Rory McIlroy 2026 Open Championship: Odds, Royal Birkdale Outlook
BetspertsGolf
a month ago
Rory McIlroy is the second favorite for the 2026 Open Championship at +850, sitting behind only Scottie Scheffler at +550 as the year’s final major heads to Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, from July 16 to 19. McIlroy arrives as the back-to-back Masters champion and a six-time major winner, hunting a second Claret Jug 12 years after his only Open title.
He gets to Birkdale in form, too. McIlroy opened the Genesis Scottish Open with a 5-under 65 to share the first-round lead, a tidy sign that the game is trending the right way one week out from the championship he most wants to add to. Here is where his number sits, what his Open record actually says, and how to read him at a links that suits his profile.
Rory McIlroy 2026 Open Championship odds
McIlroy is priced at +850 to win the 2026 Open, second on the board behind Scheffler and clear of the next tier. That reflects a player who has been to the mountaintop this year, winning a second straight Masters in April to become one of only four men to go back-to-back at Augusta National. When you have that on your resume in the same season, the market is not going to let you drift.
| Player | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +550 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | +1900 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Scheffler and McIlroy are their own tier, and the value hunting really starts below +1400. If you want a piece of Rory, the number is not generous, so the sharper way in is often top-five and top-10 markets, matchups, or a nationality or head-to-head prop rather than the outright.
Can Rory McIlroy win a second Open Championship
He has done it once, and he did it in style. McIlroy won the 2014 Open at Royal Hoylake wire-to-wire, closing out a two-shot win over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia for the third major of his career. That remains his only Claret Jug, and the gap since is the story that follows him to every Open.
What has changed is the weight he is carrying. For years the question was whether McIlroy could win another major at all after a long drought. He answered it emphatically, completing the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters and then defending the green jacket in 2026. A man who has already won twice at Augusta in the space of a year is not short on belief, and that matters at a major where nerve tends to decide it on the back nine Sunday.
How Royal Birkdale sets up for Rory McIlroy
Royal Birkdale plays as a par 70 of roughly 7,150 yards, running through big dunes on the coast north of Liverpool, and it carries a reputation as the fairest test on the Open rota. The fairways are mostly visible off the tee, the bounces are less brutal than at some links, and a player who strikes it well tends to get rewarded rather than robbed. That is a good fit for McIlroy, whose length and iron play are elite when he is dialed in.
The variable, as always, is the wind off the Irish Sea and the driver. When Birkdale bares its teeth in a stiff breeze, control off the tee is everything, and McIlroy’s driver can be both his biggest weapon and his one loose thread. If he keeps it in play and lets the ball-striking do the work, this is a course where he can pull away. Jordan Spieth won the last Open here in 2017, and it rewarded creativity and grit as much as raw power.
Betting and DFS angle
At +850 McIlroy is a fair price rather than a bargain, so treat him as a core piece to build around rather than a value play. In DFS he is a near-automatic lineup anchor given the ceiling he brings at a birdie-friendly links, and the roster math usually comes down to who you pair with him, not whether to play him. For outrights, the recent form is the tell. A player leading the Scottish Open the week before is exactly the profile you want walking into a links major, and if you believe in the ball-striking, top-10 and top-five tickets give you a wider net than a straight win bet.
The model call is to lean on driving accuracy, strokes gained approach, and recent links form, then let the Birkdale wind forecast nudge your weights. McIlroy grades out well on the first two. The third is where you decide how much the tee-shot risk scares you.
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Frequently asked questions
How many majors has Rory McIlroy won
McIlroy has won six majors: the 2011 U.S. Open, the 2012 and 2014 PGA Championships, the 2014 Open Championship, and the Masters in both 2025 and 2026. The 2025 Masters completed his career Grand Slam, and the 2026 Masters made him a back-to-back Augusta winner.
Has Rory McIlroy ever won at Royal Birkdale
No. McIlroy’s lone Open title came at Royal Hoylake in 2014, not Birkdale. The 2026 Open is his chance to add Royal Birkdale to his links resume, and he has never lifted the Claret Jug at this venue before.
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