Research and Key Stat Model: The Masters

My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.

In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.

Key Stats Considered

The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.

SG: Approach

The gold standard of statistical modeling, it’s crucial to gain strokes on your second shot at every course on the PGA Tour.

1. Tom Hoge

2. Tony Finau

3. Max Homa

4. Scott Scheffler

5. Collin Morikawa

6. Xander Schauffele

7. Tyrrell Hatton

8. Sepp Straka

9. Rory McIlroy

10. Viktor Hovland

Difficult GIRs Gained

Gaining greens in regulation on the field is a massive advantage. The statistics say it’s particularly important at Augusta. I’ve added the difficult filter to highlight players who hit greens when it’s tough to do so.

1. Jon Rahm

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Scott Scheffler

4. Corey Conners

5. Tony Finau

6. Shane Lowry

7. Paul Casey

8. Sungjae Im

9. Patrick Cantlay

10. Collin Morikawa

Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards

With #13 getting lengthened we can basically say all Par 5s sit between 550 and 600 yards. If the course plays especially difficult, we’re going to see most of the scoring done on the Par 5s with guys just trying to tread water on the other holes.

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Patrick Cantlay

3. Collin Morikawa

4. Tommy Fleetwood

5. Jason Day

6. Rory McIlroy

7. Sam Burns

8. Tony Finau

9. Justin Rose

10. Danny Willett

Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards

The holes measuring this distance are all among the most difficult on the course. If you can score, or at the very least, play these holes solidly during the tournament, you’re going to be in good shape.

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Max Homa

3. Patrick Cantlay

4. Viktor Hovland

5. Justin Thomas

6. Collin Morikawa

7. Si Woo Kim

8. Sepp Straka

9. Sahith Theegala

10. Tyrrell Hatton

Driving Distance

Augusta has wide, forgiving fairways on most holes. It lets big drivers really lash at the ball off the tee

1. Cam Young

2. Keith Mitchell

3. Gary Woodland

4. Jon Rahm

5. Rory McIlroy

6. Scottie Scheffler

7. Will Zalatoris

8. Sam Burns

9. Cameron Champ

10. Viktor Hovland

Three-Putt Avoidance

Statistically, golfers three-putt twice as often at Augusta than the average tour event. Lagging putts close, making par, and moving on to the next hole is an important skill.

1. Chris Kirk

2. Scottie Scheffler

3. Jason Day

4. Max Homa

5. Jon Rahm

6. JT Poston

7. Xander Schauffele

8. Keith Mitchell

9. Jordan Spieth

10. Mac Hughes

Putting: Lightning Fast and Bentgrass Combo

Year after year The Masters have the most lightning quick greens on Tour. The greens are also true Bentgrass.

1. Patrick Cantlay

2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

3. Alex Noren

4. Jon Rahm

5. Rory McIlroy

6. Mac Hughes

7. Sam Burns

8. Tony Finau

9. Justin Rose

10. Ian Poulter

SG: Around the Green

I don’t normally include strokes gained around the green in the right up though it’s often in the model. This week, it’s going to be important to get up and down because everyone will inevitably find themselves greenside in two. It takes some creativity and magic with the wedges to win at Augusta

1. Jason Day

2. Justin Thomas

3. Chris Kirk

4. Tommy Fleetwood

5. Sungjae Im

6. Danny Willett

7. Hideki Matsuyama

8. Jordan Spieth

9. Scottie Scheffler

10. Alex Noren

Current Form

The golfers playing the best at the moment. Though golf is filled with variance and the previous weeks winner is more likely to miss the cut than win again, being in the groove with your swing is a real thing in golf. Outside of Hideki two years ago, every winner of the last decade has had solid form entering the tournament.

1. Jon Rahm

2. Scottie Scheffler

3. Jason Day

4. Max Homa

5. Collin Morikawa

6. Patrick Cantlay

7. Tony Finau

8. Xander Schauffele

9. Rory McIlroy

10. Keith Mitchell

Masters Form

Augusta National requires experience. There are several nuances about the course which makes past performance pop as a correlative stat. Strokes gained at Augusta National will get a boost in the overall percentage of the model more so than other weeks.

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Dustin Johnson

4. Justin Rose

5. Jon Rahm

6. Hideki Matsuyama

7. Tiger Woods

8. Matt Kuchar

9. Justin Thomas

10. Cam Smith

Peaking and Fading

One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.

Peaking

1. Justin Rose

2. Viktor Hovland

3. Tyrrell Hatton

4. Chris Kirk

5. Collin Morikawa

Fading

1. Will Zalatoris

2. Paul Casey

3. Matt Fitzpatrick

4. Cam Davis

5. Aaron Wise

Statistical Model Top 50

1	Rory McIlroy – Rory is fifth in driving distance, 6th on Par 5s and 10th in approach. Not to mention he rates out in the top ten for every stat category including short and long term form, Masters Form, Current Form, Difficult to hit GIRs, and the putting metrics.
2	Jon Rahm – Rahm rates out fifth in Masters form, first in overall form, first in difficult to hit greens, fourth in putting, sixth in approach, and fourth in driving distance. Rahm doesn’t have one red flag in his game at the moment.
3	Tony Finau – rates out fifth in difficult GIRs, sixth in short term form, eighth in putting, seventh in form, and 16th in Masters form. Finau is an interesting bet/DK play this week as he meets all the criteria and I’m of the belief he eventually secures a major. Maybe it’s this week at Augusta
4	Scottie Scheffler – Scheffler is not the best lightning fast bentgrass putter, but that didn’t stop him last year. He still rates out second in current form, first in short term course fit, and third in difficult greens in regulation. If you’re looking to throw just one dart at the top of the board this week, Scottie repeating isn’t a bad idea.
5	Jason Day – Day has had a resurgence thanks to a swing tweak and some back healing. He rates out first in around the green, third in avoiding three-putts, and fifth in Par 5 scoring from the 550-600 range. He’s third in current form and 12th in Masters form. His only black eye statistically is he struggles to gain greens on the field at difficult courses.
6	Patrick Cantlay – Cantlay hasn’t ever had much success at Augusta, but his stats measure up nicely. He’s fourth in short term course fit and 6th in long term course fit. He’s top ten in current form and difficult GIRs hit. The thing that pops the most is that he’s top of the field in lightning fast bent putting.
7	Xander Schauffele – Another guy who leaves a little to be desired in terms of Augusta form, but he does have the experience. He rates out well on Par 5s, approach, avoiding three-putts, and is inside the top seven in short and long term course fit.
8	Dustin Johnson – There is obviously speculation about the LIV guys not playing true tournament golf, but if anyone can overcome that it’s DJ. He rates out third in Masters form and 20th in long term form.
9	Sungjae Im – Though his overall Masters form is a bit tainted by one poor year, he has two top eight finishes here in three appearances. Im rates out top ten in difficult GIRs and is currently 12th in form and 12th in fast bent putting.
10	Jordan Spieth – The top of the chart in Masters form, Spieth is playing well right now. It’s tough to ignore that most winners of this tournament also have some short game wizardry around the green that Spieth is known for.
11	Justin Rose – I really like Rose this week. Fourth in Masters form, 14th in current form, eighth in putting, and top 20 in approach, and both Par 4 and 5 distances. Rose sits inside the cutoff for all the statistics I’ve looked at so he’s another player teeing it up that meets all of the requisite criteria.
12	Collin Morikawa – Third in the Par 5 distances and sixth in the Par 4 distances, fifth in approach, tenth in difficult GIRs, and fifth in current form. Morikawa could have better Masters form, but as long as he has the prior playing experience I’m willing to overlook the 26th ranking there.
13	Cam Smith
14	Will Zalatoris
15	Justin Thomas
16	Max Homa
17	Viktor Hovland
18	Talor Gooch
19	Tyrrell Hatton
20	Shane Lowry
21	Tommy Fleetwood
22	Matt Fitzpatrick
23	Paul Casey
24	Joaquin Niemann
25	Keith Mitchell
26	Sam Burns
27	Tom Hoge
28	Abraham Ancer
29	Louis Oosthuizen
30	Keegan Bradley
31	Chris Kirk
32	Sahith Theegala
33	Corey Conners
34	Mito Pereira
35	Hideki Matsuyama
36	Sergio Garcia
37	Taylor Moore
38	Ryan Fox
39	Jason Kokrak
40	Kevin Na
41	Bubba Watson
42	Bryson Dechambeau
43	Tom Kim
44	Adam Svensson
45	Harold Varner
46	Kurt Kitayama
47	Alex Noren
48	Brooks Koepka
49	Sepp Straka
50	Seamus Power