TPC San Antonio has been hosting the Valero Texas Open since 2010, and in that time it has established itself as one of the more demanding venues on the PGA Tour rotation. One week before the Masters, a strong field has assembled in San Antonio with plenty of motivation on both sides of the cut line. For some it is a final tune-up before Augusta. For others it is a last chance to earn an invitation.

Here is everything you need to know to build your model and find the best bets for this week.

NOTE: We’re going to list MORE filters on each one going forward.  These are optional ways to get deeper into the data.  Often times they will limit your sample size and force you to move to a bigger time frame, but can be good ways to better determine who’s actually excelling in certain stat categories as it pertains to this week.  Any questions?  Hit us up in the Discord!

The Basics — Start Here

1. SG: Approach

There is no more important number at TPC San Antonio than approach play, and it is not close. The course ranks as one of the toughest on Tour to gain strokes on approach, finishing inside the top 10 in approach difficulty in each of the last two years. With an average GIR of just 56 percent over that same stretch, players who do find the green have usually earned it. The greens are elevated on many holes, heavily bunkered, and feature significant undulation that punishes imprecise placement.

The proof is in the history. In 2024, the final leaderboard and the SG: Approach leaderboard for the week were virtually identical. In 2023, same story. Corey Conners won that year while barely gaining a stroke putting. His approach play was the best in the field by three strokes and it was more than enough. Pull SG: Approach over the past three to six months and weight it more heavily than anything else in your model.

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG: APP | Filters: Gain APP — Difficult, Scoring Conditions — Difficult

2. SG: Tee-to-Green

Before getting into the finer details, tee-to-green gives you a clean read on overall ball-striking health. This is a course that demands execution from tee to green on nearly every hole, and players who have been posting consistently positive numbers here over recent months are the ones to prioritize. Think of it as your sanity check before adding any other columns.

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG: T2G | Filters: Scoring Conditions — Difficult, Wind — Moderate or Windy

3. Good Drive Percentage

Driving accuracy as a raw stat is not particularly predictive here. The fairways are only 25 to 30 yards wide, the narrowest on Tour, and only 50 percent of drives find the short grass on average. Accuracy players cannot fully exploit their precision here because the fairways are simply too tight for anyone to hit consistently. What matters is avoiding the catastrophic miss into the dense Texas brush and rocky terrain that lines both sides of nearly every hole. Jordan Spieth put it well: “You can’t make many mistakes off the tee. A lot of holes you have rocks and brush off both sides of the fairway.” Good Drive Percentage captures that better than raw accuracy because it identifies players who are missing by a manageable amount rather than spraying it into trouble.

View: Off the Tee | Column: Good Drive % | Filters: Fairway Accuracy — Difficult

Getting Granular — One Layer Deeper

4. SG: Around the Green with Sand Save Emphasis

With an average GIR of 56 percent, scrambling opportunities come up constantly at TPC San Antonio. More importantly, the 64 bunkers scattered across the course are deep and positioned almost exclusively around the greens, where errant approach shots most commonly land. Sand saves here rank among the most difficult on Tour. A player who struggles from bunkers will bleed strokes on this specific course in a way that is hard to recover from.

Filter your around-the-green data specifically to difficult sand save conditions. It is a quiet separator that most models overlook.

View: Around the Green | Column: SG: ARG, Sand Saves % | Filters: Sand Saves — Difficult, Gain ARG — Difficult

5. Par 5 Scoring

Six of the last 11 winners here led the field in par-5 scoring for the week. Given that the par 5s at TPC San Antonio average 588 yards and only 11 percent of second shots actually hold the green in regulation, these holes become a wedge and short game contest more than a power contest. Less than half the field even attempts to go for the green in two. The one you absolutely must score on is the par 5 14th, which has more eagles than the other three par 5s combined. Hole 8 is the volatility hole at over 600 yards with a 20 percent birdie rate but nearly a 16 percent bogey rate.

View: Scoring | Column: Par 5 BoB %, SG: Par 5 | Filters: None

6. Bogey Avoidance

TPC San Antonio produces more double bogeys or worse than every venue on Tour except PGA National and TPC Sawgrass. Three of the four toughest holes on the course are par 4s on the front nine, all carrying a bogey or worse rate above 29 percent. This is not a course where you can give shots back and expect to recover. Players who avoid the big number consistently are worth a significant premium in your model this week.

View: Scoring | Column: Bogey AVD % | Filters: None

Down the Rabbit Hole

These filters can take more time to configure and should be weighted lightly. Adjust your time frame and minimum rounds accordingly to protect against small sample noise.

7. Distance from Edge of Fairway

This is the stat that was specifically called out in the Betsperts Golf research for this event and it is one that most models will not include. Rather than measuring whether a player hits the fairway, it measures how far offline their misses travel. At TPC San Antonio, a ball in the first cut of rough is largely unpunished. A ball in the rock-lined brush or tree corridors is a recovery shot at best and a lost ball at worst. Distance from Edge of Fairway identifies which players are truly erratic off the tee versus those who are simply missing by a manageable margin. This matters even more in 2026 with the rough growing to three inches, which increases the penalty for the more severe misses.

View: Off the Tee | Column: DFEF | Filters: Fairway Accuracy — Difficult

8. Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Percent from 50 to 150 Yards

With par 5s regularly requiring a third shot from inside 150 yards after a lay-up, this course over-indexes significantly on wedge approach shots compared to Tour average. Twenty-six percent of all approaches here come from inside 125 yards compared to the Tour average of 21 percent. Players who convert those wedge opportunities into genuine birdie chances are the ones who separate on the par 5s. Pull proximity data specifically from 50 to 150 yards filtering for shots finishing inside 15 feet. This is where the best par 5 scorers this week will quietly build their advantage.

View: Approach Scoring Opps | Column: 50-100 and 101-150 Scoring Opps i15% | Filters: Par 5 Scoring — Difficult

9. Performance in Difficult Scoring Conditions with Low Rough Penalty

Set your conditions filter to difficult scoring environments combined with a low rough penalty filter. This is the historical fingerprint of TPC San Antonio. A player who thrives when scoring is hard but the rough is forgiving represents a very specific profile that aligns almost perfectly with what this course has demanded over the past decade. With the rough increasing to three inches this year it is worth running a second version with the rough penalty set to average to account for the 2026 setup change, then comparing which players rank well in both.

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG: TOT | Filters: Scoring Conditions — Difficult, Rough Penalty — Low, Wind — Moderate or Windy, Grass Condition — Dry

10. Colonial CC and Pebble Beach Course History

Two comp courses have shown consistent predictive value at TPC San Antonio. Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth is the tightest comp given the shared Texas wind exposure, similar yardage, emphasis on iron play, and the fact that accurate players who manage the course strategically tend to dominate both venues. Pebble Beach correlates well because wind is the dominant factor there too, and winners at both courses tend to be players with links-style games who can manage the ball in difficult conditions. Pull SG: Total from both venues over the past three to four years and weight it lightly as a supporting filter. It is particularly useful for identifying mid-range value plays who might not pop at the top of the basic stat categories but have quietly shown they belong in this type of environment.

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG: TOT | Filters: None | Select Colonial CC and Pebble Beach under Courses. Widen the Time Frame to at least three years.

The beauty of building a model for TPC San Antonio is that the course is unusually transparent about what it rewards. It wants precise iron players who can navigate wind, avoid the catastrophic miss off the tee, convert wedge opportunities on the par 5s, and get up and down from deep bunkers when they do miss greens. Start with approach play, layer in around the green and bogey avoidance, and use the wind and course history filters to confirm your reads. When your model is done, you will have a card built on course-specific data rather than whoever happens to be at the top of the betting board this week.