2022 Masters Player Guide
Ryan Noonan
4 years ago
There’s nothing else in the world of sports quite like The Masters. For most, it signals the beginning of spring. The tight shots of the azaleas in bloom, the piano playing that ditty that we’re so accustomed to as the coverage goes in and out of commercial breaks. Jim Nantz whispering sweet nothings to us as he sends us to Amen Corner for an update. The tree-lined shots of Magnolia Lane leading to the clubhouse.
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Full transparency, I’m a sucker for all of it. Like most, I’ve never had the opportunity to attend The Masters, but it’s as close to the top of the bucket list as anything can get for me. By all accounts, time stops when you’re on the grounds at Augusta National. No cell phones. No overpriced vendors. Even the schmucks that yell ‘get in the hole!’ after every tee shot seem to understand that this place is different.
One of the unique quirks about this tournament is the field and how it comes to be. Andy took a look at how everyone teeing it up for the 86th edition of The Masters qualified for this year’s event. As of this writing, we’re looking at 91 competitors representing 20 different countries, competing for one green jacket and the lifetime invitation to come back that comes with it. It’s an exclusive club, with just 53 members to date, 18 of which will be taking part in this year’s tournament. And yes, that includes Tiger Woods.
I could wax poetic about the “tradition unlike any other”, but let’s get to the goods.
Below is a list of this year’s participants, along with their Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), notes on their history at Augusta, and a quick nugget regarding their recent form.
Aaron Jarvis (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes (2021-2019): debutant
The 19-year-old UNLV freshman won the 2022 Latin American Amateur Championship and will become the first competitor from the Cayman Islands to compete in the Masters. His LAAC win also gains him entry into July’s Open Championship.
Abraham Ancer
Current OWGR: 16th
Best Finish At The Masters: 13 (2020)
Last 3 Masters Finishes (2021-2019): 26, 13, -,
After a strong showing at the WGC Match Play event, Abraham Ancer bowed out of his hometown Valero Texas Open this week. No reason was initially given for his withdrawal, but advancing in Austin’s Match Play event can be taxing, especially with The Masters on deck shortly after. Over the past three months, Ancer is more than 0.5 strokes per round behind his 2021 seasonal rates. Relative to 2021, Ancer is losing strokes across all four strokes-gained metrics.
Adam Scott
Current OWGR: 36th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2013)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 54, 34, 18
The 41-year-old Aussie and 2013 champion has booked four top-10 finishes in his first seven starts to kick off the 2022 season, including a nice performance in his last start in Austin. He’s not the elite off-the-tee (OTT) machine that he was back in 2013, but he remains a threat due to his exceptional approach game and newfound putting wizardry. This isn’t your slightly older uncle’s Adam Scott. I expect him to contend.
Austin Greaser (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Austin Greaser, the North Carolina Tar Heels’ all-time leader in stroke average, punched his ticket here with a second-place finish at the 2021 U.S. Amateur at Oakmont Country Club. The 21-year-old, who ranks 22nd nationally among amateurs, holed a 168-yard hole-in-one at Olympia Fields in September to register his first career win, propelling the Tar Heels to victory as well. As is the case with any amateur, a weekend appearance should be considered a win.
Bernhard Langer
Current OWGR: 1217
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1985)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 29, 62
Of all the past Masters’ champions that still play regularly on the Champions Tour, Bernhard Langer is still the belle of the ball. He competes and wins regularly, including a win back in February at The Chubb Classic. The 57-year-old German won’t factor in this week, but don’t be surprised to see him hanging around on the weekend.
Billy Horschel
Current OWGR: 13th
Best Finish At The Masters: 17 (2016)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 50, 38, 56
At 35, Billy Horschel is playing the best golf of his life, highlighted by a career-high 13th-place ranking in the OWGR. His game is as equipped as it ever has been to compete here, and his putter can run white-hot, but his overall lack of distance off the tee and middling approach numbers will likely have me looking elsewhere when rounding out my betting card. Looking at the OWGR’s top 150 over the past three months, Horschel comes in at 91st in strokes-gained approach (SG: APP) and 60th in strokes-gained ball-striking (SG: BS).
Brian Harman
Current OWGR:: 51st
Best Finish At The Masters: 12 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 12, -, –
Brian Harman entered the 2021 edition of The Masters in exceptional form, finishing 12th after his T3 at The PLAYERS and an elite eight showing at the WGC Match Play the two weeks prior. Harman’s 2022 pre-Masters form isn’t quite as sharp as it was in 2021, but he added the Valspar to his schedule this season, finishing T5 just two weeks ago. Consistently overlooked due to his stature and lack of distance off the tee, Harman is an intriguing wildcard this week, at a venue that’s historically favored southpaws.
Brooks Koepka
Current OWGR: 19th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 7, 2
The recent version of Brooks Koepka, mixing in missed cuts with top-five and top-20 finishes, doesn’t feel like the same guy who walked into every 2019 Major like he was in the club and about to poach your girl off your arm. But I’d argue that he’s closer to that guy than his 2022 stats will show you. Koepka played all of 2020 and most of 2021 at less than 100%. Injuries to both knees, along with swing-altering ailments to his hip and wrist, brought on numerous withdrawals and missed cuts over the past two seasons.
As we saw last week during the WGC Match Play- where Koepka defeated Jon Rahm in the Round of 16- when the moment is big, and the stakes are high, Brooks is still that guy. He’s tasted the weekend smoke this season in Phoenix, finishing T3, and strong fourth-round showings at The Honda Classic and Valspar placed him inside the top-16 both weeks. I’d be surprised if he’s not a factor for his first green jacket this weekend.
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Bryson DeChambeau
Current OWGR: 14th
Best Finish At The Masters: 21 (2016)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 46, 34, 29
Bryson DeChambeau returned to action at last week’s WGC Match Play after missing several weeks due to hand and hip issues that had been causing him pain and impacting his swing. He’s also competing in the Valero Texas Open this week but has stated he’s not ready to “let loose” until he gets to Augusta. Letting loose at Augusta has not served him well in the past.
After a regrettable comment before the 2020 November edition of this event, where DeChambeau stated that the par for him on this course was 67 and not 72, his Masters’ disappointments continued with a 34th-placed showing. In fact, in five career starts at Augusta, DeChambeau has yet to finish inside the top 20, with his best finish coming back in his old body in 2016. The lack of green-reading books at Augusta was often cited as a reason for Bryson’s struggles, but in order to compete, he’ll need to be crisper tee-to-green than his limited 2022 starts have shown thus far. I’d want to see a strong showing in San Antonio before backing Bryson at Augusta.
Bubba Watson
Current OWGR: 66th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2012 & 2014)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 26, 57, 12
The two-time Masters champion has had an uneven start to the 2022 season. He started off the year with a solo second-place in Saudi and followed it up with a classic Bubba ball-striking masterclass in Phoenix, where a cold putter kept him out of the top 10. The putting issues have continued to be a problem, but Watson has lost strokes putting in nine of the past 13 seasons so this is nothing new. His shot-shaping prowess is unmatched on Tour and will continue to keep him competitive at a place he knows and loves.
Cameron Champ
Current OWGR: 127th
Best Finish At The Masters: 19 (2020)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 26, 19, –
Cameron Champ has four missed cuts in seven 2022 starts, with a season-best finish of T46 at the Farmers back in January. Not great, Bob. He has yet to ascend from the bomber-only moniker that he established as an amateur, but he seems to be comfortable on the grounds at Augusta National. Two trips and two top-30 finishes for Champ definitely catch my attention, but an eight-round sample of middling success at Augusta isn’t enough to outweigh his overall body of work.
Cameron Davis
Current OWGR: 95th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Expectations are low for most debutants at Augusta, and Cam Davis’s current form should keep them even lower. The young Aussie has missed three of his past four cuts, sprinkling in a T48 at The Genesis to break up the cold streak. We’ve seen Australians fare well here in the past though, with Augusta’s Bentgrass greens a familiar putting surface. According to Ron’s putting splits article, no golfer in the field sees a bigger Bentgrass bump than Cameron Davis, who’s 0.6 strokes per round better on Bent than his baseline putting splits on other surfaces.
Cameron Smith
Current OWGR: 6th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2020)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 10, 2, 51
Cam Smith is the hottest player in the world not named Scottie Scheffler. His ascension from a short game specialist to one of the world’s premier iron players is at the heart of Smith’s meteoric rise, and why he’s sitting near the top of the odds board heading into this year’s Masters. We haven’t seen Smith since his PLAYERS win in mid-March, so he’ll come in fresh and ready to contend. Kudos to you if you were wise enough to back him as an outright earlier in the year when his number was north of 30. With his blend of current form and past success here, it’s hard to imagine him not being on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Cameron Young
Current OWGR: 47th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Cameron Young is an ascending talent who’s put together an excellent run of play to kick off the 2022 season. His T2 against a loaded field at Riviera back in February was impressive and was followed up by back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Honda and API. The driver is a weapon for Young, which should play nicely here at the recently lengthened 7,510-yard track. His former Wake Forest teammate, Will Zalatoris, found some success here in his debut last season, and perhaps Young can do the same.
Charl Schwartzel
Current OWGR: 171st
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2011)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 26, 25, MC
The surprise winner of the 2011 Masters comes back to Augusta in perhaps the worst form of his career. Schwartzel has played in six PGA Tour events this year, missing the cut in each of them. His tee-to-green game is a mess right now, but he was in poor form heading into last year’s event as well and he finished T26. Proof that familiarity in navigating your way around here matters more than at most other venues on Tour.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Current OWGR: 61st
Best Finish At The Masters: 38 (2020)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 40, 38, –
The South African’s lack of distance off the tee has not been a huge hindrance in his first two trips to Augusta, though I believe his game lacks the upside to compete annually at this event. He’s fallen back to a field-average putter in 2022 after four straight years of gaining more than 0.5 per round on the greens. A repeat performance of his first two trips here is well within his range of potential outcomes, but I wouldn’t anticipate much more.
Collin Morikawa
Current OWGR: 3rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 18 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 18, 44, –
The #3 ranked player in the world is a threat to win any time that he tees it up. Morikawa’s current form, especially on approach shots, isn’t quite what it’s been throughout the early years of his career, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. Zoom out, and this is arguably the premier tee-to-green player in the world. He’s stated recently that he’s forced a draw when playing here the past two seasons, regretfully straying away from his more comfortable fade, and leading to pre-shot thoughts and routines that had him overthinking while standing over the ball. I feel confident adding Morikawa to my betting card this week after watching him in Austin at the WGC Match Play event, and an above-average week on the greens will end with a green jacket.
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Corey Conners
Current OWGR: 32nd
Best Finish At The Masters: 8 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 8, 10, 46
Corey Conners is continuing his solid recent play this week in San Antonio after a third-place finish in Austin. That’s four consecutive made cuts for the 30-year-old Canuck, who’s finished inside the top 10 at Augusta in back-to-back trips. Conners short game improvements are noteworthy considering his baseline ball-striking prowess is rounding into form. With just one career win on his resume, I’d be surprised if this became his second, but there’s no reason to expect him to stumble here given his recent form.
Daniel Berger
Current OWGR: 22nd
Best Finish At The Masters: 10 (2016)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, -, –
Daniel Berger posted a T10 here in his debut back in 2016 but has not found his footing here since. Despite that, I expect Berger to play well and his current outright price at 50/1 is very tempting. He’s made strides with his short game this season, patching up any potential weakness in his game, and he comes to Augusta gaining over 0.4 strokes per round in each of the four strokes-gained metrics. His accuracy off the tee should allow him advantageous second-shot looks into these small, bentgrass greens.
Danny Willett
Current OWGR: 158th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2016)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 25, MC
The stunning 2016 Masters champion won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the Euro Tour back in October and that win may be just as shocking as his Masters’ victory. Outside of Alfred Dunhill, Willet hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in any worldwide event since the 2021 Corales, over a full year ago. He’s a non-factor, but I hope he enjoys the Champions Dinner on Tuesday night.
Dustin Johnson
Current OWGR: 8th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2020)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 1, 2
Similar to Danny Willet, Dustin Johnson will also be at the Tuesday night Champion’s Dinner, but that’s where the Willett/DJ parallels end. With two top-10 finishes in his last three starts, including a trip to the WGC Match Play final four last time out, Dustin Johnson heads back to Augusta in terrific form and a bit under the radar. His tee-to-green game is still among the best in the world, as he ranks eighth in SG: BS over the past six months. His around the green stats have dipped this year, but they’re skewed by an outlier performance at The Genesis that I’m comfortable ignoring.
The pressure and attention that follows you as the defending champion are gone, and the Tour has lots of shiny new objects, and perhaps one shiny older object (Tiger) who will help keep the pre-tournament spotlight off of the 2020 champion. Wheels up on, DJ this week.
Erik Van Rooyen
Current OWGR: 60th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, WD, –
After exiting the 2020 Masters after one round due to injury, the mustachioed South African will put his joggers on and tee it up again in 2022. EVR has yet to put together a solid four rounds of golf yet this season, mixing in low rounds like his second-round 65 at Riviera with a 74 on Sunday when the lights were bright. He was swept 0-3 at the WGC Match Play last time out.
Francesco Molinari
Current OWGR: 180th
Best Finish At The Masters: 5 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 52, MC, 5
Without Francesco Molinari’s fourth-round water ball on the 12th hole back in 2019, we may not have been privy to one of the coolest sports moments of all time, so for that, I’m eternally grateful. This version of Molinari is quite different than the 2019 iteration that was contending each time out. He moved out to California, joined #TeamSmellTheRoses, and occasionally plays golf to sustain his lifestyle. Good for him. No judgment here, but he won’t be a factor this week.
Fred Couples
Current OWGR: 1704
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1992)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, MC
There was a five-year stretch in the early 2010s where Fred Couples showed that he could still compete even though he was 20 years removed from his 1992 Masters win. It appears that the window is fully closed though, with three straight Thursday-Friday trips to Augusta for Freddie Boom Boom. He’s a tremendous ambassador for the game and has lots of useful nuggets to share with the new faces making their way around here for the first time, but that’s where the good news ends.
Garrick Higgo
Current OWGR: 82nd
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Perhaps the left-handed Higgo will find a bit of last season’s magic while making his debut, but the recent results are not encouraging. A missed cut at the Valero makes it three in a row for Higgo, and there doesn’t appear to be a singular fix to his recent woes. Last season’s putting performance seems like an outlier, and he’s inconsistent tee-to-green. As a talented 22-year-old debutant whose game is out of sorts right now, I’m confident in saying that Garrick Higgo will have better days at Augusta than his 2022 trip.
Gary Woodland
Current OWGR: 92nd
Best Finish At The Masters: 24 (2011)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 40, MC, 32
I was surprised to see Gary Woodland ranks just 92nd (heading into the Valero) in the Official World Golf Rankings. We know it’s a flawed system, but Woodland is likely being penalized for his poor play through his injuries in 2020 and 2021. The current version of the Kansas alum is firing on all cylinders. He’s playing well in San Antonio and had a strong Florida swing which included back-to-back top-five finishes at the Honda and API. He’s had a mixed history at Augusta and doesn’t have a top-20 finish to his name in nine career starts, but a finishing position bet is worth considering based on his current form.
Guido Migliozzi
Current OWGR: 122nd
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
There will be better days, and better seasons, for Guido Migliozzi. After missing the cut at the Valero, Migliozzi has now failed to find the weekend in seven of his last eight starts, most of them in Europe. Coming stateside and missing the cut again in a week field is not encouraging.
Harold Varner III
Current OWGR: 40th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Harold Varner III is playing the best golf of his career right now and started his season off nicely with a win in Saudi back in January, his first since the Australian PGA back in December of 2016. Varner skipped the Valero after a strong performance in Austin and is one of the older debutants in this year’s field. I’m not sure there’s enough upside to make a splash in this field.
Harry Higgs
Current OWGR: 157th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Harry Higgs sandwiched missed cuts at the Byron Nelson and Charles Schwab around an unlikely T4 finish at Kiawah Island during the 2021 PGA Championship. That performance punched a Masters invite for the fun-loving Higgs. Two rounds on the weekend are the best-case scenario here.
Hideki Matsuyama
Current OWGR: 12th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 1, 13, 32
Unfortunately, the defending champion is coming back to the scene of his greatest triumph at less than full strength. After a last-minute withdrawal from The PLAYERS, Matsuyama took a few weeks off to deal with neck and back issues in hopes of getting right for his return to Augusta. Those issues reared their ugly head again in San Antonio, forcing Matsuyama to withdraw again before completing his second round at Valero. This is obviously a wet blanket on Matsuyama’s chances to repeat. I’ll be plugged into any news regarding his status, but the 2021 champ seems like an easy 2022 fade.
Hudson Swafford
Current OWGR: 77th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, -, –
Hudson Swafford was happy to leave Florida after missing the cut three straight weeks. He’s here off of a January win at the AmEx’s PGA West, and he made the cut this week in San Antonio, a strong corollary course to PGA West. So at least he has that going for him. Which is nice. He’ll be a non-factor this week. The good news is he’ll be featured in Chris Vernon’s song again, so we all win.
James Piot (A)
Current OWGR:
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
James Piot, a fifth-year senior at Michigan State, won the 2021 U.S. Amateur last summer at Oakmont Country Club, defeating fellow 2022 Masters debutant, Austin Greaser. Competing for Low Amateur with Greaser and the other first-timers is a game within the game. Weekend golf should be considered a success.
Jason Kokrak
Current OWGR: 28th
Best Finish At The Masters: 49 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 49, MC, –
Kokrak won the swing season’s Houston Open in November but has been rather quiet since the calendar change. Perhaps the not-so-subtle whispers about Kokrak flirting with the new startup league have been an off-the-course distraction, but Kok has been a non-factor on Sundays. He’s not on my radar this week.
Joaquin Niemann
Current OWGR: 20th
Best Finish At The Masters: 40 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 40, -, –
Joaquin Niemann played the best golf of his life in February, with top-10 finishes at the Farmers and in Saudi, followed by a masterful performance, winning in Los Angeles at The Genesis. I think he’ll be overlooked this week, but dominating that loaded field at Riviera shouldn’t be taken lightly. I’m buying his improvements around the green, and that raises his weekly floor. He’s also fourth in this field in SG: BS over the past three months. He’ll be on my card in a yet-to-be-determined manner.
Jon Rahm
Current OWGR: 2nd
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2018)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 5, 7, 9
This is setting up to be a perfect situation for Jon Rahm. There’s a new World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who’ll garner all sorts of attention this week due to his recent heater. Also, all signs point to Tiger Woods teeing it up this week as well and the Tiger media tornado will be a reprieve for Rahm and his peers.
He’s not broken, people. Rahm leads this field in SG: BS over the past three, six, and 12-month periods. His short game is struggling, losing strokes on and around the green this season after gaining between 0.4 and 1.02 per round since turning pro. Rahm is the best player in the world, and a win this week would remind folks before they had time to forget.
Jordan Spieth
Current OWGR: 17th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2015)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 3, 46, 21
After a couple of disappointing Masters, Jordan Spieth came to Augusta last year on the back of a win at the 2021 Valero Texas Open and two months of excellent golf. His 2022 form isn’t in the same ballpark, but I’m not sure that matters for Spieth inside these ropes. Spieth has finished inside the top-3 here in five of his eight starts, an incredible showing on the world’s premier stage. He needed to make a splash in San Antonio to move up in the market, but he’ll catch steam and the 18’s and 20’s available in the marketplace will dry up quickly.
Jose Maria Olazabal
Current OWGR: 1274
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1994 & 1999)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 50, MC, MC
The two-time Masters champion out of Spain has been kicking it around on the Champions Tour a bit, but not well. Last year’s stunning T50 here was his first made cut at the event since 2014, and I’m willing to bet on a new missed cut streak beginning in 2022. But it’ll be cool that he’s there if fellow countryman Jon Rahm wins.
J.J. Spaun
Current OWGR: 242nd
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Fresh off of his first career PGA Tour victory at the Valero Texas Open, J.J. Spaun punched himself a ticket to Augusta this week. There was nothing fluky about Spaun’s win. He was trending up heading into the event on the back of his improved ball-striking, and he won with a balanced performance, gaining across the board on his way to a two-shot victory. Expectations should be low, but weekend golf should be considered a win.
Justin Rose
Current OWGR: 56th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2017)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 7, 23, MC
Justin Rose had an eight-year span where he finished inside the top-20 for at least 53% of that season’s starts, peaking at 79% in 2018 as he moved to World No. 1. After 10 2022 starts, this season is trending towards being his third straight season of finishing inside the top-20 in less than 35% of his starts. There’s still competitive golf left to be played for Justin Rose, but what’s the ceiling? His recent ball-striking numbers indicate that’s it’s pretty low but his pre-tournament form in 2021 wasn’t great either and he finished inside the top-10. Rose won’t be on my card this week, but I won’t be targeting matchups against him either.
Justin Thomas
Current OWGR: 7th
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2020)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 21, 4, 12
The results don’t show it, but Justin Thomas has played exceptionally well this season. He’s found himself chasing on the weekend, but he’s turned the heat up on the leaders at multiple stops this season, and his bogey-free 69 in Round 2 at The PLAYERS was a feat that deserves the utmost praise considering the conditions.
He’s been vocal about his disappointing execution during past Masters, though five straight top-22 or better performances are difficult to scoff at. Clearly, this is one of the world’s best, as Thomas ranks second in total strokes gained per round over the past six months. But he’s not coming here for T20s, he wants the jacket. Similar to Collin Morikawa, when JT has a field-average or better week on the greens, it’ll take a lot to beat him.
Keita Nakajima (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Keita Nakajima is the top-ranked amateur in the world. Nakajima earned his way here with a win at the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championships, and already has a professional win to his name on the Japan Tour in 2021. His PGA Tour debut was a success as well, finishing T28 at the Zozo in October. Similar to his amateur peers, weekend golf at your first Masters should be considered a win.
Kevin Kisner
Current OWGR: 27th
Best Finish At The Masters: 21 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, 21
Kevin Kisner can grind you down in match play formats, hitting fairways and greens over and over again, and his place as one of the best putters on the planet is undeniable. But Kiz isn’t built for Augusta. Out of the world’s top 150, Kisner ranks 118th in ball-striking over the past six months. He’s below field average in both SG: APP and SG: OTT, and it’s really difficult to compete here if that’s not a staple of your game. Despite his recent results, a repeat of the T21 he posted here back in 2019 would be an accomplishment.
K.H. Lee
Current OWGR:
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
K.H. Lee’s win at May’s Byron Nelson came out of nowhere. He’s a rollercoaster of results, though outside of the Byron Nelson win the coaster doesn’t go very high. He missed the cut at The Valero, finishing with a +8, but had made 11-straight cuts prior, with his best 2022 finish coming at Riviera where he finished T26. There’s just not enough upside for Lee and his inconsistent approach play.
Laird Shepherd (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Laird Shepherd’s win at the 2021 British Amateur Championship earned him a Masters invite and an appearance at last year’s Open Championship at Royal St. George, where he almost made the cut. He’s one of the oldest amateurs in this year’s field at 24, and he’s lucky enough to call St. Andrews home. Making the cut here would be quite the feat.
Larry Mize
Current OWGR: 1704
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1987)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, MC
Larry Mize made the cut in back-to-back years in 2016 and 2017 but has failed to make the weekend in 15 of the past 20 seasons. The 1987 champ keeps coming back though, and I’d sure as hell do the same thing if I won this thing. It’s one of the coolest perks, a lifetime invite, and I’d make them wheel my ass out, walker and all if I had to. Good for you, Larry.
Lee Westwood
Current OWGR: 60th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2016)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 38, –
We’ve seen some good golf at times from Lee Westwood over the past 14 months, but we’re far removed from peak Westwood in the early 2010s. There was a stretch of seven Masters where Westwood finished inside the top 10 in five years, an impressive feat though he was never able to close. His recent form has wavered though, he missed the cut at The Valero, and while his familiarity will help him get around here, it’s not enough to overcome how he’s playing, especially on and around the greens.
Louis Oosthuizen
Current OWGR: 15th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2012)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 26, 23, 29
Over the years, we’ve seen stretches where Louis Oosthuizen gets white-hot, but nothing quite like his 2021 run of play. It’s stunning to look back and wonder how he didn’t win any events, but he was on the first page of the leaderboard nearly every week from April to September. Currently, Louis is not that guy. He’s yet to truly contend in 2022, with no top-10 finishes on the season, and only one top-20 since October. He’s been a cut-maker here, with eight straight in the bag, but outside of his 2012 runner-up finish, he hasn’t been in the mix on Sundays. Out of the top 150 in the world, Louis ranks 113th in SG: APP over the past six months. That’s not going to get it done.
Lucas Glover
Current OWGR: 101st
Best Finish At The Masters: 20 (2007)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, MC, –
Lucas Glover played well in San Antonio, finishing T18, and will be looking to bottle that form as he heads to Augusta for the ninth time in his career. He’s been really poor on and around the greens this season, and his lack of distance shines a light on those struggles on long tracks like Augusta. A nice week at The Valero is something to build off of moving forward, but it doesn’t correlate with success inside the ropes at the Masters.
Lucas Herbert
Current OWGR: 44th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
After making the majority of his starts in Europe over the past few years, the 26-year-old Aussie has played more in the states in 2022 and has flashed of late. Herbert’s wizardry around the green propelled him to a T7 at API, and he advanced out of the group stage at last week’s WGC Match Play, knocking off Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau. His ball-striking isn’t good enough to truly compete here right now, and I rarely back someone who’s so dependant on his short game to get it done.
Luke List
Current OWGR: 58th
Best Finish At The Masters: 33 (2005)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, -, –
Luke List is the captain of Team No Putt. His tee-to-green game is in the upper echelon on Tour right now, but he bleeds strokes on the green in nearly every round. Over the past six months, he ranks in the top 10 in SG: APP, SG: ARG, SG: OTT, and SG: BS. That’s remarkable. Unfortunately, he ranks 148th out of 150 in strokes gained putting. The hopes of List running hot with the putter drop a bit after Ron’s work on bentgrass putting splits that show he’s one of the worst bentgrass putters in the field.
Mackenzie Hughes
Current OWGR: 57th
Best Finish At The Masters: 40 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 40, -, –
Writing up Mac Hughes after the Luke List preview is quite the dichotomy. Hughes is a member of Team Just putt. He’s among the bottom of the pack in terms of ball-striking, but Hughes can run white-hot on the greens and compete if the ball-striking is close to field average. This is not the field or course to back Hughes.
Marc Leishman
Current OWGR: 43rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2013)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 5, 13, 49
Marc Leishman has multiple top-five finishes this season, and multiple top-five finishes in the event over the years, including in 2021. He’s gaining strokes throughout the bag this season and has played his best golf on the longest tracks against the deepest fields this season, with a T16 at The Farmers and T15 at The Genesis. He’s a viable look deep down the board, both in the finishing position market and matchups.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Current OWGR: 24th
Best Finish At The Masters: 7 (2016)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 34, 46, 21
Matthew Fitzpatrick has one of the best short game’s in the world, but the strides he’s made with approach shots are the key to his 2022 improvements. Outside of his unusually poor putting performance at Sawgrass, leading to a missed cut, Fitzpatrick has been in the mix in each 2022 start. He’s finished T18 or better on the back of an approach game that’s nearly 0.7 strokes per round better than his 2021 performance. He’s merely a field-average putter on bentgrass, which mitigates one of his biggest edges, but his current form will play anywhere.
Matthew Wolff
Current OWGR: 45th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: DQ, MC, –
Early season struggles came to a head at Augusta for Matthew Wolff last year. He was disqualified after the second round for signing an incorrect scorecard, salt in the wound considering he wasn’t anywhere near the cut line. Wolff took the next couple of months off, and we’ve yet to see him regain the form that boosted him all the way to 12th in the OWGR as a 20-year-old. I believe we’ll see elite golf again from Matthew Wolff, but if he’s making an out-of-nowhere splash at a Major, I’d pick the Masters to be the least likely of the four for him to do so.
Max Homa
Current OWGR: 37th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, –
Max Homa has added a level of consistency to his game in 2022. Homa is gaining strokes throughout the bag and has improved on his 2021 performance in each strokes-gained metric. He ranks 23rd in SG: BS over the past six months. He’s still waiting on his first weekend tee time at Augusta and has struggled on bentgrass throughout his career. Perhaps the improvements tee-to-green can lead to a different result.
Mike Weir
Current OWGR: 1271
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2003)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 51, MC
Weir, the left-handed Canuck and 2003 champion, has missed nine of the last 11 cuts here. Weir’s not even landing top-10s on the Champions Tour, so it’s difficult to see a path to him making the cut this week, which is his ceiling.
Min Woo Lee
Current OWGR: 59th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Over the years, the range of potential outcomes for Min Woo Lee on the Euro Tour is vast, but his early returns stateside have shown less upside. He’s missed every cut this season and failed to advance out of the group round in Austin. Now it’s only five events, but his spot in the world rankings is inflated and not a true indicator of where he shakes out in this field.
Padraig Harrington
Current OWGR: 145th
Best Finish At The Masters: 5 ( 2008)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, -, –
The former World No. 1 hasn’t played in the Masters since 2015 and hasn’t made the weekend since 2012. He doesn’t play often these days, but when he does, he still competes. He earned his spot in this year’s tournament with a surprising T4 at Kiawah Island’s PGA Championship, overshadowed by fellow 50-year-old Phil Mickelson’s victory. We saw him twice during the Florida swing, missing the cut at The Honda and then finishing T42 at API. Considering he didn’t have a ton of success here during the peak of his powers, it’s difficult to forecast a strong 2022 showing.
Patrick Cantlay
Current OWGR: 5th
Best Finish At The Masters: 9 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 17, 9
Patrick Cantlay went on an absolute heater to end the 2021 season, taking advantage of Jon Rahm’s bad luck at The Memorial in June and never looking back on his way to the FedEx Cup Championship. The heater continued at the beginning of 2022, but middling iron play over the past two months has taken a bit of shine off of his star heading into this week. The decision to back Cantlay this week comes down to a decision to look at his long-term form and pedigree versus a few less-than-stellar performances leading up to this year’s event. His price in the betting market is less interesting to me than the prospects of rostering an under-owned Cantlay in DFS.
Patrick Reed
Current OWGR: 31st
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2018)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 8, 10, 36
Don’t look now, but Patrick Reed is trending up as he heads back to a place that he loves. The 2018 Masters champion has been completely out of sorts for most of the season, ranking 148th out of the world’s top 150 in SG: BS over the past six months. He turned a corner at The PLAYERS and then showed well in Austin despite losing his WGC Match Play group to Jon Rahm. I understand that cheering for Reed is about as fun as getting a root canal without anesthesia, but it’s hard to argue with his affinity for this event. Similar to Cantlay, this is probably more of a DFS thought than a betting one, but I’ll be looking deeper into Reed as the week approaches, something I didn’t think would be the case back in early March.
Paul Casey
Current OWGR: 25th
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2016)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 26, 38, MC
A bad back limited Paul Casey to just two holes at the WGC Match Play event, though early indications are positive for the Englishman heading into this week’s Masters. The 44-year-old Casey is still one of the world’s best ball-strikers and has fared well in recent Majors, finishing inside the top-20 in five of the past seven. He hasn’t won this event but had a three-year run from 2015 to 2017 where he finished T6, T4, T6. If his back is indeed a non-issue, he’s on my radar this week for a finishing position bet.
Robert MacIntyre
Current OWGR: 73rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 12 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 12, -, –
Robert MacIntyre’s 2021 performance at the Masters only strengthens the adage that Augusta National favors left-handers. The young Scot has been pretty streaky over his career, grouping missed cuts and then top-20 finishes over the past few seasons, mostly in Europe. His ball-striking numbers over the past six months leave a lot to be desired, but he bagged three straight T15 or better finishes in February before an uneventful showing at the Match Play.
Rory McIlroy
Current OWGR: 9th
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2015)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 5, 21
You may have heard this before, but a Masters win is the final piece of the career Grand Slam for Rory McIlroy. I know, I was stunned to learn this too. The annual storyline for one of the world’s best golfers should be muted a bit this week given all the other storylines heading into this week, and he certainly lowered expectations by missing the cut in Texas last week.
Personally, I’m ignoring Rory’s Texas performance, though it does shine a light on a bigger issue. McIlroy’s wedge play has been poor this season, impacting his SG: APP numbers and limiting his upside, considering his distance forces him into numerous wedges per round. It was more of the same in San Antonio, and it’s a concern for me heading into Augusta. He loves putting on these bentgrass greens though, and we’re still talking about one of the world’s best players, so I’m not ruling him out.
Russell Henley
Current OWGR: 42nd
Best Finish At The Masters: 11 (2017)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, -, –
Russell Henley hasn’t played in the past three Masters but has fared well here, making the cut in his past four starts. One of the best iron players in the world, Henley is always going to profile well because it’s the stickiest of all skills in the world of golf. He hasn’t missed a cut since July’s Open Championship and has been finished inside the top-20 in four of his six stroke-play starts in 2022. I don’t think he’s a true contender to win, but another top-20 finish is certainly on the table.
Ryan Palmer
Current OWGR: 75th
Best Finish At The Masters: 10 (2011)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 34, -, –
Ryan Palmer showed up in San Antonio ice cold but put himself near the top of the leaderboard after Round 2 before doing his best Luke List putting impression on the weekend. Palmer tumbled down the leaderboard, finishing T48, his best finish since the Farmers in January. If Palmer is able to pick himself up and make the cut at this week’s Masters, that should be considered a win.
Sam Burns
Current OWGR: 11th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Sam Burns is the best debutant in the field this season. He shook off a rough west coast swing with a strong showing in Florida, capped with a victory at The Valspar. He’s had a hiccup at times with his driver this season, but his hot putting performance on Florida’s bermudagrass was no surprise considering he’s earned the nickname Bermuda Burns over the years. He could become a trendy pick, but his inexperience here, combined with his poor bentgrass putting splits, screams caution.
Sandy Lyle
Current OWGR: 1706th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1988)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, MC
If you’re reading the Sandy Lyle writeup, you have to really step back and take a look at yourself in the mirror. Why are you here? Are you just reading this entire thing? First of all, thank you. It’s taken me a very long time to get here. Now, let’s talk about my issues because I looked into Sandy Lyle’s play of late instead of just crossing him off and moving along. Turns out the 64-year-old Lyle, winner of the 1988 edition, has gained strokes in three total rounds since April 15th, 2018. Three rounds. Ok, don’t stop reading now. It gets better down the stretch.
Scottie Scheffler
Current OWGR: 1
Best Finish At The Masters: 18 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 18, 19, –
Scottie Scheffler’s ascension to World No. 1 has been fun to watch. Anyone plugged into the PGA Tour knew that it was only a matter of time before he won on Tour, but winning every other start for the past two months is a bit more than anyone anticipated. Wins at The Waste Management, API, and the WGC Match Play event have propelled Scheffler to the catbird seat heading into the Tour’s premier event. He’s been more clutch than tee-to-green dominant over this five-event run, ranking just 19th in SG: BS over the past three months, which is not what you’d expect when someone runs off three wins and takes over the top spot in the OWGR. Kudos to you if you have a ticket on Scheffler here north of 30/1, but I’m not chasing him at his current price. I could very much regret this paragraph.
Seamus Power
Current OWGR: 41st
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
At this time last year, Seamus Power was 461st in the Official World Golf Rankings. He was playing Korn Ferry Tour events before going on an absolute heater from May to July. Power had a six-event stretch where he finished no worse than T19, with four top-10s, cumulating with a win at The Barbasol in July. The swing season was more of the same, with Power showing that the gains were real and not just a fluky run of elite play. Power played well the last time out at the WGC Match Play, but I’ll let him run around here for his debut without him on my betting card.
Sepp Straka
Current OWGR: 72nd
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Sepp Straka was 199 in the Official World Golf Ranking heading into February’s Honda Classic, but a strange series of events during the fourth round found Straka in a position to take home his first career PGA win and he capitalized. Even in a weak field event, Straka rarely finds his way onto my betting cards. He’s a solid Tour pro but has no distinguishable skill that separates him on a weekly basis, and Augusta isn’t a place I’d expect to see his game shine.
Sergio Garcia
Current OWGR: 50th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2017)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, -, MC
It’s strange that Sergio hasn’t made a cut here since his 2017 win. The struggles feel noisy to me more than anything in his game because he’s still a beast off the tee and his putting has improved greatly, but I’m a little concerned about how Garcia’s hit his irons over the past few months. Since strokes gained data has been around, Sergio Garcia has gained on approach in every year he’s been on Tour. After gaining 0.42 strokes per round in 2021, Garcia is down to -0.02 strokes per round in 2022. When you remove the 2017 victory and look at his career at Augusta before and after winning the green jacket, 2017 feels more like an outlier than an inevitable culmination of someone who’s dominated this event.
Shane Lowry
Current OWGR: 35th
Best Finish At The Masters: 21 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 21, 25, MC
The OWGR will tell you that Shane Lowry is the 35th-best golfer in the world, but show me who these other 34 guys are. I’m not going to make the case for Lowry belonging among the top-10, but 35th is not a true indication of how Lowry is playing right now. Lowry has made six stroke-play starts in 2022, with a T24 in Dubai being his worse finish. Sunday afternoon weather worked against him at the Honda Classic, where he finished second to Sepp Straka, but he continued his hot play at The PLAYERS and Valspar the next two times out. I’m not concerned that he’s yet to find a top-20 finish at Augusta because I believe he’s a better player than he was during his previous six starts here.
Si Woo Kim
Current OWGR: 54th
Best Finish At The Masters: 12 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 12, 34, 21
There’s a lot of volatility to Si Woo Kim’s game, but he’s consistently fared well at Augusta. He’s an elite driver of the golf ball, something that’s vital to success here. His putting performances on a week-to-week basis are not for the faint of heart, but if his recent iron play matches up with a hot putting week, Si Woo can find himself in a similar position to last year’s 12th-place finish.
Stewart Cink
Current OWGR: 71st
Best Finish At The Masters: 3 (2008)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 12, -, MC
Stewart Cink’s 12th-place finish here last year was surprising, and he followed it up with a win the following week at Harbour Town. Cink has been struggling tee-to-green of late but comes in off of a T7 at The Valspar, gaining shots on approach for the first time since the first week of January. The almost-49-year-old Cink hits it further than you think he would at this stage of his career, but I’m leaning on the side of 2021’s performance at Augusta being an outlier instead of a late-career renaissance.
Stewart Hagestad (A)
Current OWGR:
Best Finish At The Masters: T36 (2017)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, -, –
Stewart Hagestad is one of six amateurs in this year’s field, and the only one making his second Tournament appearance. In his first Masters appearance in 2017, Hagestad became the first U.S. Mid-Amateur qualifier to make the cut, finishing T36 and earning Low Amateur honors. Another made cut for the 30-year-old Hagestad will be a tremendous birthday present, as he’ll turn 31 on Sunday.
Sungjae Im
Current OWGR: 26th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2020)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 2, –
Sungjae Im was a popular selection heading into last year’s event after finishing second in his debut, but the further we get away from the November 2020 edition of the event, the more it looks like an outlier compared to the other 80+ years of the event. Im’s made significant strides in his around-the-green game this season, but his approach play has been up and down compared to the rock-solid ball-striking numbers we saw from him early in his career. At this point, Im’s not on my radar this week.
Takumi Kanaya
Current OWGR: 49th
Best Finish At The Masters: 58 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, -, 58
Takumi Kanaya has been a top-10 machine on the Japanese Tour for the past two years, but we’ve seen very little of him against others that rank among the world’s best. He’s not overly long off the tee which can make Masters week difficult, and the limited strokes-gained data that we have on Kanaya doesn’t show an elite iron profile that would help make up for the lack of distance. He played well at the WGC Match Play event, a course where distance is mitigated on nearly every hole, so it’s not a great use case for forecasting success this week.
Talor Gooch
Current OWGR: 33rd
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Talor Gooch rarely gains off the tee, which makes navigating Augusta National challenging, but Gooch is so good from the fairway in that he typically finds himself in contention when the driver is working. Gooch ranks 14th in SG: APP and 12th in SG: ARG over the past six months and his bentgrass splits are better than his career benchmark on other green surfaces. My expectations are low, but a made cut and a top-30 finish would be a nice outcome for Gooch.
Thomas Pieters
Current OWGR: 34th
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2017)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, -, –
Thomas Pieters debuted here back in 2017, his first and only appearance at the Masters, and it went pretty well. A fourth-place finish put Pieters on the map, and he’s won four times on the Euro/DP Tour since his last Masters appearance. The last was a win against a strong field in Abu Dhabi in January, where Pieters displayed his full game. He’s had an uneven run here in the states since the win, but he played well at the WGC Match Play event despite not winning his group and will look to build on that this week. He’ll need to hit his irons better than he did during the Florida swing if he’s going to contend, but he has real upside down the board.
Tiger Woods
Current OWGR: 973
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: -, 38, 1
My body is so ready.
Tom Hoge
Current OWGR: 38th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 3 Masters Finishes: debutant
Elite iron play travels and in my opinion, makes up for a lot of other deficiencies in a player’s game. That’s what brought Tom Hoge here this year. After falling just short of a win at The American Express in January, Hoge closed the deal two weeks later at Pebble Beach, holding off Jordan Spieth on Sunday for his first career PGA Tour win. The elite iron play has continued, but Hoge is inconsistent off the tee and on the greens. That’s a difficult combination here, a place known for its undulating and unique green complexes, which is part of why experience matters so much here.
Tommy Fleetwood
Current OWGR: 46th
Best Finish At The Masters: 17 (2018)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 46, 19, 36
We’re not quite back to the 2019 levels that had Tommy Fleetwood ranked among the top-10 in the world, but he’s starting to round the corner. His approach game is still lagging slightly behind but it’s good enough to compete. The real win comes off the tee, which was at the heart of Fleetwood’s 2021 struggles. His game turned in September when he finished T2 in Italy, but that’s the only time that’s been in contention over the past six months. He could repeat his Florida string of top-25 performances here, but I don’t anticipate CBS showing a lot of Sunday golf from Fleetwood.
Tony Finau
Current OWGR: 23rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 5 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 10, 38, 5
Of the world’s top 150 golfers, Tony Finau ranks 147th in strokes-gained putting over the past six months. Yes, putting is a noisy stat, but this is a large sample of Finau being on the struggle bus. His around the green numbers aren’t much better. Over the past few seasons Finau finishes inside the top-20 in over 50% of his starts, and inside the top five in 20% of starts. In 2022, he’s rotating missed cuts with barely made cuts, finishing inside the top-30 in just two of 12 starts this season, with zero T5’s to his name. He seems to really like it here, so perhaps he builds off of his encouraging final round on Sunday at The Valero, but I don’t think I can back him right now.
Tyrrell Hatton
Current OWGR: 18th
Best Finish At The Masters: 18 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 18, MC, 56
Tyrrell Hatton has seven top-20 finishes in 11 2022 starts, and he’s done it in different ways. He was vocal about his ball-striking struggles at the API even though the numbers don’t back it up, but a white-hot putting performance was at the heart of his Sunday charge and eventual T2 finish. The putter stayed hot for this T13 at The PLAYERS, but it betrayed him at the Valspar, the week his irons came together. He put it all together during group play at the WGC Match Play, sweeping Daniel Berger, Si Woo Kim, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. When it all comes together for him, Hatton is one of the world’s best, and the market isn’t showing us that right now.
Vijay Singh
Current OWGR: 1706th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2000)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, WD, MC
Only the boomers remember, but Vijay Singh was a problem back in the late ’90s and early 2000s. We’re far removed from those days, and Singh is playing sparingly these days on the Champions Tour, so don’t expect his string on Friday exits to end this week.
Viktor Hovland
Current OWGR: 4th
Best Finish At The Masters: 21 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 21, -, 32
Viktor Hovland’s winter was reminiscent of Scottie Scheffler’s spring, with three victories in five starts. Hovland backed it up with two T5’s and a T10 against world-class fields at The Genesis, API, and The PLAYERS. You can make a case that Hovland’s around the green struggles are the only thing standing between him and World No. 1. He ranks second in the field in SG: BS over the past six months, and fourth in total strokes gained per round. Out of the top 150, he’s 149th in SG: ARG. You need to control the ball around the green here so that you don’t leave yourself on the wrong side of the hole. Putting downhill here can be a nightmare at times, and if Hovland is even close to field average, he’ll be on TV all Sunday afternoon.
Webb Simpson
Current OWGR: 39th
Best Finish At The Masters: 5 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 12, 10, 5
After aggravating a neck injury in Hawaii at the Sony Open, Webb Simpson took the next two months off before returning for The Valspar. Opening 67’s heading into the weekend was surprising considering he hadn’t played or even practiced much leading into it, but the weekend 76s and uneven performance in Austin leave a lot of questions around Simpson’s form heading into Masters week. This is a spot that he’s enjoyed over the past three years. I’m tempted to stay away from him pre-tournament, but I’ll be willing to back him live if he gets off to a strong start on Thursday.
Will Zalatoris
Current OWGR: 29th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2021)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 2, -, –
A second-place finish in your Masters’ debut is a hell of a way to make an entrance. Will Zalatoris is the real deal, ranking fourth in SG: APP and SG: BS over the past six months. Experience aside, that level of skill will play anywhere. There’s no secret that Zalatoris’s success comes down to his ability to convert those lawn darts into birdies. I’m encouraged to see him losing fewer and fewer strokes on the green each week, though he’s still net-negative on the year. I’ll continue to be bullish on Zalatoris moving forward, and he’s one of the golfers that I’m backing to win this week.
Xander Schauffele
Current OWGR: 10th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 3, 17, 2
Xander Schauffele is one of the most consistent golfers on the planet. He’s a top-20 machine, and he finishes inside the top five at the same rate that other above-average golfers on Tour finish inside the top-20. His past three starts at the Masters tell a similar story, with subtle errors late on Sunday that’s kept him out of Butler Cabin for the green jacket presentation.
There’s no reason to expect Schauffele to not contend again this year. He’s 10th in the world rankings, ranking 15th in SG: BS over the past six months and has no holes in his game. After being a popular selection in Austin before getting bounced in the group round, Schauffele may go under the radar this week.
Zach Johnson
Current OWGR: 230th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2007)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, 51, 58
America’s next Ryder Cup captain made three straight cuts here before his 2022 missed cut, but the days of him contending in Majors is behind him. Johnson’s ball-striking has fallen off a cliff, and Augusta is not the place to get right.
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