Tour. As previously mentioned, putting on these surfaces is not easy. While these Donald Ross greens have lost some of their natural movement over the decades, many still feature back-to-front sloping, which is typical of his designs. They rate as the 10th most difficult greens on which to gain strokes putting. And yet, close to 40% of all strokes gained on this course come with the flat stick. That is well above the typical average of 35%. The undulated areas around some of the pin placements make putting even tougher from inside five feet, averaging as the 6th toughest.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
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My top 5 key stats this week:
- SG: Total (Scoring Conditions: Very Easy and Easy, Last 2 Years)
- Driving Distance
- SG: Ball-striking (Club: Driver Heavy + Missed Fairway Penalty: Average and Low)
- Birdie or Better Rate (BOB%)
- SG: P (Green Surface: Bent/Poa, Poa Trivialis, Bent)
Noonan’s Rocket Mortgage Betting Picks
Maverick McNealy
Mav McNealy is quietly playing some outstanding golf right now. He made the cut in 12 straight starts, which includes three T9 or better finishes, including his last start at the Canadian Open (T7). He’s one of the best putters in the field every time he tees it up, and I’m giving that skill more credence this week than almost any other week this season.
Mav ranks fifth in this week’s field in overall birdie or better rate over the past six months, and when you dial into the specific bentgrass/poa putting splits that matter for this week, McNealy ranks fourth over a two-year sample comparable surfaces. He’s also drastically improved his ball-striking, both off the tee and on approach. He was field average in terms of distance, but he’s added club head speed and become more consistent with his irons, which speaks to his recent run of competitive finishes.
Over the past two seasons, Mav McNealy has gained one or more strokes putting in 40.4% of his rounds, topped only by Taylor Montgomery. He’s a great look to finish inside the top 20 in this field, and I like his outright chances at 30/1 or higher.
- To Win: +3000 FanDuel
- Top 30: -105 DraftKings
Stephan Jaeger
You can make the case that Stephan Jaeger has one of the most impressive wins on Tour this season. He went toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler during the final round of the Houston Children’s Open, and he came out on top. He has two other top-three finishes on Tour this season, at Torrey Pines and the Mexico Open, two driver-heavy tracks off the tee with little-to-no penalty for a wayward drive. We’re looking at more of the same in Detroit.
Jaeger’s irons have been heating up after a rough patch. He’s gained 0.87 strokes per round on approach at last week’s wedge fest in Connecticut and gained 0.67 per round the week prior at the U.S. Open. The concern for Jaeger is whether he can hole enough putts to contend. He’s a streaky putter, and the current streak has to be classified as cold, but that was the case prior to his strong showings in Mexico and Houston, where he gained 1.6 strokes per round on the greens.
In a weak field, Jaeger stands out as a legit threat to win, and at nearly 2/1 to top 20 and plus money to top 30, he’s one of my favorite looks on this week’s board.
- To Win : 33/1 FanDuel
- Top 30: +105 DraftKings
Taylor Pendrith
You can make a strong case that this is the best golf of Taylor Pendrith’s career. The big-hitting Canuck won his first PGA Tour event in May’s bomb-and-gauge birdie fest at TPC Craig Ranch, and the good play has continued, with five T25 or better finishes in his six starts since the win.
Every part of his game has been more consistent, and his putter has turned into a real weapon. Pendrith has gained strokes putting in 16 of his 18 starts this season, and lately, he’s been gaining nearly a full stroke per round. On the season, Pendrith has gained strokes on the greens in 75% of his rounds played, the highest rate in this week’s field.
Pendrith has teed it up in Detroit in each of the past two years, finishing T2 and T14, but he comes to this year’s event in significantly better form than ever before. If I’m only making one bet this week, it’s Pendrith at +125 to finish inside the top 30.
- To Win : 50/1 FanDuel
- Top 30: +125 DraftKings
Ryan Fox
Outside of the elite golfers, I’ll typically consider backing someone if they’re either a strong course fit or trending well form-wise. In most instances, I’m looking for golfers who check both boxes. Some golfers are what I’d consider to be ‘form’ golfers, meaning they’re worth consideration regardless of the course fit because they tend to string together solid outings when they’re in the midst of one of their bursts of strong play. Ryan Fox is the poster boy for this.
If you look at Ryan Fox’s career results, both on the DP World Tour and in his short time on the PGA, he tends to play well for multiple starts in a row. He finished T56 last time out at the U.S. Open, but before that, Fox had three T7 or better finishes in his previous six starts. Detroit Golf Club checks multiple boxes for Fox because he drives it a mile, and he’s an elite putter. He’s 10th in this week’s field in driving distance on the season, and he’s flashed some serious putting chops this season, which is a prerequisite for success this week.
I’m hoping we can still catch the tail-end of his strong current run, and I like his price north of 50/1.
- To Win: 55/1 DraftKings
- Top 40: -115 DraftKings
Michael Thorbjornsen
The newest young phenom to turn pro is Michael Thorbjornsen, and the sooner you get on board, the better. He just turned pro last week prior to teeing it up at The Travelers after finishing at the top of the PGA Tour U rankings for the 2024 season. The 22-year-old Stanford alum has a decorated amateur record, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts adding professional hardware as well.
He qualified for the 2019 U.S. Open as a 17-year-old and made the cut. He also finished T4 at the 2022 Travelers Championship, his best PGA Tour finish during his exceptional run of junior golf. Like last year’s top PGA Tour U grad, Ludvig Aberg, “Thor” hits it a mile and has massive upside if he continues to work hard as a pro. I’m willing to pay the price early and see how it plays out.
- To Win: 70/1 FanDuel
- Top 40: -120 DraftKings
