RBC Heritage: Best Bets by Brian Kirschner

The Masters’ hangover is here. After all the highs and lows of the most celebrated event on the PGA Tour, we are headed to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage. Although this is an obvious letdown spot for the Tour and a lot of fans, this is still a great event. 

The best thing about this week is that the field is extremely bad for its spot in the schedule. We have the likes of Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, and Cameron Smith teeing it up week. 

The thing that is great about the RBC: Heritage is that many of the odds for mid-tier guys are better than normal. There are a lot of favorable odds and value present that we are certainly going to capitalize on given the names at the top of the board

I think an overall important betting strategy is to not get deterred by last week’s results. Bettors have a tendency to overact to last week. If they went up big, they will increase their exposure and bet more than normal. On the flip side, if they have a bad week, they will decrease their exposure. You should always keep everything the same in these instances, there is too much variance to make a decision like that after just one week. 

I am once again looking for in-form ball-strikers, that are great with their middle irons and have success on other shorter, positional, Pete Dye Bermuda courses. Your Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar Types, who have both won here. 

Golfers are going to be hitting less than driver, to get themselves on the right side of the fairway. Another thing to note is that these greens are extremely small so another reason to back excellent mid-iron players. 

Here are my favorite bets for the RBC Heritage. 

Outright: Shane Lowry +2200 (BetMGM)

As we all know it is extremely difficult to hit PGA outrights. There is just so much variance and things that have to go right for it to happen. With all that being said, I am very confident that Shane Lowry will win this event. 

Lowry is a golfer that is playing some of the best golf on the PGA Tour right now. In his last four starts on Tour he has gone, 2nd, 13th, 12th, and 3rd. He was absolutely amazing in every facet of the game at The Masters and is now due for a win. Lowry does not have many more chances to capitalize on this hot streak that he’s on. I think there is a strong case to be made that it is this week at RBC. 

Lowry has two top-10 finishes at this event, including a 3rd place finish in 2019. Lowry was also the first-round leader that year. He can club down off the tee, is excellent with his mid-irons, and has a superb short game. He will win his first event this week since his Major victory at Portrush.

Top 10 Matt Fitzpatrick +220 (BetMGM) 

A top-10 bet is the perfect wager for Matt Fitzpatrick. The reason being is that is he someone that does not frequent the winners circle on tour, but he often finds himself in the top 10. At this point in time, I do not trust him to close out a PGA Tour event, so I’m going to go with a top-10 wager instead.

This Englishman finished top 10 in his last outing at this event and gained a staggering 7.7 strokes putting. Also, in his last six starts on the PGA, he ended inside the top 10 over half the time. This is exactly what I am looking for, someone that consistently finishes within the top 10.  

I think Fitzpatrick continues his strong performance and nabs a 7th place finish at +220

Top 20: Adam Hadwin +230 (DraftKings)

If three straight top-10 finishes in his last three starts isn’t enough to back someone, I don’t know what is. Hadwin is certainly in some great form, this is shown in all his strokes gained numbers. 

This Canadian has gained 7.4 and 9.9 strokes from tee to green in his last two outings, where he finished 7th and 4th, respectively.

Hadwin also has some great results on some similar comp courses that I like. 10th at the Wyndham last summer, and 14th at Pebble Beach just a few months ago. Hadwin is trending towards a win, so +230 on a top 20 is a great price. 

Top 40: Kevin Streelman +120 (DraftKings) 

At a place where older longshots have prospered, I think Streelman fits that build this week. Streelman has finished well inside the top 40 in four of his last five starts. He was 18th at Valero, 7th at Valspar, 22nd at The Players, and 16th at the Honda. 

This is another example of a golfer that is trending in the right direction for The RBC Heritage. Streelman has been able to nab such high finishes given his stellar around the green game. He has gained 4.1 and 4.6 strokes around the green in his last two starts. Streelman also has shown success at this very venue over the years with back-to-back top 7 finishes in 2019 and 2018. This bet should cash easily. 

Special: First Round Leader: Russel Henley +4800 (FanDuel)

Russel Henley is known to disappoint, whether it’s blowing two massive leads at the Sony and Wyndham (two great comps) or falling out of the top 20 late on Sunday, but it always seems to happen. That is why Russell is the perfect first-round leader bet this week. He is very much known to get off to hot starts and fade away, and all we need is one round. Henley is without a doubt one of the best mid-iron players on tour. This Georgia Bulldog ranks 7th in ball-striking and 2nd in approach over the past 50 rounds. I have never been so confident in a 40/1+ bet in my life.

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