2022 PGA Championship Betting Card Preview
Ryan Noonan
4 years ago
We’re in for a treat this weekend, folks. Southern Hills Country Club, the host of the 104th PGA Championship is a spectacular golf course. The recent renovations to this sprawling landscape, highlighted by the guys at TheFriedEgg.com, are vast. Most of the natural creeks were restored, the tree-lined fairways were opened up, and no change will be as impactful as the restorations around the green. Gone are the rough collars designed to slow down any approach shot rolling off these small bentgrass greens. The rough has been replaced with short grass with false edges that move away from the center of the green, resembling Augusta National more than your traditional parkland-style PGA Championship course. For more details on the course, check out Ron’s course preview.
If you’re into #trendz, we have a few that I think are worth looking into this week. Of course, an all-around game where a golfer gains strokes throughout the bag supersedes all trends, but they’re noteworthy nonetheless.
- Seven of the previous 10 winners had already bagged a win that season.
- Eight of the last 10 champions finished inside the top 20 in their start before the PGA Championship.
- Eight of the previous 10 champs had appeared in five or fewer PGA Championships.
- Nine of the last 10 winners had a T20 or better at the PGA Championship on their resume their win.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Wells Fargo Championship Targets
Justin Thomas
Over the past 50 rounds, only two players rank inside the top 10 in both strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG) and strokes gained approach (SG: APP): Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas. Over that same time frame, Thomas leads this field in strokes gained tee-to-green (SG: T2G), and his 2.31 strokes gained per round is the best rate of his illustrious career. He has the complete game needed to win this week, and FanDuel generously floated a 19/1 on his on Monday afternoon, a number way too good to pass up on. If I could only pick one winner this week, I’m going with JT.
Patrick Cantlay
After struggling at The Genesis (T33), The PLAYERS (MC), Match Play (T26), and The Masters (T39), the defending FedEx Cup Champion has found his form. In this case, struggling is a relative term, but fighting for T40 placements is unusual for one of the world’s top-ranked golfers. Cantlay comes to Southern Hills on the back of a dominant ball-striking clinic at Harbour Town, gaining nearly nine strokes on approach on his way to finishing solo-second to Jordan Spieth. He carried that over the following week, teaming up for the win at the Zurich with Xander Schauffele. Cantlay ranks second in this field in total strokes gained per round over the past 50 rounds, ranking inside the top 20 in every strokes-gained metric. I love the form he’s bringing into the week, and the price is right.
Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama showed up to last week’s Byron Nelson and quieted any lingering concerns surrounding his health. Deki’s final round 62 wasn’t enough to win, but his T3 finish and world-class ball-striking were on full display. As I mentioned at the top, I believe the redesign here brings a resemblance to Augusta National that’s worthy of our attention. Matsuyama’s a gifted iron player, ranking second on Tour in proximity on approaches over 200 yards, and is a short game maven, well-versed at handling approach shots that run off or fall victim to the impending false fronts of Southern Hills. Momentum is a fickle lover, but Deki carries some with him to Oklahoma this week.
Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris, or as I refer to him, crying alone after he doesn’t win again, “Good Aaron Wise.” Look, Willy Z let us down last week. He missed the cut by one shot, his first MC since early November 2021, but he was dialed in, per usual, on approach. Nevertheless, I’m confident in his long-term profile, and his MC saved us from having to bet him at 25/1. He’s fifth in this field in SG: APP and fourth in SG: T2G over the past 50 rounds, and he’s played his best golf on long, challenging courses so far in his career. He’s played in six majors since turning pro in 2020 and has finished inside the top 10 four times. Yes, bagging your first career win at a major is quite the ask, but Zalatoris is inevitable.
- Win: 38/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +140 BetMGM
Cameron Young
At this time last year, Cameron Young was 496th on the Official World Golf Rankings list, and 12 months later, I’m confidently betting on him to play well at the PGA Championship. Only golf, folks. He leads the Tour in average distance to the hole after a tee shot, a sneaky combination of distance and proximity. He’ll tee it up this week at Southern Hills on the heels of back-to-back strong finishes at the RBC Heritage (T3) and Wells Fargo (T2). Young also has top 20 finishes at the Genesis, Farmers, Honda Classic, and API this season. Those are big boy courses and fields where you need to gain strokes up and down the bag to compete.
Keegan Bradley
I know that Keegan isn’t for everyone, but I feel confident in his statistical profile and how it gels with what I expect a winning golfer will look like this week. Bradley has three straight T8 or better finishes and ranks inside the top 20 in SG: ARG, SG: APP, and SG: BS over his past 50 rounds. Putting has always been his bugaboo, but he’s been an above-average putter on the season, gaining 0.09 strokes per round, and historically, bentgrass is his best putting surface. So when thinking about the PGA Championship and what it typically demands from a contender, I think long and straight, and Keegan Bradley checks that box.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Scottie Scheffler/Jordan Spieth/Brooks Koepka T40 (+196)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is three T40s like this one is, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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Featured Image: Gregory Shamus – Getty Images