Research and Key Stat Model: Arnold Palmer Invitational

My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.

In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.

Key Stats Considered

The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.

SG: Approach

Week after week, approach checks in as the most important of the four major stat categories. It’s non-negotiable, the top of the leaderboard will always be golfers who’ve gained strokes on the field with their second shots. In terms of T2G stats at Bay Hill, approach is nearly three times more important than off-the-tee and four times more important than around the green.

1. Tom Hoge

2. Xander Schauffele

3. Tony Finau

4. Collin Morikawa

5. Gary Woodland

6. Nick Hardy

7. Max Homa

8. Sepp Straka

9. Tom Kim

10. Robby Shelton

Opportunities Gained (Difficult)

Bay Hill sports some difficult to hit greens. Opportunities gained measures the number of times a golfer hits a green in regulation inside of 15 feet or hits a green in under regulation. Adding opportunities gained on difficult courses gives a bump to the golfers who have more birdie opportunities than the field when they are playing tough courses.

1. Cam Young

2. Scottie Scheffler

3. Tom Hoge

4. Xander Schauffele

5. Justin Thomas

6. Davis Riley

7. Jordan Spieth

8. Tony Finau

9. Jon Rahm

10. Max Homa

Good Drives Gained

The distance at Bay Hill is a bit overstated. There are a few short Par 4s and Par 5s with four long par 3s. Instead of focusing on distance or accuracy, I think it’s smart to choose good drives. A good drive is either a tee shot that comes to rest in the fairway or a tee shot that resulted in a green in regulation on the second shot. So golfers aren’t penalized for hitting the ball into the first cut.

1. Justin Suh

2. Collin Morikawa

3. Aaron Rai

4. Jon Rahm

5. Jason Day

6. Gary Woodland

7. Tony Finau

8. Russell Henley

9. Hayden Buckley

10. Adam Hadwin

Proximity: 200+ yards

A massive 30% of approach shots come from 200+ yards, with the tour average being about 23%. This makes sense when you factor in the whole length of the Par 3s and Par 5s. A look at the proximity gained leaderboard makes it readily apparent you have to be excellent from this distance.

1. Gary Woodland

2. Adam Svensson

3. Jon Rahm

4. Tom Hoge

5. Sungjae Im

6. Patrick Cantlay

7. Collin Morikawa

8. Davis Riley

9. Tom Kim

10. Keegan Bradley

Par 3 Scoring: 200+ yards

Though 200+ yard proximity and Par 3 scoring of 200+ yards is a bit redundant, I think it’s important to include both because there is a distinct difference in the skill. Essentially, all Par 3s at Bay Hill are 200+. Hole 7 can play shorter depending on the tee box for the day, but given it usually sits at 199 yards, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say all four Par 3 holes are from 200+

1. Tom Kim

2. Sam Burns

3. Emiliano Grillo

4. Nick Hardy

5. Joseph Bramlett

6. Aaron Baddeley

7. Gary Woodland

8. Jason Day

9. Viktor Hovland

10. Tom Hoge

Par 5 Scoring

With four Par 5s at Bay Hill and birdies not easy to come by, Par 5 scoring is vital. If you isolate the top five finishers historically, playing the Par 5s well is something all players have in common.

1. Jon Rahm

2. Wyndham Clark

3. Garrick Higgo

4. Justin Thomas

5. Collin Morikawa

6. Shane Lowry

7. Tony Finau

8. Patrick Cantlay

9. Rory McIlroy

10. Keith Mitchell

Lightning/Fast Bermuda Putting

The Florida swing puts an emphasis on Bermuda putting. More recently, the greens at Bay Hill have been some of the fastest on tour. You have to go back to 2017 to find a round that the greens during the API didn’t roll at least fast, so I think it’s safe to say targeting the best fast Bermuda putters is at least something to consider.

1. Ben Taylor

2. Sam Burns

3. Kevin Kisner

4. Matt Fitzpatrick

5. Zach Johnson

6. Brendon Todd

7. Alex Noren

8. Mac Hughes

9. Taylor Montgomery

10. Adam Hadwin

Current Form

The golfers playing the best at the moment. Though golf is filled with variance and the previous weeks winner is more likely to miss the cut than win again, being in the groove with your swing is a real thing in golf.

1. Jon Rahm

2. Scottie Scheffler

3. Max Homa

4. Jason Day

5. Chris Kirk

6. Sahith Theegala

7. Nick Taylor

8. Keith Mitchell

9. Sam Ryder

10. Collin Morikawa

Course History

The players who’ve gained the most strokes at Bay Hill over the years.

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Tyrell Hatton

3. Francesco Molinari

4. Sungjae Im

5. Scottie Scheffler

6. Jason Day

7. Justin Rose

8. Matt Fitzpatrick

9. Tommy Fleetwood

10. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Peaking and Fading

One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.

Peaking

1. Wyndham Clark

2. Nate Lashley

3. Justin Suh

4. Garrick Higgo

5. Rickie Fowler

Fading

1. Matthew Nesmith

2. Brian Harman

3. Cam Davis

4. Emiliano Grillo

5. Tom Kim

Stat Model Final Rankings

1. Jon Rahm – Three wins in his last five starts is pretty good. He’s basically 13th or better in every stat category outside of the bermuda putting. It’s not a shock that Rahm rates out well, but at Bay Hill specifically he has the long iron and Par 5 game to contend once again

2. Xander Schauffele – Xander is 2nd in approach, 4th in difficult opportunities gained, and doesn’t rate out worse than 4th in any time range in the course fit modeling. If he doesn’t contend this week it will most likely be because the putter let him down.

3. Scottie Scheffler

4. Collin Morikawa – I tend to gravitate to Morikawa in weeks that it’s not going to be a birdie-fest. He rates out almost dead last in the field in fast bermuda putting, but at the top in everything else. In a grind it out tournament where most guys are scrambling to save par, Morikawa, who rates out 4th in approach, 7th in 200+ proximity, 2nd in good drives, and 5th in Par 5 scoring, will have an advantage just by having birdie putts.

5. Rory McIlroy

6. Max Homa – Third in overall form, 10th in difficult opportunities gained, 7th in approach, Homa continues to play well week after week. He’s rated 15th in course form as well so he checks nearly every box for Bay Hill

7. Will Zalatoris – Rates out 15th or better in Par 5 scoring, off-the-tee, approach, and overall form. Zalatoris short term course fit is his best rating so he’s primed for a high finish

8. Viktor Hovland – Other than Max Homa, Viktor Hovland is actually the second best fast Bermuda putter in this field over the last 24 rounds. The narrative that his short game is holding him back isn’t holding much weight right now. Aside from the putting numbers, he is 9th in Par 5 scoring, 13th in approach, and top 20 in course fit from every round range.

9. Tony Finau

10. Tom Hoge – Tom Hoge’s form is kind of going backwards, but he’s an excellent course fit. He’s 3rd in difficult opportunities gained and 11th or better in all course fit ranges. He’s specifically good from the 200+ proximity ranges.

11. Sungjae Im

12. Gary Woodland – Woodland may be the best course fit of the week. He’s 8th off-the-tee, 5th in approach, 7th in 200+ Par 3 scoring, 1st in overall 200+ proximity, and 6th in good drives. He rates out 1st in short term course fit.

13. Patrick Cantlay

14. Justin Rose – Rose rates out solidly across the board. He doesn’t pop in any specific course fit metric, but there aren’t red flags either. He’s a good mix of current form (16th), course fit (25th), and course history (7th)

15. Tom Kim

16. Shane Lowry

17. Tyrell Hatton – Hatton has a win recent API win, putting his course history rating at number two. He’s also an excellent fast Bermuda putter (11th), is in decent form (23rd), and hits difficult greens better than the field average (21st).

18. Ben Griffin

19. Luke List

20. Jason Day – 7th in course fit, 4th in current form, and 5th in course history puts Day in potentially the best overall spot. His overall rating is dinged a bit by his putting and scoring in difficult conditions.

21. Wyndham Clark

22. Adam Hadwin

23. Justin Thomas

24. Chris Kirk

25. Alex Smalley

26. Cam Young – Hasn’t been playing as great as we’d expect, but that’s because our expectations are incredibly high. Rates out 1st in difficult opportunities gained, has a 13th place finish here last year, and his short term course fit is his best rating which we always like to see.

27. Joseph Bramlett

28. Brian Harman

29. Corey Conners – Gains strokes on difficult courses, gains strokes in the wind, is great with his long irons, and has a 3rd and 11th in his last two appearances at Bay Hill. The guy can’t putt, but similar to Morikawa, maybe the lack of birdies needed to win here will help him grind out a high finish.

30. Sam Ryder

31. Davis Riley – Had a solid run at PGA National. Checks the boxes on approach (15th), 200+ proximity (8th), and difficult opportunities gained (6th). He’s also pretty solid on fast bermuda (30th).

32. Will Gordon

33. Sahith Theegala

34. Nick Hardy

35. Thomas Detry

36. Keith Mitchell – Mitchell qualifies as a peaking player as his course fit and overall play has gotten stronger over the last 50 rounds. He’s currently 8th in form and has two top six finishes here in the last four tries.

37. Matthew NeSmith

38. Lee Hodges

39. Adam Svensson

40. Rickie Fowler – Fowler hasn’t been lighting the particular course fit stats on fire, but rates out well in current form and course history.

41. Justin Suh

42. Keegan Bradley

43. Taylor Moore

44. Nate Lashley

45. Erik Barnes

46. Nick Taylor

47. Eric Cole

48. Sepp Straka

49. Tommy Fleetwood

50. Jordan Spieth – Spieth hasn’t been playing his best recently, but he does have solid history at the API. Combine that with him being 7th overall in hitting difficult greens and checks out as a solid buy low candidate.