Valero Texas Open: Best Bets from Brian Kirschner

Hello all! My name is Brian Kirschner and if there is one thing that I love to do, it’s betting on golf. I’m sure that if you are reading this article that you also enjoy wagering on the PGA Tour. I am writing my first article on what some would call a down week with the Valero Texas Open. With The Masters in Augusta National just a week away, a lot of people’s attention is on Georgia, but not us.

The Valero Texas Open presents an opportunity to make money on an event where many others will pass. I believe that people like me who heavily follow and bet on every single PGA Tour event hold an advantage in weeks like this.

For this article for BetSperts, I plan on giving my absolute best bet for each popular type of PGA Tour bet. One outright, one top 10, one top 20, one top 40, and one matchup.

Here are my favorite bets for the 2022 Valero Texas Open

Outright Bet Corey Conners +1800 (DraftKings)

I love the 2019 Valero Texas Open Champion to continue his stellar form and get his second PGA Tour win this week.

Corey Conners is one of the best ball-strikers on tour and that has been proven time and time again. Normally his weakness is his putting but after what I saw last week on similar Texan Bermuda overseeded with Poa, I think he’s proven he likes these greens. Conners had one of the best putting and ball striking events of his career last week with a third-place finish.

Being a dominant driver of the ball has proven to be important to success in this tournament. Conners ranks second in SG: OTT in this field over the past 50 rounds. He also ranks sixth in ball striking and 19th on approach. 

Another reason I like Corey is that past champions at 20/1 have been winning recently and I think that trend continues this week. Some people might have concerns that his number is too low, and I think Vegas knows how dangerous he is this week. 

A reason for concern is that he went on such a deep run just last week at the Match Play, however, something that I would like to point out is that in 2019 40-year old Matt Kuchar made it to the Match Play finals. The very next week at this event, he came in 7th place and gained nine strokes on approach.

Top 10: Maverick McNealy +490 (FanDuel)

This is an outrageous number for a golfer that had one of the most dominant performances of anyone to not make it out of the group stage at the Match Play. He beat Joaquim Niemann 8 & 6 in the first round and then fell short to Kevin Na in a playoff. I like that he is well-rested, is not in The Masters yet, and has been great this 2022 season. 

Mav has not missed a cut since October and has many top-30 finishes in that span. He can play in the wind, is great on long par 5’s, and is primed for a top-10 finish this week.

Top 20: Chris Kirk +185 (FanDuel)

Another golfer not in the Masters’ field, motivated to get a spot at Augusta is Chris Kirk. This is a golfer that is the perfect intersection of recent form and course history that is due to finish in the top 20 this week.

Kirk has three top-8 finishes at this event and has been playing some excellent golf. 14th at WMPO, 7th at the Honda, and 5th at API, there is just something popping in his game right now. I think there is concern about his ability to close out golf tournaments and that is why I think a top 20 is a perfect bet for him this week.

Over the past 24 rounds, Kirk ranks 9th in ball striking, 11th in SG: OTT, and 8th in DraftKings points. BetSperts Projections also give him a 36% chance to finish in the top 20 this week. I very much agree with these projects and am excited to cash this ticket.

Top 40: KH Lee +110 (FanDuel)

This is probably one of my favorite bets on the board this week. In a top 40 bet, I am looking for a golfer that consistently makes the cut and has good course history. KH has both of those this week. A 14th and a 23rd at his two starts at this event and an incredible made-cut streak is why I’m betting KH this week.

KH has not missed a cut in 12 starts! Since Early October KH has played the weekend at every event he has teed it up in. Not to mention “TPC Lee” excels on TPC courses and has won on a Texas TPC course just last year. This bet is a steal at plus money.

Matchup: Adam Hadwin +102 over Tony Finau

I am going to take the golfer that has been 10x more consistent over the past few months at plus money here. Finau has lost on approach in his last five starts on the PGA tour with no finish better than 26th. There is something missing in his game since he won The Northern Trust and I’m willing to bet that it’s going to keep going. 

Hadwin on the other hand is in great form, doesn’t have an invite to The Masters, and is primed for a high finish. With two top 10s in his last two starts, gaining over 3.3 strokes on approach, and excellent putting, this is an easy play for me at plus money.

I appreciate everyone who checked this article out today, I am very excited about this new partnership.

Featured Image credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images