Wells Fargo Championship Projections Preview

Each week, I share the top 20 players in our model’s projections based on win percentage. I also include reactions to the initial results and context as to why certain players landed higher or lower than the market. Here are the results for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship:

Due to some challenges in getting a new model ready, we are still using v1 of our betting projections model. We hope to have the new and improved version ready for the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks. Until then, here are some notes on this week’s projections:

• Rory McIlroy is the favorite for the tournament, and rightfully so. He’s been strong tee-to-green, off the tee, and around the green recently. However, he gets dinged in our model for his struggling approach game, where he ranks 64th in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds played.
• Tony Finau, coming off of a T2 at the Mexico Open, slots in as the second favorite in our model this week. Finau has been on a hot streak with his play lately, ranking in the top 8 in SG:TOT, SG:T2G, and SG:APP over his last 12 rounds played. Look for him to continue his solid play this week.
• Shockingly, Matthew Fitzpatrick falls outside of our top 20 for the week. Despite decent short form tee-to-green and ball-striking, he ranks outside the top 20 in most other major categories that our model accounts for (SG: OTT, SG:APP, SG:ARG).

Featured Image: Getty Images: Gregory Shamus