TOUR Championship – Betting Preview
Ron Klos
19 days ago
The PGA Tour’s 2026 regular season will conclude at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, with the finale of the FedExCup Playoffs. The top 30 golfers in the FedExCup standings will compete for $40 million, with $10 million to the winner.
For the second consecutive year, there will be no starting-stroke advantage based on the FedEx Cup standings, an effort to make the season-ending tournament more compelling and competitive. All 30 players will begin the 72-hole stroke-play tournament at even par. The player with the lowest score after 72 holes will win the FedEx Cup, along with a bonus and a five-year PGA Tour exemption.
The oldest golf course in Atlanta, East Lake, is an urban track that was the home course of the legendary golfer Bobby Jones. In 2023, it underwent a complete restoration under the guidance of noted architect Andrew Green. Even with substantial changes that emphasize its classical characteristics, East Lake remains a lush parkland layout with narrow fairways, difficult Bermuda rough, uneven lies, and fast greens.
With numerous holes presenting strategic choices, the course is regarded as a classic ‘risk-reward’ layout. Over the last few years, it has become one of the easier courses in the annual rotation averaging -1.62 strokes per round over the last five years.. It has been the permanent home of the Tour Championship since 2004, and it has been held at East Lake 24 times since 1998.
Success at East Lake still hinges on avoiding the punishing Bermuda rough, which makes controlling approach shots far more difficult. However, the recent expansion of hole locations and the addition of short-grass collection areas place greater emphasis on short-game specialists, as players will face a wider variety of shots both into and around the greens.
The Field
The TOUR Championship brings the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings to East Lake for the final event of the season. Scottie Scheffler enters as the FedExCup leader for the fifth consecutive year and is joined by a strong group that includes Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg, Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood.
The field also includes several players making their first TOUR Championship appearance, highlighted by Chris Gotterup, Cameron Young, Jacob Bridgeman, Ryan Gerard, Kristoffer Reitan and Alex Fitzpatrick. Gary Woodland, Patrick Cantlay and Robert MacIntyre all moved into the top 30 at the BMW Championship, while Ryan Fox grabbed the final qualifying spot at No. 30.
Most Important Stats For Success at East Lake GC
*In order of importance
- Total Driving
- DFEF
- SG: Approach
- Proximity: 200+
- SG: Par 4
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive % (Bermuda Rough)
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Bogey Avoidance
Tour Championship Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Southeast
- Scoring Conditions: Average
- Course Length: Very Long
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Par: 70
- Event Type: No Cut
- Event Season: Playoffs
- Field Size: Small Field
- Course Architect: Donald Ross
- Greens Surface: Bermuda
- Rough Surface: Bermuda
- Rough Length: Long
- OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
- Gain OTT: Easy
- Gain Approach: Difficult
- Gain ARG: Difficult
- Gain Putting: Easy
TOUR Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
- Burns +1900 (1.26u) – 365
- Morikawa +2100 (1.14u) – DK
- Henley +3000 (0.80u) – FD
- MacIntyre +5000 (0.48u) – Caesars
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images