Ron Klos
12 days ago




Play: Ryan Gerard, $9,300
Gerard has quietly put together one of the more well-rounded profiles in the field. Over the last three months, he has gained strokes in every category, including an average of 1.22 strokes per round ball-striking. His improved putting may be the most encouraging development, as he has gained on the greens in 11 of his last 14 starts.
He closed out a strong 2026 season with a T24 at the FedEx St. Jude, a T16 at the BMW Championship and a third-place finish at the Tour Championship. That came after an impressive summer stretch that included a T8 at the Rocket Classic, a runner-up finish at the Memorial and a T10 at Colonial, both of which are tree-lined, ball-striking-oriented venues. Those results gave him five top-10 finishes in his last 11 PGA TOUR starts.
The setup at Yokohama should suit the strengths Gerard has displayed throughout the year, with positioning and precise approach play more important than simply generating distance. His recent international form adds another layer of appeal. Over the last month, he has posted three straight top-30 finishes in Europe, and previously finished T9 at the Open Championship along with a runner-up finish at the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open in December.
Fade: Doug Ghim, $9,200
I get it. Doug Ghim is hot right now. He’s playing the best golf of his career. But he’s had all of his success in tournaments with below average fields. He did not make the FedExCup Playoffs and has not played in a single Signature Event or Major this year. At this price, and considering those surrounding him in the $9K range, until he can prove it in a “big-boy” event he is a complete fade for me.

Per the Rabbit Hole, Doug Ghim’s last eight starts in strong-field events.
Play: Kurt Kitayama, $8,800
Kitayama’s comfort level in Japan and across Asia adds another layer of intrigue this week. He has teed it up in each of the last four PGA TOUR events held in Japan and has recorded four top-30 finishes in his last five starts in Asia, including a fifth-place finish and a T16 over the past three years. His international résumé is also impressive, highlighted by multiple victories on the DP World Tour in the Middle East.
From a statistical standpoint, Kitayama brings one of the strongest profiles in the field. Since the start of the year, he ranks as the fourth-best ball-striker and is also one of the top total drivers, combining distance with accuracy off the tee.
Like Gerard, the biggest reason for optimism may be the progress he has made on the greens. When the putter cooperates, Kitayama has shown the ability to contend against elite competition. Over the last six months, he has posted nine top-25 finishes, including four top-12 results in strong-field events, giving him both a high floor and legitimate winning upside this week.
Fade: Jordan Spieth, $8,300
Though he always seems on the verge of a breakthrough, Spieth just can’t get all facets of his game on track in the same week. He is still without a top-10 finish over his last 28 starts. If nothing else, we get four guaranteed rounds of the “Jordan Spieth Experience”. I prefer both Rickie Fowler and Alex Smalley in this range.
Play: Brian Harman, $7,500
Harman continues to stand out as one of the more underrated values on the slate. He brings one of the highest floors on Tour, with 12 top-40 finishes over the last six months, while his T3 at the 3M Open and T11 at THE PLAYERS Championship demonstrate the upside he can provide at this price. He also fits this field particularly well, ranking among the best approach players from Zoysia fairways and one of the strongest putters on bentgrass greens. The shorter, positional nature of Yokohama should further suit his strengths.
Play: Nick Taylor, $6,800
Taylor is similar to Harman in that he has a high floor combined with ceiling upside. Both also have tons of experience playing in these small-field, no-cut events. Taylor has only missed two cuts in the past year with seven top-25 finishes in the same span. The five-time PGA Tour winner also had a great Presidents Cup showing two weeks ago, going 2-1-1 in his matches. He finished outside the top 50 in this year’s FedExCup standings and will be plenty motivated to finish strong during the fall swing to get into the bigger events at the start of 2027.