DFS Golf2026 Underdog PGA Best Ball Rankings: Strategy, ADP Targets, Late Round Picks

2026 Underdog PGA Best Ball Rankings: Strategy, ADP Targets, Late Round Picks

Pat Mayo

5 months ago

Rankings vs ADP for Underdog PGA Best Ball Drafts

After doing a bunch of Underdog’s PGA Best Ball Scramble drafts, it’s clear that rankings alone don’t win contests—team construction does. The challenge isn’t identifying good golfers, but assembling rosters that can both survive the early rounds and win late in the season.

Why Raw Rankings Aren’t Enough

Traditional rankings tend to over-optimize for early survival. My rankings, especially. Players who enter many events—especially non-signature tournaments—help teams advance out of Round 1. However, that same approach often collapses in later rounds when elite talent becomes essential.

Uploading a straight rankings CSV and letting auto draft run exposes this flaw immediately. Teams end up overloaded with “volume guys” and light on top-end firepower, leaving them competitive early but outmatched when it matters most. Or the inverse, and the team has no chance of escaping Round 1.

The core issue: rankings don’t understand average draft position (ADP) or context. A human drafter knows Chris Kirk will be available later and Tommy Fleetwood won’t. An algorithm does not.

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Early Rounds vs. Late Rounds: Two Different Games

Winning the Scramble requires balancing two competing needs:

Early rounds: Players who will tee it up often in events like the Sony Open, American Express, Cognizant, and CJ Cup. Birdie-making and guaranteed starts matter most.
Late rounds: Elite players who show up for the Canadian Open and Scottish Open while having access to the Signature Events and Majors.

My rankings skew too heavily toward the first group, maximizing advancement odds but sacrificing championship upside.

The Importance of “Signature Event Access”

Signature events shape the entire contest. Golfers automatically qualified — or those likely to play their way in—carry immense value. Missing out on enough signature-event players often means getting crushed in Round 4.

This is why passing on players like Rory McIlroy or Tommy Fleetwood forces uncomfortable decisions. If you fade them early, you must compensate by aggressively targeting similar-tier players; Matt Fitzpatrick is the best example of this type.

In my first run of drafts, I have 100% of Fitz, usually in round seven or eight. It’s important to pay attention to what the other people in your draft room are doing. It’s pretty clear after 15 or so picks which people in your draft have a clue and which don’t. Rule of thumb: If you can’t figure that out, you’re the one without a clue.

One thing that has been overrated, however, is making sure you have enough players in signature events early. Ideally, you’ll want to end up with seven or eight of these players on your roster, but players like Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Jhonattan Vegas, Lucas Glover, Daniel Berger, Bud Cauley, Shane Lowry, and Keegan Bradley are often available in the final three rounds.

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Robert MacIntyre’s Rising Value

Confirmation that Robert MacIntyre will play the American Express dramatically boosts his profile. That commitment likely signals additional early starts, combined with strong late-season utility via Canada and Scotland.

With four Round 1 events and elite endgame value, MacIntyre now profiles as a Top 20 overall pick, maybe even a Top 10 pick rather than a fringe option.

Market Inefficiencies: Who’s Over- and Undervalued?

Several ADP discrepancies stand out:

Nick Taylor (24.8 ADP) vs. Taylor Pendrith (17.7 ADP): They are similar assets — both are in signature events, play Canada, and probably Scotland—but Taylor is in all the Majors already. Taylor often goes later than Pendrith because of the idea that Pendrith will have to play early and often to get into the Masters. There’s a strong possibility he does. By no means is he a bad pick. However, Taylor will almost assuredly play Sony, AMEX, and Phoenix since he almost always does, and is defending his championship at Sony. So, there’s a chance you get 5/7 starts from Taylor in Round 1, plus all the Majors later on. Pendrith may end up being more valuable in Round 2 if he has to grind the Valspar/Houston/Valero, but both should be treated about the same, and they currently are not: Pendrith is going about a round and a half ahead of Taylor.

Michael Brennan (33.6 ADP): Still undervalued. Elite driving, birdie-making upside, and a heavy early schedule make him a prime breakout candidate. He’s already qualified for The Masters and The Heritage because of his win in Utah, yet has no status for anything else besides regular events. Meaning, Brennan gets to beat up on La Quinta, PGA National, Houston, and Craig Ranch. Those are tough tournaments to find starts.

Max McGreevy (37.8 ADP): A classic overdraft. Playing often doesn’t matter if you miss cuts. Volume without quality is a trap, especially with finishing-position bonuses now in play.

Jake Knapp (54.2 ADP) & Billy Horschel (58.5 ADP): Better late-round targets than many signature-event-only grinders. Knapp’s Cognizant commitment and Horschel’s sponsor exemption upside add value for a mix between high-end and jabroni events.

Mac Hughes (71.4 ADP): I’ve actually had to stop myself from drafting Hughes in the last round every time. You need some diversity at the end. But Hughes is the perfect innings-eater pick. Despite having a full PGA TOUR Card, Hughes isn’t qualified for anything besides THE PLAYERS Championship. So he’s going to have to play… a lot. If you think he can flirt with being Top 70 in the FedEx Cup, he’s someone that, like Pendrith, will have to play a lot to get back into Majors and, regardless, will fill starts at Sony, AMEX, Phoenix, Cognizant, Valspar, one of the two Texas events, CJ Cup, Colonial, Canada, Scotland, and John Deere. Although that’s not too dissimilar from a lot of run-of-the-mill PGA players, getting almost guaranteed access to Sony/Cog in Round 1 and Canada/Scotland/ (maybe JDC) in the Championship round is absolutely massive to fill out teams. There’s a chance Hughes doesn’t go to Scotland if he’s not in the British Open. But that means you got Deere Run out of him anyway.

Rory McIlroy: Building for Round 4

Rory remains one of the most polarizing picks. Early-season absences make advancing harder, but teams that survive with Rory are overwhelmingly strong late in the season. The data from last year confirms it: Rory teams that advance tend to be the ones still alive at the end.

Drafting Rory fundamentally changes your strategy—you must prioritize early-round survival elsewhere to unlock his late-round dominance. This is where rankings vs ADP begin to come into play. I’ve actually been taking Rory in round three in most drafts now, ahead of players I have ranked above him, because he’s a key cog in actually winning this contest, given his schedule. While likely only playing twice in seven events in Round 1 of the PGA Best Ball, Rory is one of a select few who may play in five of the six tournaments in the championship round.

He always plays in the Canadian Open and the Scottish Open, while showing up at the US and British Opens (obviously) and the Travelers, a signature event. This is what makes Sam Burns the clear number two pick in drafts. Since he’ll do the same as Rory but make more starts the rest of the year.

In fact, if Burns overachieves this season, because of his schedule, it may actually make him more valuable than Scottie Scheffler. You should always take Scheffler with the first pick, though, even if you think Burns will outscore him, as the No. 1 pick is your only chance to build any Scottie teams. You can get lucky and grab Burns at picks 2/3/4/5 in most drafts. I’m quite confident Burns will play the Canadian Open, as he’s one of three non-Canadians sponsored by RBC, the event’s title sponsor. Same reason you’ll see Sahith Theegala and Cam Young at TPC Toronto again. Historically, Burns has shown up in Scotland, where the other two skip it more often than not.

This also gives Canadian players extra priority. You know they’re playing the Canadian Open. And most have shown up in Scotland as well.

Canadian Open & Scottish Open: Hidden Round 4 Leverage

These two events quietly shape the final rounds.

The Canadian Open has become an all-star event for International players. Very few high-end Americans play in Canada the week before the US Open.
Scottish Open participation often reflects Open Championship prep philosophy.

Players likely to appear in both:

Maybe both: Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jake Knapp, Byeong-Hun An, Aaron Rai, Cameron Young, Michael Kim, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Wyndham Clark