Valero Open One and Done Strategy: Striking Gold in Texas

It was a nice one last week for Min Woo! Some of the other selections didn’t give me the four rounds I thought they could, but it was still nice to end up with the winner on the betting card and as a one-and-done suggestion.

Houston Open Selections Recap:

Davis Thompson T27
Beau Hossler CUT
Min Woo Lee 🏆
Kurt Kitayama T39

Same purse size as last week: $9.5 million with $1.71 million to the winner, which is tied for the 19th largest of the season.

On to the second leg here of the Texas Two-Step after a quick word from our friends at DraftKings:

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CutMakers

I pulled the past 18 months of data for this, so I got all of 2024 and whatever golf we’ve played so far in 2025.  Sorted by made cut percentage and only showing guys with at least 12 starts in that stretch.  Four golfers with wins and a couple more that obviously have some trophies at home.  The big names at the top are likely out for this week, but some of the second tier guys are interesting.  Poston’s 20.6% top 10 rate looks pretty nice on paper.

Pure Ball Strikers

I mentioned this tweet on the live stream this morning, but it illustrates just how much ball striking comes into play this week.  A few more down-the-board names on this list when we look at the past 18 months of gold and sort by SG: Ball Striking, including some guys I liked last week at a very different course.  Ryan Gerard is an interesting name that’s been playing good golf and could be a nice long shot outright bet.

Distance from the Edge of the Fairway

A unique one, but something we’ve all been using in the models this week: this helps account for driving accuracy without being binary.  Simple fairways hit is either yes or no, without any context as to if your ball is two inches into the first cut, or inside the hospitality tent.  Distance from the Edge of the Fairway gives a bit more information about how accurate your driving has been.  This is feet from the edge on drives that did not land on the fairway, for reference, the bottom of the list is Chris Gotterup with a 40-foot average, twice Tom Kim‘s.

 

Par 5 Scoring

Directly from Ron’s Preview Article: “With only three water hazards and non-penal rough, it doesn’t seem like it should be a difficult track, but TPC San Antonio can be a stern challenge as it typically plays firm with windy conditions. There are only two non-par 5 holes that average under par. Historically, the course has averaged more double bogeys or worse than all courses except for PGA National and TPC Sawgrass. It requires a certain level of accuracy off the tee along with stellar iron play on approaches. And even with a full allotment of four par 5s, these are the toughest group of par 5s on Tour. That being said, the ability to score on these holes is one of the few ways for players to separate from the field at this course. Six of the past ten winners led the field in par 5 scoring for the week.”

Here’s the top ten in Par 5 birdie or better rate over the past 18 months:

Valero Open One and Done Suggestions

I think the question may be: how good is Corey Conners?  Do you want to save him for a bigger event?  He’s a great fit here, but may be borderline too big of a name to use.

Keegan Bradley
Rico Hoey
Keith Mitchell
Daniel Berger

 

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