Research and Stat Model: The Travelers Championship

My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.

In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.

TPC River Highlands is one of the shortest courses on the PGA schedule every year. The Pete Dye design is a Par 70 that boasts nearly half of its holes from the same yardage bucket and half of it’s approach shots from two buckets. Dye likes to use angles to create strategy off the tee while also heavily bunkering the fairway landing zones and greensides. The model this week puts a premium on ball striking, the common proximities, sand saves, and bent putting. There is also a look at who plays Pete Dye courses and short par 70s well.

This Week’s Stats

SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. We are going to have a bunch of birdies made this week by the guys at the top of the leaderboard, so sticking it close is a must.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Mark Hubbard
3. Collin Morikawa
4. Jon Rahm
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Russell Henley
7. Wyndham Clark
8. Tony Finau
9. Emiliano Grillo
10. Xander Schauffele
11. _

Birdies or Better Gained — We’re going birdies or better this week instead of opportunities gained because it’s not good enough to have the opportunity, we need the player that is going to convert those birdie putts. The greens aren’t overly difficult to hit, so let’s weight the opportunity plus the conversion at River Highlands.

1. Adam Scott
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Rick Fowler
5. Jon Rahm
6. Wyndham Clark
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Emiliano Grillo
9. Sahith Theegala
10. Eric Cole
11. _

Good Drives Gained—- Good drives gained pops here at TPC River Highlands. Despite the fact it’s a super short course, there’s a lot of water to avoid and angles that you need to attack to be in position for your second shot.

1. Matthew NeSmith
2. Austin Eckroat
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Jon Rahm
6. Denny McCarthy
7. Si Woo Kim
8. Chun-An Yu
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Lucas Glover
11. _

Pete Dye Specialists  — Pete Dye has a very unique way of creating a golf course. He likes to use a lot of bunkering in the fairway and around the green with deep lips. There will be a good amount of angles as well off the tee. He looks to hide the green from the tee box and make you put your drive in the correct place in the fairway to attack. 

1. Sungjae Im
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Brian Harman
5. Shane Lowry
6. Matt Fitzpatrick
7. Jon Rahm
8. Cameron Davis
9. Keegan Bradley
10. Tony Finau
11. _

Course Form – TPC River Highlands is one of the courses in the regular rotation each year so we have a large sample of rounds from players at this tournament. These are the players who have played this course the best. Though now that this is an elevated event

1. Ryan Moore
2. Brian Harman
3. Charley Hoffman
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Chez Reavie
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Keegan Bradley
9. Webb Simpson
10. Kevin Streelman
11. _

Strokes Gained: Short Par 70s – This stat measures which players gain the most strokes on Par 70 courses that sit at under 7200 yards.

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Russell Henley
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Kevin Kisner
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Scottie Scheffler
8. Corey Conners
9. Keegan Bradley
10. Ben An
11. _

Proximity: 125-150 — Approach shots from this range make up 17% of all approach shots on tour, but they make up 20% at River Highlands. Given the plethora of short Par 4s, we’ll see a lot of guys have 125-150 on their second shots.

1. Jon Rahm
2. Ben Martin
3. Charley Hoffman
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Tom Kim
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Webb Simpson
8. Collin Morikawa
9. Thomas Detry
10. CT Pan
11. _

Proximity: 150-175  — This is the most common approach range at River Highlands. This distance makes up one-quarter of the shots on approach which is about 5% more than average. 

1. Aaron Rai
2. Ryan Moore
3. Russell Knox
4. Sepp Straka
5. Viktor Hovland
6. Ben Martin
7. Jim Herman
8. Brandon Wu
9. Tom Hoge
10. Emiliano Grillo
11. _

Recent Form — We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Wyndham Clark
3. Rory McIlory
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Rickie Fowler
6. Viktor Hovland
7. CT Pan
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Mark Hubbard
10. Xander Schauffele
11. _

P4 Scoring: 400-450 — Eight of the 18 holes at TPC River Highlands land in this yardage bucket. Though I am weighting this in the model, I’m not giving it massive credence. The reason for this is because the angles the Dye incorporates often requires players to club down and then the hole plays a bit longer.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Aaron Rai
3. Kurt Kitayama
4. Denny McCarthy
5. Thomas Detry
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Wyndham Clark
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Stephan Jaeger
11. _

Sand Saves Gained — As I mentioned with Pete Dye’s style, guys could find themselves in the bunkers a good bit as he likes to guard the green with a bunch of small traps. The top finishers at this tournament often end the week by gaining in sand saves on the field.

1. Andrew Putnam
2. Ben Griffin
3. Peter Malnati
4. Alex Smalley
5. Danny Willett
6. Adam Schenk
7. Dylan Wu
8. Matt Kuchar
9. Tommy Fleetwood
10. Lanto Griffin
11. _

Bentgrass Putting — The green complexes are a mixture of Bent and Poa, but I personally feel the greens will roll closer to a bent type surface. Putting is always going to be important at a course where you need to make a lot of birdies.

1. Andrew Putnam
2. Ben Griffin
3. Peter Malnati
4. Alex Smalley
5. Danny Willett
6. Dylan Wu
7. Adam Schenk
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Matt Kuchar
10. Lanto Griffin
11. _

Peaking and Fading

One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.

Peaking

1. Aaron Rai
2. Russell Henley
3. Wyndham Clark
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
5. Michael Kim
6. _

Fading

1. Tony Finau
2. Jason Day
3. Max Homa
4. Justin Thomas
5. Cam Young
6. _

Statistical Top 50 Rankings

1. Patrick Cantlay	Cantlay has been steady at River Highlands over the years, but he checks all the boxes for success here. He rates out near the top in short par 70s, current form, course form, and dye design form. He’s also top ten in both recent and long term course fit with top ten rankings in Par 4s of 400-450 yards, birdies or better, and putting.
2. Viktor Hovland	Hovland checks in at number one in recent course fit with top 20 rankings in all stat categories including the proximity distances, hole distances and birdies or better. He’s also sixth in current form.
3. Xander Schauffele	Xander rates out third in short par 70 strokes gained and fourth in course form. He’s tenth in approach, fourth in good drives, and third in birdies or better.
4. Scottie Scheffler	If Scottie can get the putter working he could potentially win this tournament by several strokes. Scottie is top five in approach, good drives, 400-450 yard Par 4s, 125-150 proximity, and birdies or better. Not to mention he’s seventh or better in form, short par 70s and Dye courses.
5. Rory McIlroy	Rory has somewhat defied logic in terms of the statistical modeling because he rates out no better than 23rd in course fit over any time range, but has succeeding specifically at short par 70s, River Highlands, and Dye courses in general.
6. Tommy Fleetwood	Fleetwood ranks top ten in 400-450 yard Par 4s and sand saves as well as being fourth in form and 11th in Dye form.
7. Jon Rahm	Rahm is first course fit and fourth in short term course fit. Despite fitting the course statistically, he hasn’t had a ton of success at River Highlands or on short par 70s in general.
8. Si Woo Kim	Si Woo is often tagged as a Pete Dye guy. He rates out 15th in Dye designs. He rates out top 15 in both good drives and the common proximity range of 150-175 so if he gets those two things working he can contend.
9. Collin Morikawa	This sets up well for Morikawa as he has to be accurate off the tee and then stick short and mid irons all day. The issue for Collin as we all know is he has trouble converting with the putter. I typically like to bet him at tougher courses where you have to tread water and battle with a lower score relative to par, but he’s had weeks where the short game peaks so you can’t count him out.
10. Russell Henley	Henley’s game seems to suit TPC River Highlands as he’s 6th in approach and a really solid ball striker. He rates out 12th at this course and second overall at short par 70s. Like Morikawa he needs to find a hot putter and he should be in the mix.
11. Corey Conners
12. Hideki Matsuyama
13. Shane Lowry
14. Rickie Fowler
15. Eric Cole
16. Tony Finau
17. Jason Day
18. Andrew Putnam
19. Denny McCarthy
20. Mark Hubbard
21. Brendon Todd
22. Sepp Straka
23. Tom Kim
24. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
25. Sahith Theegala
26. Keegan Bradley
27. Aaron Rai
28. Austin Eckroat
29. Adam Scott
30. anWyndham Clark
31. CT Pan
32. Matt Fitzpatrick
33. Ryan Moore
34. Emiliano Grillo
35. Gary Woodland
36. Sungjae Im
37. Justin Thomas
38. Max Homa
39. Adam Svensson
40. Seamus Power
41. JT Poston
42. Harris English
43. Cam Young
44. Stephan Jaeger
45. Ben Martin
46. Ben An
47. Matt Kuchar
48. Brian Harman
49. Adam Schenk
50. Cameron Davis