Mexican Open – DraftKings Picks
Ron Klos
2 days ago
Each week, along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include the pertinent stats for the specific event that come directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which will typically be somewhat chalky most weeks, I will include at least one player I am confident in who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for DraftKings contests for the 2026 Mexico Open.
$9,000+ range
Play: Marco Penge, $9,700
Penge has the skills Vidanta rewards. He is one of the longest hitters in this field, ranking eighth in carry distance, and he gains 0.63 strokes per round off the tee on driver-heavy courses. At a venue where you need to play aggressive on the par 5s, he goes for the green on his second shot 78 percent of the time, second-highest in the field.
His 2026 season has been uneven, but he has spiked with some high finishes: fourth at the Valspar, 18th at The Open, 10th at the Biltmore and sixth at the British Masters. He has gained strokes in five of his past six starts across both tours, including four top-20 finishes. His DP World Tour record on warm weather resort courses is strong, too, with a win in Hainan and a ninth at Yas Links in the last year.
Fade: Corey Conners, $9,300
Conners is the kind of player who looks safe at this price, and that is the problem. He makes cuts, 93 percent over the last two years, but he has one top 10 in his past 22 starts and that will not pay off a $9,300 salary in a birdie fest. His iron play is as good as ever, third in this field in approach over the past two years, but Vidanta rewards distance and aggression on the par 5s, and over his last 24 rounds he ranks 68th in the field in birdie or better percentage, 33rd in strokes gained on par 5s and outside the top 50 in carry distance.
The putter has cost him a quarter of a stroke a round over the last year, and on an easy scoring course with slow paspalum greens that gap gets exposed. He has a fine cash game floor, but I would rather pay $300 less for Blades Brown or $100 more for Doug Ghim and get real upside.
$8,000+ range
Play: Jordan Smith, $8,600
Smith arrives at Vidanta in some of the finest form of his PGA Tour career, having finished fourth in his most recent start and gaining 0.93 strokes per round over the past three months, 13th best in this field. His game is built for a course that hands the advantage to long, aggressive drivers. Over his past 24 rounds he ranks sixth in the field off the tee and fifth in going for the green, and he has gained nearly half a stroke per round with the driver on driver-heavy courses over the past two years.
Just as important, he backs up those long drives with sharp long iron play, ranking 13th in strokes gained on approaches from 200-plus yards, a range that accounts for more than 40 percent of the approach shots at Vidanta. Add an 81-percent cut rate over two years, and Smith offers both a reliable floor and genuine upside at a fair price.
Fade: Luke Clanton, $8,300
Clanton is coming off two strong starts, and his price has climbed more than $1,000 as a result, but this is the wrong course on which to chase him. He is one of the shorter hitters in the field, 94th in driving distance over his last 24 rounds and 92nd off the tee, and he lays up more than almost anyone, 98th in going for the green. Vidanta rewards the opposite. Over the last 12 months he has lost 0.29 strokes per round, he ranks 86th in the field in putting over that stretch and he has made just 55 percent of cuts over two years. The irons are legit, sixth in approach, but they have not been enough to consistently keep him around on the weekend. At $8,300 I would rather have Kevin Yu for $300 less.
$7,000+ range
Play: Kevin Roy, $7,500
Roy has quietly become one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour, and his salary has moved in the opposite direction, sitting $700 below his average over his past five events. Before last week he strung together five straight finishes inside the top 35, capped by a 13th at Baycurrent.
His underlying numbers match the Vidanta blueprint closely. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks fourth in this field in proximity from 200-plus yards and seventh in both birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance, and over his last 48 rounds no one in the field has made birdie more often when going for the green in two.
He has also shown that the course suits his eye, gaining 1.59 strokes per round across two appearances with finishes of 18th in 2023 and 17th last year. At this price, that combination of form, fit and course history is difficult to find.
$6,000+ range
Play: Joel Dahmen, $6,800
Dahmen offers more course specific upside than anyone in the $6,000 range, and Mexico has been the most reliable stop on his calendar. He has made the cut in all nine of his starts in the country, gaining 1.56 strokes per round across those 36 rounds, with a third and a sixth at El Camaleon and a sixth at Vidanta last year. Over the last two seasons he also ranks second in this field in strokes gained on coastal courses.
His recent ball-striking is also trending up, as he ranks 12th in this field tee to green, 11th on approach and 16th in strokes gained from 200-plus yards over his past 24 rounds. The putter has held him back, but slow paspalum greens tend to compress the gap between the best and worst putters, which places the emphasis squarely on the long game where Dahmen has been excellent.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
