Andy Molitor
9 hours ago
Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, and Francesco Laporta share the 36-hole lead at the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship at 12 under, with Rory McIlroy one of four players a shot back after a Friday 63. If you’re picking a side, history leans toward the three in front. On the DP World Tour since 2016, a three-way-or-bigger tie for the halfway lead has produced the winner from that group more than half the time.
Of the three, Hatton is the one we’d rather hold. He has turned two of his five DP World Tour halfway leads into wins since 2016. Laporta is 0 for 3 in that spot, and Rahm is 0 for 3 on this tour in our database.
Round two at Yas Links finished Friday with a three-way tie at the top and a pack of four right behind. Hatton shot 65, Rahm 67, and Laporta, who led by three after his opening 62, gave most of that cushion back with a 70.
The table below shows the top of the board after 36 holes, per the final round-two leaderboards from ESPN and RTE on Friday, November 6.

| Position | Player | Round 1 | Round 2 | To par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | Tyrrell Hatton | 67 | 65 | -12 |
| T1 | Jon Rahm | 65 | 67 | -12 |
| T1 | Francesco Laporta | 62 | 70 | -12 |
| T4 | Rory McIlroy | 70 | 63 | -11 |
| T4 | Adrian Meronk | 66 | 67 | -11 |
| T4 | Matthew Jordan | 66 | 67 | -11 |
| T4 | Sam Bairstow | 65 | 68 | -11 |
| T8 | David Puig | 70 | 64 | -10 |
| T8 | Bernd Wiesberger | 65 | 69 | -10 |
Adam Scott sits at 9 under and Tommy Fleetwood at 8 under, so the names are stacked all the way down the first page.
McIlroy made 11 birdies against two bogeys on Friday, Sky Sports and The42 both reported, and Sky noted it was the most birdies he has ever made in a single DP World Tour round. That came a day after a two-shot penalty on the 12th hole, for pressing down the grass behind his ball before a chip, turned his first round into a 70.
Take the penalty away and he’d lead by a shot. He doesn’t, though, and that’s the point. He went from eight back to one back in a day, which is the kind of round that makes everyone want to bet him at whatever price the books hang Saturday morning.
When three or more players shared the 36-hole lead at a completed four-round DP World Tour event from the 2016 season through October 2026, one of the co-leaders won 21 of 39 times, per our DP World Tour database. In those same 39 events, a player starting the weekend one shot back won just 3 times.

Here’s how that breaks down, from the same database, covering 448 completed four-round DP World Tour events, majors included.
| Halfway spot | Events or players | Won | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| One of three or more co-leaders (by event) | 39 events | 21 | 54% |
| One shot back of that group (by event) | 39 events | 3 | 8% |
| Solo leader by exactly one shot (by player) | 164 players | 37 | 23% |
| Any player one shot back (by player) | 504 players | 47 | 9% |
The first two rows are the ones that apply this week. Being one of three tied at the top has been worth a lot more than being one of four a shot behind, even though the gap is a single stroke. A big crowd up front tends to mean somebody from it gets hot.
Our read is that Hatton is the co-leader to back and McIlroy is the name to be careful with at a short number. McIlroy’s 63 was the round of the day, but the market will price the round, and the history says one back with three players ahead of you is a long climb. Laporta, with no DP World Tour win in 195 starts before this week and a 70 on Friday after leading, is the one we’d fade.
If you want to bet into a leaderboard like this mid-event, it helps to know how in-play golf odds move after a round like McIlroy’s. And if you’d rather weight your own numbers than trust ours, how the Rabbit Hole model builder works lays out how to build a ranking from the strokes gained categories you care about. For who has played this course best over the years, see our Yas Links course history breakdown.
Handicap the weekend the way we do, on us. First-time depositors at ReBet using code BSG get a free Betsperts Golf subscription plus a 100 percent match up to 100 dollars on a 10 dollar deposit.
The top 50 in the Race to Dubai Rankings after Abu Dhabi advance to the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai, the second and final Play-Offs event, where the season-long title is decided.
The tournament runs November 5 to 8, so the third round is Saturday and the final round is Sunday, November 8, at Yas Links.
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