Another week where we’ll be looking at a course we’ve not seen before on tour, but the stakes are a bit lower with a smallish purse here in Toronto.

If you’re looking for more info on the course and somehow missed it, Ron did a great write up this week with plenty of info and key stats to dig into.

TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley

• Location: Alton, Ontario, 48 miles northwest of Toronto.
• Established: 2001, designed by Doug Carrick; renovated in 2023 by Ian Andrew with PGA Tour consultation.
• Type: Parkland-style, wide fairways (avg. 37 yards), strategic bunkers, and large greens.
• Par: 70
• Length: 7,389 yards
• Field Size: 156 players
• Greens Surface: Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix.
• Rough/Length: Bluegrass, 3.75″ long.

Purse: $9.8 million. The winner will receive $1.764 million

Let’s dig in.

Cutmakers

I did end up sorting just by Made Cut% this week and looking at some unique names pop to the top.  This particular split is sorted by only long golf courses to see how the field had played the past couple of years on courses with some length to it.  It’s hard to judge a couple of the guys who’ve spent time on the DP World Tour, but it’s hard to ignore the international flair this top ten ranking has.  Emiliano Grillo is an interesting name I’ve seen tossed around a bit this week, as he’s starting to round into form.

Driving Distance

While the company line is “the bunkering is going to make bomb and gouge hard”, I still absolutely believe that the guys with the most distance are going to tear apart a few of these holes.  The betting favorite is definitely in this group of players, as well is the very trendy Taylor Pendrith, but there are a few names way down the board that also hit piss-missiles and could find themselves in good position all week.

Long Irons

Going along with the bomber theme, there will be a handful of holes where you can just wedge-and-putt to birdie, but with some longer par-3s and a handful of long par-4s mixed in, longer irons are going to matter.  This is sorted by overall proximity from 150-200 yards on courses with LARGE greens.  This is the only chart that doesn’t have Rory listed in the top ten, as it’s a bit granular, but this is certainly another nice piece of evidence for anyone wanting to try and catch a falling knife with Aberg at the moment.

Scorers

Finally, I just wanted to look at birdies or better rates coming in to see who’s been able to take advantage of scoring opportunities. This is the smallest sample size I’ve used so far, only the past six months (essentially just 2025). Late entry Cam Champ is in the mix, but so is FRL God Keith Mitchell.

Recapping Last Week

None of my picks for the Memorial did awful, but none stand out either, just a ho-hum week on a tough course while Scottie cruised

Collin Morikawa T20
Corey Conners T25
Shane Lowry T23
Tommy Fleetwood T16
Patrick Cantlay T12

RBC Canadian Open One and Done Suggestions

With the smaller purse and the major on the horizon, it’s probably a good time to grab the second-tier golfers who can absolutely win this thing and also don’t have the luxury of looking ahead to next week.  Pendrith should be VERY popular, and maybe it’s a name you want to take if you’re in or near the lead and would be fine just riding the wave for a week.  The names I like this week aren’t too far off from last week, as they are the guys who are in form and also, for the most part, seem to match up well with this course.

Corey Conners
Shane Lowry
Keith Mitchell
Harry Hall