TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, Course Preview – 2022 Wells Fargo Championship

Located less than 20 miles from the national capital on 220 acres of rolling wooded countryside sits this year’s host course for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship, TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm.

With Quail Hollow hosting the President’s Cup in September, this year’s Wells Fargo event has moved to a course that plays longer than its yardage, presents few scoreable holes, and has been infamously nicknamed the “Beast of the Beltway.” TPC Potomac last played host to the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018.

With the PGA Championship in Tulsa only two weeks away and next week’s Byron Nelson event only 230 miles away from Southern Hills, numerous high-ranked golfers have opted to skip this week’s event and have chosen TPC Craig Ranch as their final tune up.

The headliner is defending Wells Fargo champion and 7th-ranked player in the world Rory McIlroy. Other notables in the field include Tony Finau, Paul Casey, Webb Simpson, Matt Fitzpatrick, Gary Woodland, Tyrrell Hatton, Abraham Ancer, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, Russell Henley, and Corey Conners.

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm Overview

History

TPC Potomac was built in 1986 and was a combined effort by a trio of architects – Ed Ault, Tom Clark, and Ed Sneed. It’s been through numerous renovations including a historic one in 2008 which utilized input from over 50 current and former PGA Tour players. The layout was dramatically changed to showcase more of the natural rolling terrain. The grass was also changed completely to bentgrass on all parts of the course.

The Booz Allen Classic (originally the Kemper Open) was an annual stop on the PGA Tour stretching from 1987 to 2006. It most recently hosted the Quicken Loans National event in 2017-18 and remains almost the same course as it was four years ago. Since then only two changes have taken place. The par-5 2nd hole was lengthened 50 yards, making it a monstrous 641 yards. And a fairway bunker was added to the right side of the 18th fairway.

The Course

TPC Potomac at Avenal Farms is a par-70 course at 7,160 yards. It ranks in the middle of the pack as far as course length goes. As is the case with most TPC courses, the turf conditions are immaculate. Players will see Bentgrass fairways and greens. At close to 3.5″, the Kentucky Bluegrass and fescue rough is thick and very challenging.

Overall, this course will present a very stern test. The first eleven holes have been described as “punishing”. They are filled with numerous out-of-bounds areas and hazards that seemingly are pinching fairways tighter together near the landing areas. Numerous elevation changes confuse players’ sightlines and can make club selection tricky. The 470-yard, par-4 11th hole was the highest scoring hole on Tour for 2017 (4.42).

On most weeks the par-5s are the best chance at birdie or better opportunities. This week is an entirely different story. There are only two par-5s and neither is a pushover. As previously mentioned, at 641 yards, the 2nd hole has been lengthened and is unreachable in two shots. The 10th plays to 591 yards and forces golfers to lay up because it doesn’t present a good angle to go for the green in two shots. With a scoring average of 4.83, these two holes are among the toughest par-5s on Tour.

As scoring becomes easier on the back-nine, the best opportunity comes on the driveable 299-yard par-4 14th hole. With an eagle rate of over 4%, it offers players a chance to take a breath and hopefully score a birdie.

Eight of the 12 par-4s play at 440-plus yards and three of the par-3s are 190+ yards. This further adds to the “length” narrative of the course.

One thing is for sure, this Wells Fargo Championship will not be a birdie-fest. Even though back in 2018 when Francisco Molinari ran away from the field with a 21-under score, it is very likely we will return to a finishing score more similar to Kyle Stanley’s 7-under from 2017. Even winning totals from the web.com tournaments (now Korn Ferry Tour) that were held at TPC Potomac back in 2012-2013 had winning scores at 7-under.

With tree trouble everywhere, nine holes of water danger, 81 bunkers, only two tough par-5s, and firm and fast contoured greens, TPC Potomac played to 0.68 strokes over par in 2017-2018. As a testament to its toughness, Justin Thomas pointed out, “You could host a U.S. Open here starting tomorrow.” “Patience” is a word that comes up in many of the player quotes, especially the ones with course experience here. Playing for pars on the inward nine makes a ton of sense.

Strokes Gained Analysis

Driving accuracy off the tee is of the utmost importance at TPC Potomac. It is the 14th-toughest course to gain strokes in this area and has a driving accuracy of only 58% with thick, tree-lined wooded areas, wayward drives will have no chance of hitting the green in regulation. Many holes also have a forced carry along with thick 3.5″ rough.

While it does appear to be a “less than driver” course according to No Laying Up, “The long ball has a little extra benefit on this course. Many tee shots feature a kind of tabletop fairway, where the beginning of the landing area slopes upward and kills most of the roll. Players who can carry the upslope will have a compounded distance advantage – more carry and more roll.”

Conservative play off the tee is typically the wisest choice here at TPC Potomac as drives that are too aggressive run the risk of water, penal rough or angles to the green that are blocked out by trees. Drives that miss the fairway only reach the green in regulation 40.2% of the time, one of the lowest percentages on Tour.

With many players clubbing down off the tee on certain holes, almost half of approach shots are from 175-plus yards. The problem many golfers faced back in 2017-2018 is that the greens were so firm that even mid-irons were bouncing up to five yards or more upon landing causing a GIR of only 62.5%.

Players discuss the need to aim for conservative landing areas away from the flagstick as Scottish-style bunkers and out-of-bounds fescue await wayward approach shots around the 4th smallest greens on Tour at an average of only 4,265 square feet. Long iron play, especially from some of the thickest rough that golfers will see in a non-major, will be crucial to success

With the rough being thick combined with the small firm greens, players will have to scramble their way to par to avoid bogeys. Scrambling is among the toughest on Tour at only 53%, and because of the difficulty of the unique, Scottish-designed bunkers, sand saves are successful only 44% of the time.

While the greens do have some slope to them, putting numbers are quite close to the Tour average. And at such a small size, three-putt percentage is much lower than normal at only 2.1%. Poor putters who are good at chipping like Keegan Bradley have that weakness diminished somewhat on a course like this.

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