DFS Strategy and Picks – 2022 Valero Texas Open
Ron Klos
4 years ago
One of the largest angles I am attacking this week relates to my “Core 4” sub-model and a grouping of metrics I believe are paramount in having success at TPC San Antonio. Simply put, I am targeting players who rank high in recent form, in SG: Approach, and also in par-5 scoring. Players that check that box include Gary Woodland, Luke List, and Chris Kirk.
Out of the last 24 winners of the Valero Texas Open, 11 have been native Texans. A player like Ryan Palmer has been struggling for months. The Amarillo, Texas native loves this course and won’t play poorly forever. While his $8,000 price tag seems high, he presents a great ownership pivot from the more highly-owned Patton Kizzire and Mito Pereira. Other players with Texas ties who will be in my player pool include Austin Smotherman, Kramer Hickok, and Beau Hossler.
One final angle I am factoring in relates to the large grouping of players who have not punched a ticket to the Masters. I am including many of those players in my pool and expect the likes of Maverick McNealy, Adam Hadwin, and Kevin Streelman to be very motivated this week. On the flip side, I am fading many of the upper-tier players on the board who are already playing at Augusta next week. Not only do they eat up so much salary, but the fact they might be using this week as a warm-up for the Masters is potentially worrisome. Rory McIlroy was going to be a complete fade for me until I did some research and realized how dominant he has been when playing the week before a major tournament. After analyzing the data in the chart below, combined with his current form and how seriously he is taking this preparation period before the Masters, I will be overweight compared to the field on McIlroy.