Research and Stat Model: Honda Classic
Pat James
3 years ago
My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
Key Stats Considered
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.
SG: Approach
Pretty much every course can be described as a second-shot course, but PGA National may just be the epitome of the phrase. In players who finished top five historically at this tournament, approach has been double the importance of tee shots and triple the importance of around-the-green shots.
| 1. Russell Knox |
| 2. Nick Hardy |
| 3. Robby Shelton |
| 4. Erik Van Rooyen |
| 5. Ben Martin |
| 6. Ben Griffin |
| 7. Satoshi Kodaira |
| 8. Sepp Straka |
| 9. Sam Ryder |
| 10. Davis Riley |