U.S. Open – Betting Preview
Ron Klos
15 hours ago
The PGA Tour’s major championship season continues this week with the 126th U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. Situated between the Atlantic Ocean to the south and the waters of Peconic Bay and Long Island Sound to the north, Shinnecock occupies one of the most exposed pieces of championship golf terrain in America. The combination of rolling sandy ground, firm turf, ever present coastal winds, and some of the most demanding green complexes in the game has helped establish its reputation as one of the premier championship venues in golf. Widely regarded as the closest thing American golf has to a traditional links course, Shinnecock provides a style of examination rarely seen outside of The Open Championship.
Founded in 1891, Shinnecock is the oldest incorporated golf club in the United States and one of the five founding member clubs of the USGA. It hosted both the second U.S. Open and second U.S. Amateur in 1896, and the 2026 championship will mark its sixth U.S. Open, a resume that places it among the most consequential sites in the history of the game.
Originally shaped by William Flynn in 1931 and later restored by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, Shinnecock Hills spans more than 200 acres of windswept terrain that appears remarkably natural to the surrounding landscape. Flynn’s design relies on strategic angles, subtle elevation changes, expansive fairways, native fescue, and elevated crowned greens that place a premium on precision. Though players are given ample room from the tee, the course becomes progressively more difficult as they move toward the hole. Weakly struck approaches, poor misses around the greens, and putts played from the wrong side of the hole are routinely punished. As a result, Shinnecock rewards complete golfers rather than specialists who rely on a single strength.
Shinnecock’s challenge comes not from one overwhelming characteristic but from the cumulative effect of every feature working together. Firm fairways create additional movement after the ball lands. The constantly changing wind direction alters strategy from hour to hour. The rough is capable of eliminating any chance of controlling an approach shot. Most daunting of all are the sloping green complexes, where balls that fail to find the proper sections can quickly roll into tightly mown collection areas or drift well away from the hole.
That dynamic is a major reason why Shinnecock has produced some of the most memorable championships in U.S. Open history. The club first hosted the championship in 1896 and has since crowned champions including Raymond Floyd, Corey Pavin, Retief Goosen, and Brooks Koepka. When the U.S. Open last visited in 2018, only one player finished the week under par as Koepka successfully defended his title with a winning score of one over par. The championship became a survival test over the weekend as firm conditions and gusting winds pushed scoring averages sharply higher. The 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont followed a similar blueprint, with J.J. Spaun emerging as the only player to finish under par for the week.
Few venues allow the weather to influence the championship the way Shinnecock does. USGA Managing Director of Rules and Open Championships Jeff Hall summarized that reality by saying, “One of the great things about Shinnecock is where it’s located. We’ve got the wind freshening and this golf course will test the best players in the world. Mother Nature gets a seat at the table here and will have a meaningful impact on the outcome of the championship.”
That unpredictability is precisely what the USGA hopes to identify. Chief Championships Officer John Bodenhamer explained the objective by saying, “It’s really about getting every club in their bag dirty, all 14 of them, and the 15th, the one between their ears. Hitting it left to right, right to left, high, low.” More than perhaps any venue in the modern U.S. Open rotation, Shinnecock demands execution, creativity, discipline, and sound decision making. Players who control their ball flight, manage the wind, avoid costly mistakes around the greens, and remain patient through inevitable adversity will give themselves the best opportunity to lift the trophy on Sunday.
The Field
The 126th U.S. Open will feature a full field of 156 players representing more than 25 countries, all competing for one of golf’s most coveted championships. As always, the U.S. Open field differs from the other major championships because a significant portion of the available spots are earned through qualifying rather than reserved for tour members. Thousands of golfers attempted to earn a place in the championship through local and final qualifying, reinforcing the event’s longstanding reputation as the most accessible major in professional golf. Following 36 holes, only the top 60 players and ties will advance to the weekend.
Nineteen amateurs successfully earned places in the field, continuing one of the championship’s most unique traditions. Among them is Arni Sveinsson, who will become the first golfer from Iceland ever to compete in a U.S. Open. The field also includes 13 players from LIV Golf, highlighting the increasingly global nature of the championship. From major champions and Ryder Cup veterans to collegiate standouts and qualifiers who survived Golf’s Longest Day, few events in the sport bring together such a diverse collection of competitors.
Virtually every notable player in the world rankings will be in attendance at Shinnecock Hills, led by world number one Scottie Scheffler. The biggest storyline entering the week centers on Scheffler’s pursuit of the career Grand Slam. Having already captured the Masters, PGA Championship, and Open Championship, a victory at Shinnecock would make him just the seventh player in history to win all four major championships. Scheffler has made no secret of how much the achievement would mean to him, saying, “I would love to be able to win the U.S. Open. It’s a tournament that I love. I love my country, I would love to be able to win my national open.”
While Scheffler enters the championship as the clear favorite, the race behind him is considerably more crowded. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm remain the most accomplished challengers, with both former U.S. Open champions continuing to contend regularly on the biggest stages. Beyond that trio, the championship feels remarkably open. Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young have been among the most productive players of the 2026 season with a combined five wins between them.
Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau possess the talent to contend on any major championship venue, while Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood return to the site of their memorable duel in 2018, when Koepka successfully defended his U.S. Open title and Fleetwood nearly matched the championship scoring record with a final-round 63. Other players such as Collin Morikawa, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Russell Henley, Patrick Reed, and Sam Burns add further depth to one of the strongest fields of the season.
The championship also features an impressive collection of former U.S. Open winners. In addition to defending champion J.J. Spaun and 2018 Shinnecock winner Koepka, past champions in the field include McIlroy, DeChambeau, Rahm, Fitzpatrick, Rose, Wyndham Clark, Gary Woodland, and Jordan Spieth.
Past Winners & Odds
U.S. Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
- Fleetwood +2200 (1.09u) – DK
- M. Fitzpatrick +2800 (0.85u) – Fanatics
- Hatton +4600 (0.52u) – DK
- Reed +5500 (0.43u) – 365
- Matsuyama +7000 (0.34u) – Rivers
- M.W. Lee +8500 (0.28u) – 365
- Lowry +9600 (0.25u) – DK
- Smith +16000 (0.15u) – DK
- Harman +25000 (0.09u) – Fanatics
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
