Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets

We are ditching the warm weather and beaches for some cold, windy and rainy northeast golf. The PGA Tour is heading to the nation’s capitol for The Wells Fargo Championship, an event normally held in North Carolina at Quail Hollow is set to take place at TPC Potomac. 

Although this course is not a staple on The PGA Tour, it has been home to quite a few PGA Toure events over the year. Most recently, TPC Potomac was the host site to the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans Championship, an event that we have strokes gained data for.

The field this week is certainly not going to blow anyone’s socks off, but it is a massive step up from last week. Headlined by Rory Mcllroy, we have other elite talents like Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Marc Leishman and Tyrell Hatton. 

The good thing about this course is that its one of the more difficult tracks on The PGA Tour; in 2017 it ranked at the most difficult non-major venue of that year. I do want to say that I am having a hard time nailing down exactly how this winning score will end up.

Given the rain and cold weather in the forecast, as well as an increase in talent and equipment, I am hard pressed to nail down a number this will be won at. My best guess would be -10 to -15. 

I am going to keep my normal exposure and outright betting strategy this week for this event. 

Outright: Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 (BetMGM) 

I think it is finally time for Fitzpatrick to break through and get his first win on US soil. I see a similar situation when Francesco Molinari nabbed his first win on U.S. soil at this event in 2018. 

What I like so much about Fitz this week is just how excellent of a driver of the ball he is. Fitzgerald is 7th in SG: OTT over the past 50 rounds in this field. He also ranks 13th in SG: Tee to Green over the past 50 rounds. With many hazard areas and thick rough, elite driving is going to be extremely important. 

I also really like that Fitzpatrick does not make a lot of mistakes. Judging from player quotes, it is extremely important to be patient and not try and overpower the golf course. Matt ranks first in this field in Bogey avoidance this week, a stat I know is going to be extremely important. 

Fitzpatrick is way too talented of a golfer to not have a win on the PGA Tour and I think this week is the time it all changes. 

Top 10: Gary Woodland +450 (FanDuel) 

We are going to go right back to Gary Woodland after a lackluster t24 last week. I wrote him up as my favorite outright of the week and he obviously did not deliver but I think there is a lot to take from his outing. Gary gained a staggering 9.2 strokes tee-to-green, highlighted by 4.4 OTT. TPC Potomac is a place where historically bad putters with that are immaculate ball-strikers have succeeded. Kyle Stanley won this event, losing strokes on the greens. Gary fits that mold after losing 3.5 strokes on the greens last week. 

It is always important to find in-form ball strikers and Gary is the perfect example of that. I trust that he can have a good enough week to finish top 10 at the Nations Capital. 

Top 20: Sepp Straka +260 (Caesars)

This is an outrageous line. Plain and simple, Sepp Straka is already a winner on Tour this season and was very much so in position to win at the RBC just a few weeks ago. An extremely talented ball striker and someone that excels in difficult conditions, Sepp is the play this week. His numbers across the board are extremely high and it makes no sense to me. 

Sepp ranked 5th in bogey avoidance and 7th in proximity from 175-200 yards over the past 12 rounds. These are stats that in my opinion are going to be extremely important this week. Play Sepp every single way this week for some profit. 

Top 40: Satoshi Kodaira +360 (FanDuel)

This is another outrageous line in my opinion. Satoshi is coming off a 15th-place finish last week in Mexico and has shown to potential to string together a lot of great finishes on tour. At this time last year Satoshi went 11th, 13th, 19th and first round leader all on the back on excellent putting performances. The putter showed life last week as he gained 4.4 strokes.

Kodiara also ranked 1st in proximity from 175-200 yards and 11th in fairways gained. These again are going to be extremely important this week. I can see Toshi going on a similar run as went on last year at this time. 

Matchup: Keegan Bradley over Seamus Power  -120 (DraftKings)

I certainly wanted exposure to Keegan this week but I just couldn’t stomach his outright number. I think targeting him this matchup is the best way to get that exposure. In a ball-strikers paradise, I am going to always be interested in Keegan.  This major champion has four top 11 finishes in his last 5 starts on tour. Highlighted by gaining 8 strokes from tee to green at the Valero and 11.4 at The Players, he is certainly in great form. 

Seamus Power on the hand is just someone that I am not super high on this week. He has three missed cuts in his last 5 starts mixed in with two middling finishes at The Players and Masters. I don’t necessarily think he is a horrible play but I will take the ceiling play of Keegan every day.

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