Research and Key Stat Model: Charles Schwab Challenge

My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.

In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.

This Week’s Stats

SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. With the course being lengthened this year, I am going to put an emphasis on players that excel with their longer irons. At Colonial, approach outweighs off the tee and around the green a bit more than it does at other courses.

Scottie Scheffler

Collin Morikawa

Viktor Hovland

Tony Finau

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Akshay Bhatia

Rickie Fowler

Jordan Spieth

Sepp Straka

Tommy Fleetwood

Opportunities Gained — This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better). It’s a bit more accurate than a green in regulation stat because not all greens in regulation are the same considering a 50-foot birdie putt and 4-foot birdie putt are scored the same. I think this will be super important this week as if you aren’t super accurate, you’re probably not holding the green.

Ben Martin

Cameron Davis

Davis Riley

Scottie Scheffler

Chez Reavie

Ryan Palmer

Sungjae Im

Samuel Stevens

Viktor Hovland

Luke List

Good Drives Gained (with added emphasis on accuracy)— Good Drives Gained is a stat that measures whether the drive led to a green in regulation. Therefore it counts fairways hit, plus fringe balls that end up in a GIR. When you look at previous statistics from Colonial, GDG is crucial. I added an extra boost to the fairways hit portion of this stat, as well.

Russell Henley

Tyler Duncan

Chez Reavie

Brian Harman

Ben Martin

Carson Young

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Hayden Buckley

Si Woo Kim

Scottie Scheffler

Proximity 150-175 — The average for shots from this distance on tour is 20%. However, at Colonial nearly 25% of shots come from this distance. Given how many holes range from 400-450, that makes sense. Most guys will be able to gear down if they have a specific number they’d rather hit from.

Scott Piercy

Alex Noren

Si Woo Kim

Sepp Straka

Viktor Hovland

Russell Knox

Emiliano Grillo

Erik Van Rooyen

Jordan Spieth

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Proximity: 125-150 — I think it’s important to have a solid rating from one of the two approach distances. Some guys that can get the ball out there will have approach shots from a bit shorter. Approach shots at Colonial from 125-150 make up 20% of approach shots which is 3% more than tour average and the second most common bucket.

Chris Kirk

Jordan Spieth

Viktor Hovland

Max Homa

Scottie Scheffler

Stephan Jaeger

Aaron Rai

Tyson Alexander

Cameron Davis

Zach Johnson

Recent Form — Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it’s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.

Scottie Scheffler

Viktor Hovland

Tommy Fleetwood

Eric Cole

Tony Finau

Akshay Bhatia

Carson Young

Denny McCarthy

Joseph Bramlett

Justin Rose

Course Form – The players that have gained the most strokes, on average, at Colonial over the course of their career

Jordan Spieth

Tony Finau

Zach Johnson

Harris English

Collin Morikawa

Justin Rose

Brian Harman

Kevin Kisner

Davis Riley

Viktor Hovland

Putting from 10-15 Feet – At Colonial we see a lot more birdie putts come from outside 10 feet than the tour average. It’s the putting stat that I think will be most predictive this week.

Dylan Wu

Justin Suh

Adam Schenk

Patrick Rodgers

Sam Ryder

Cameron Davis

Eric Cole

Michael Block

Sam Burns

Justin Lower

Peaking and Fading – One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.

Peaking

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Emiliano Grillo

Akshay Bhatia

Chez Reavie

Austin Eckroat

Fading

Tom Hoge

Chris Kirk

Davis Riley

David Lipsky

Erik Van Rooyen

Stat Model Top 50 Rankings

1. Viktor Hovland	Vik and Scottie seem to be miles ahead of everyone else in the field in terms of fit and form this week. Vik ranks 9th or better in appraoch, opportunities, good drives, both proximity ranges and the Par 4 distance bucket. He’s going to need to roll some putts in obviously, but I think that’s the only thing stopping him from a win at Colonial
2. Scottie Scheffler	Scheffler is 5th or better in approach, opportunities, good drives, 125-150 proximity, and Par 4 400-450. He and Vik tied for second at Oak Hill and can ride the momentum here as the top two dogs in this week’s race.
3. Tony Finau	Finau rates out well in long-term course fit and course form. Meaning over the course of the last season he has done well in the required statistical categories. He has however fallen in in those statistical categories as of late. He’s done well enough though to land at number three in the rankings.
4. Tommy Fleetwood	Fleetwood is second in form, tenth in approach, and third in Par 4s: 400-450. He’s playing well currently and I could see him making a charge at winning this tournament.
5. Emiliano Grillo	Grill is trending in the right direction as his course fit stats rate out 7th in the short term, up from 28th in the long term. He has solid history at Colonial and also is in good form. He’s a decent DraftKings play or first round leader pick.
6. Justin Rose	Rose worries me only because he has not been accurate with the driver, but everything else checks out. He’s playing well, is solid on the Par 4 distance and proximity ranges.
7. Collin Morikawa	Morikawa seems to be the perfect fit for this course. He’s accurate off the tee, is dynamite on approach and rates out well from the proximity distances. After the Covid restart he had an lost in a playoff at Colonial so he can definitely succeed here.
8. Sepp Straka	Sepp had a really nice finish to his PGA Championship which accounts for a large portion of his top ten ranking, but he’s also a solid course fit as he rates out well in approach, good drives, and the 150-175 proximity.
9. Rickie Fowler	Given that a disproportionate amount of birdie putts come from outside 10 feet, this week could be Rickie’s chance. Like Rose, he hasn’t been super accurate off the tee, which could be a problem. He has been a solid ball striker overall though.
10. Akshay Bhatia	Akshay just needs to roll some putts in and he should be able to contend here. He’s in good form, has been 6th in approach over the last 24 rounds, and is top 15 in both opportunities gained and the 125-150 proximity.
11. Cameron Davis
12. Jordan Spieth
13. Ryan Palmer
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
15. Eric Cole
16. Si Woo Kim
17. Ben Martin
18. Andrew Putnam
19. Kurt Kitayama
20. Russell Henley
21. Chris Kirk
22. Max Homa
23. Carson Young
24. KH lee
25. Hayden Buckley
26. Stephan Jaeger
27. Nate Lashley
28. Sungjae Im
29. Joseph Bramlett
30. Denny McCarthy
31. Scott Piercy
32. Chez Reavie
33. Alex Smalley
34. Dylan Wu
35. Austin Eckroat
36. Brendon Todd
37. Michael Kim
38. Tom Hoge
39. Davis Riley
40. Andrew Novak
41. Matthew NeSmith
42. JT Poston
43. David Lingmerth
44. Mark Hubbard
45. David Lipsky
46. Nick Taylor
47. Kevin Streelman
48. Harris English
49. Thomas Detry
50. Tyler Duncan