2026 Open Championship Odds, Favorites, and Picks at Royal Birkdale
BetspertsGolf
a month ago
Scottie Scheffler is the 2026 Open Championship favorite at +550, with Rory McIlroy right behind him at +850 as the year’s final major heads to Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, from July 16 to 19. Scheffler arrives as the defending champion, McIlroy comes in as a back-to-back Masters winner, and the whole board is squeezed toward a familiar handful of names before a single ball is struck on the Sefton Coast.
This is the 154th Open and the 11th staged at Birkdale, a links most players quietly rank as the fairest test on the rota. That reputation matters when you handicap it. Below is where the odds sit, what the course actually asks for, and the angles worth chewing on before Thursday.
2026 Open Championship odds at Royal Birkdale
Scheffler leads the market and it is not close. He won the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush and has been the most reliable player on the planet, so oddsmakers have made him the shortest price of the week. McIlroy sits second after a spring that included his second straight Masters title. Then the field spreads out.
| Player | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +550 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | +1900 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2000 |
Odds move as the week goes on, and both DraftKings and FanDuel have posted lines, but the shape has held for weeks. Scheffler and McIlroy are a tier of their own. Fleetwood, Rahm, Schauffele, and Fitzpatrick make up the next cluster, and the value hunting really starts below them.
What Royal Birkdale asks of the field
Royal Birkdale plays as a par 70 stretching to about 7,156 yards, threaded through towering dunes on the coast north of Liverpool. It has a reputation for rewarding good golf rather than punishing near-misses, which is rare for an Open venue. The fairways are generally visible off the tee, the bounces are less random than at some links, and a player who strikes it well tends to get paid.
That does not make it soft. The architects Mackenzie and Ebert have tinkered with bunkers, tees, and a few holes since Jordan Spieth won here in 2017, and the wind off the Irish Sea is always the great equalizer. When it blows, Birkdale bares its teeth. When it lies down, the good ball-strikers pull away. Either way, this is a driving and iron-play test more than a putting contest, and that profile flows straight into how you bet it.
Who won the last Open at Royal Birkdale
Jordan Spieth won the last Open held at Royal Birkdale, in 2017, closing with one of the more chaotic and brilliant final rounds in recent major memory. His scramble on the 13th hole that day is still replayed every time this course comes up. Spieth is in the field again in 2026, though he arrives without the ball-striking form that carried him nine years ago.
Betting and DFS angles for the 2026 Open
Start with the obvious. Scheffler at +550 is short, but he is short for a reason, and fading the world’s best player at a course that rewards clean ball-striking is a tough way to make a living. If you want him, the smarter play may be matchups, top-five markets, and first-round leader tickets rather than the outright.
Fleetwood is the emotional favorite and the trickiest number on the board. He grew up in Southport and finally broke through for his first PGA Tour win at the 2025 Tour Championship, so the story writes itself. At +1400 the market has already priced in the fairy tale, and some models actually see him as a slight fade at that number. That tension makes him a great matchup and top-10 candidate more than a confident outright.
For DFS and longer outright tickets, lean into ball-strikers who handle wind and keep the driver in play. Birkdale’s fairness means you do not need to chase the wildest bombers or the streakiest putters. Rahm, Schauffele, and Fitzpatrick all fit the mold in that +1900 to +2000 range, and the deeper board is where the roster-differentiating value lives. Build the model around driving accuracy, strokes gained approach, and recent links form, then let the wind forecast nudge your final weights.
Before they tee off, build your model. The Rabbit Hole hands you the strokes gained PGA data, and code BSG26 takes 25% off any plan.
Frequently asked questions
When does the 2026 Open Championship start and where is it played
The 154th Open runs Thursday, July 16, through Sunday, July 19, 2026, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, Merseyside. It is the 11th Open staged at Birkdale and the fourth and final men’s major of the year.
Is Scottie Scheffler the defending Open champion
Yes. Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush, so he defends the Claret Jug at Birkdale. That title defense, plus his season-long consistency, is why he opened as the clear +550 favorite.
How big is the 2026 Open field
The Open field is set at 156 players, filled through a mix of exemption categories and qualifying, including the regional and final qualifying series that fed a wave of new names into Royal Birkdale for 2026.
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