The Memorial Tournament Best Bets

The PGA Tour is headed to Dublin, Ohio this week for Jack’s tournament, The Memorial Tournament. It is one of the premier non-majors on tour, and that is seen in its course and field this week.

As always, the field for the 2022 Memorial Tournament is stacked. Seven out of the top 10 golfers in the world will tee it up. Jon Rahm is looking for redemption, Patrick Cantlay is looking to repeat, and Rory McIlroy is looking for his first win this calendar year. With the U.S. Open just two weeks away, The Memorial is a great chance to assert oneself as the favorite at Brookline

This event is held at Muirfield Village Golf Club. The first Memorial Tournament was held in 1976. The golf course has crowned some of the game’s best as champions over the years. Tiger Woods, Greg Norman, Fred Couples, Vijay Singh, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, and Patrick Cantlay are all past winners at Muirfield Village Golf Club.

As for the golf course, we are certainly in for a difficult test this week. Muirfield Village underwent a recent renovation that lengthened it to 7,543 yards. But what didn’t change was the thick Bluegrass rough and the small, quick undulating bentgrass greens that cause players fits every single year. This event has proven to be a difficult test for these PGA Tour pros. Expect a winning score in the low-to-mid-teens under par.

Outright Shane Lowry +2500 (BetMGM) 

Lets try this one more time. Shane Lowry will win a PGA Tour event soon and this week seems to be the perfect spot. I wrote up Shane as my favorite outright in the article at the RBC Heritage and he ripped our hearts out. This is my last ditch effort to be on Shane for his first win this season. 

In my opinion, there has not been a more consistent golfer this PGA Tour season than Shane. His worst finish was two weeks ago at the PGA where he finished T23 in the bad wave. Shane has three top 5s and two other top 15 finishes in his other starts. 

This Open Champion ranks 1st in total strokes gained over the past 24 rounds in this stacked field. Lowry also ranked 2nd in bogey avoidance over the same time frame. I think that stat is going to be extremely important this week as Muirfield Village is an extremely hard test of golf. Lowry also finished top 5 in this event last year. This Irishman already has a PGA win in Ohio at Firestone. Shane will finally break through this week and I will be there for it at +2500.

Top 10: Xander Schauffele +200 (Caesars) 

If you want to talk about consistency and someone that competes on long , difficult bent golf courses, look no further than the San Diego Native. The reason I really like Xander this week is just how good of golf is he currently playing at the moment. He is a off a win, a T5 and T13 in his last three starts on tour. 

These results are on the back of some really excellent ball-striking performances. Xander gained 7.9 strokes from tee-to-green at the PGA Championship and 9.8 strokes tee-to-green at the AT&T Bryon Nelson. In addition, Xander ranks 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, 11th in Strokes Gained – Approach and 6th Tee-To-Green in the 2022 Memorial field. 

Mix all these great stats with three straight top 15 finishes at this event, I think +200 is a steal for Xander to finish in the top 10 this week. Another reason to like this bet is that Xander is not the most prolific winner on tour and a top 10 bet is the perfect deployment on him.

Top 20: Seamus Power +220 (PointsBet) 

There was a time on tour not that long ago when Seamus Power top 20’s hit almost every week. I think we are back to that time and we are riding it this week. Back in swing season and into the beginning on the 2022 season, Seamus Power finished top 20 in 8 out of 9 starts on tour.

Coming off a 9th Place finish at the PGA Championship – another long, difficult bent grass golf course – and a T17 the week before, I like the form that he is in. At the 2022 PGA Championship, Power gained 1.6 strokes off the tee, 3.5 strokes on approach, 3.7 strokes around-the-green, and 1.5 strokes putting. That’s why he secured his first Top 10 in a major that week.

With this reduced field, it should be a lot easier to finish in the top 20 and I think Seamus is a great bet at +220 

Top 40: Matt Kuchar -125 (DraftKings) 

I don’t normally like laying juice in golf betting but I think this is a scenario that is well worth it. Kuch has made the cut in his last 6 starts on the PGA Tour. That includes two Top 5 finishes. Muirfield Village has also been kind to Matt in the past. He has a victory, two Top 5’s, and only one missed cut in 14 career starts.

He’s also a stat darling this week. Kuchar ranks 4th in bogey avoidance over the past 24 rounds. He also has a stellar short game. Kuchar ranks 1st in this stat over the past 24 rounds. The elite combination of a killer short game and avoiding bogeys should bode well for Kuchar on this tough track.  To make the cut and play well over the weekend should be no problem for Kuch to find himself in the top 40 come Sunday. 

Matchup: Will Zalatoris +100 vs. Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings) 

I am going back to big game hunter Will Zalatoris this week. Although he does not have any course history here, I believe this will be a course Willy Z will contend on for years to come. He is coming off a playoff loss to Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship just two weeks ago. 

Zalatoris was exceptional from tee to green. Gaining 4.6 strokes putting and another 7 strokes on approach. Gaining a large number of strokes on approach has been proven to be the key to success here. 

Other than a win in his first appearance here, Deki’s recent results have not be anything to write home about. Coming off a missed cut and 62nd in his last two appearances, I don’t think if this is the spot it once was for Deki. At plus money I will take Zalatoris here.

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