Valero Texas Open – Betting Preview

With one week left before the Masters and the year’s first major, the PGA Tour gathers at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the 104th edition of the Valero Texas Open. This tournament was founded in 1922 and is the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour. It has been held in the San Antonio area since its origins and has relocated to numerous courses before finding its current home in 2010 when Adam Scott was victorious.

TPC San Antonio winds through the narrow corridors of the Cibolo Canyons, just north of Texas’s second most populous city, San Antonio. With fairways framed by dense brush and mature oak trees, the course demands precision off the tee. Elevated greens with tricky pin positions place a premium on approach play, while one of the most challenging sets of par 5s on Tour adds further scoring resistance. Combine that with the ever present gusty Texas winds and it consistently ranks as one of the tougher tests on the PGA Tour, playing as the 11th most demanding course with golfers averaging +0.26 strokes per round.

Off the tee, the Oaks Course presents a demanding mix of narrow, tree-lined corridors that punish inaccuracy while rewarding players who can position themselves strategically for optimal approach angles. One notable change this year is the rough being grown to three inches, up from its typical 2.25 inches, placing an even greater premium on accuracy. Keeping the ball in play off the tee, dialing in precise approaches to the proper green quadrants, and capitalizing on scoring opportunities on the par 5s are all essential ingredients for success here.

There has been a wide variety of past winners at the Valero Texas Open, ranging from heavy favorites like Jordan Spieth in 2021 to shocking underdogs. Corey Conners won as a qualifier in 2019, while Andrew Landry captured the title at 200 to 1 odds in 2018, and Steven Bowditch triumphed in 2014 at 350 to 1. Scoring has also varied significantly depending on the wind. Winning totals have ranged from Conners reaching 20 under par in 2019 to Brian Harman finishing at 9 under par last year.

The Field

In the final week of preparation before The Masters, many of the PGA Tour’s top players look to stay sharp with one last competitive start. The Valero Texas Open field features nine of the top-20 ranked players in the world rankings, headlined by Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Robert MacIntyre, and Alex Noren.

Other contenders that are high on the odds board include Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, and Michael Thorbjornsen. Brian Harman returns to defend his title after winning by three shots over Ryan Gerard last year. The biggest prize at stake for the winner this week is a ticket into the Masters field if they are not already exempt.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at the Valero Texas Open

• SG: APP
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Par 5
• Distance From Edge of Fairway
• Scrambling
• Good Drive %
• Birdie or Better %
• SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Bent)
• Sand Save %
• Proximity 50-125 yds

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

• Course Region: Texas
• Course Length: Long
• Scoring Conditions: Difficult
• Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
• OTT Gain: Difficult
• OTT Club: Mixed
• Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
• APP Gain: Very Difficult
• GIR Accuracy: Difficult
• Rough Penalty: Low
• Par 5 Scoring: Difficult
• Sand Saves: Difficult
• Gain Putting > 15′: Difficult

Valero Texas Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GFA5iWjxU-IHorTam_3X2dIC-lAjUlHG1_9ZqlAUto4/edit?usp=sharing

Outright Betting Selections

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.

• MacIntyre +2200 (1.09u) – Rivers
• Matsuyama +2400 (1u) – 365
• Thorbjornsen +4000 (0.60u) – 365
• McCarthy +5800 (0.41u) – DK
• Homa +13000 (0.18u) – Fanatics
• Hoge +25000 (0.09u) – Rivers

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.

Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images