Valero Texas Open Projections Preview

Each week, I share the top 20 players in our model’s projections based on win percentage. I also include reactions to the initial results and context as to why certain players landed higher or lower than the market. Here are the results for this week’s Valero Texas Open:

• Luke List is someone who consistently projects better in our model than the market, and he will continue to project well given his recent form. Over his last 36 rounds, List finds himself in the top seven in SG: T2G, SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG: ARG, all of which we try to capture in our model.
• For the second week in a row, we’re also a little low on Bryson DeChambeau as this will be just his second tournament removed from his injury. Last week at the WGC Match Play, DeChambeau failed to win a single matchup in the group stage. He has the driving ability (first in SG: OTT in his last 36 rounds) to put him in contention at any tournament, but he’ll need the rest of his game to improve for him to have a chance.
• Doc Redman snuck his way into our top 20 as a player with relatively high variance. With the way our model works, this gives Redman a bit of a boost to his chances to win the tournament as his right-tail outcomes are very good, but that also means his left-tail outcomes are very bad. This is why you’ll notice that his percentage to make the cut is the second-lowest among all the golfers in our top 20.

For more info on the course and how the golfer’s are looking at the tournament this week, check out Ron’s course preview and his golfer quotes pieces.

Featured Image Credit: Getty Images