Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks – 2022 Valspar Championship

PGA Tour rookie Davis Riley shot a 9-under 62 to overtake Matthew NeSmith by two shots heading into the final round of the Valspar Championship. Paired with fellow Alabama grad Justin Thomas, Riley stole the show with numerous chip-ins and only 20 putts for the entire round. Pre-tournament favorites, Justin Thomas and Sam Burns both sit three shots back. 2017 Valspar winner, Adam Hadwin, is five shots back at 13-under. The course played an event-low of 1.33 shots under par. Even with the strongest breezes of the week, greens are still very soft and the tournament scoring record will most likely be broken tomorrow.

Weather Forecast

Relevant Post-Round 3 Player Quotes

*Quotes courtesy of ASAP Sports Transcriptions

Justin Thomas: I would say today was a little better given the conditions. It was definitely windier. Still not too firm. The fairways definitely got firmer, but the greens just still aren’t quite there. But I played solid. Stayed very patient. I watched a really, really good round of golf and made my round feel pretty obsolete. We’re going to have a different wind tomorrow. We’re going to have a little cooler north wind.

Matthew NeSmith: it’s just the golf course sets up well for me. If I drive it well, my iron play is the strength of my game. And there’s a lot of times where guys have to hit it, kind of they have to lay up, and we all have to play from the same spot, so that’s my game. That’s what I’ve always been really good at. So the front nine just suits my eye. Hopefully, we can go out there and do it again tomorrow. But it just suits my eye and I played some good golf.

Davis Riley: I’ve been telling so many people, and obviously I don’t have the results. I was kind of playing through injury last week and just this Florida swing I love it. I love these golf courses, the PGA National, Bay Hill, this place, I feel like they fit my game really well where you gotta drive it well, kind of a ball-striker’s kind of paradise. No, ever since I stepped foot here Monday I just felt really comfortable and now I’m feeling like I finally got the putter rolling so that’s nice to see some putts go in.

Current Betting Favorites

• Justin Thomas +220
• Davis Riley +220
• Sam Burns +380
• Matthew NeSmith +550
• Adam Hadwin +2000
• Best Current Outright Value: None

I fully expect one of either Justin Thomas or Sam Burns to be raising the trophy come late Sunday afternoon. With a live ticket on Thomas at +2200 when he was 1-under on Thursday, he will have my rooting interest. I just don’t see any value with anyone lower than Hadwin as a seven-shot deficit is far too much to overcome with those two stalwarts near the top.

Round 4 Betting Selections 

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Adam Hadwin -150 Over Robert Streb 

Adam Hadwin could not gain any momentum on Saturday and thus still sits five shots off the lead going into Sunday. While his ball-striking let him down in the third round, he loves this course and the numbers show it. Robert Streb caught fire on Saturday but only gains strokes on Sunday 29% of the time over his last 24 round fours. He has also been overachieving on the greens, gaining almost three strokes more than his baseline average. I’ll side with Hadwin’s class and course fit to win this matchup on Sunday.

Risk: 2 Units on FanDuel.

PARLAY +171 (1u) MGM – Viktor Hovland -160 Over Nick Taylor & Shane Lowry -150 Over Scott Stallings

Round 4 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections

*Weather and tee time impacts not included in the model.

Tee Times can be found here.

Core Plays 

• Justin Thomas, $10,800
• Mito Pereira, $7,500
• Patton Kizzire, $7,600

Top-Tier Plays

• Xander Schauffele, $10,000
• Sam Burns, $9,800
• Viktor Hovland, $10,200

Mid-Tier Plays

• Tyrrell Hatton, $9,100
• Matt Fitzpatrick, $9,000
• Shane Lowry, $9,200
• Alex Noren, $8,400

Value Plays

• Matthew NeSmith, $7,600
• Denny McCarthy, $7,500
• Nick Taylor, $6,700
• Troy Merritt, $7,700
• Kevin Streelman, $7,900
• Tyler Duncan, $6,300
• Bernd Wiesberger, $7,500
• Davis Riley, $7,300
• Henrik Stenson, $6,800

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Featured Image Credit: Adam Stanley/PGA Tour